Two worlds - two wars. Part One
I will say right away – I am not in any way a military analyst. I have a very indirect relation to the army, although thanks to the institute's military department I have the rank of a reserve lieutenant. I have an extremely negative attitude to weapons, especially in the hands of civilians. This attitude was finally formed also thanks to the same military department, when we were sent to one of the military units near Moscow for exercises.
Out of youthful dullness, or maybe because of a desire to show off in front of fellow female students, I hastily chose a hand-held machine gun from the proposed arsenal – I really liked this "toy". But after a couple of hundred meters of the march, I realised what an idiot I was. Since then, I have avoided picking up any shooting device and have a double respect for those for whom holding a weapon is a profession.
But I studied the history of mankind quite deeply at the time. And, unfortunately, none of its centuries lived without war. So, willingly or unwittingly, you plunge into this unpleasant topic. Therefore, I will allow myself to act as a kind of "sofa analyst" and try to speculate about what is happening with our "military operation" in Ukraine, since the beginning of which a month and a half has passed.
Washington, and then the West as a whole, began to make a fuss ahead of time around the "imminent invasion" of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. And their military observers and "analysts" even began to play a kind of sweepstake: in how many days our troops will be able to reach Kiev. Some bet on "two or three days", others on a slightly longer period, while complaining that in any case, the "Russians" will surely be able to beat the American "record" in 21 days, during which the US armed forces, together with their allies, "conquered" Iraq.
Almost on the third day after the start of the "special military operation", representatives of the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defence of Great Britain began to gloat on the topic that the Russian "blitzkrieg" failed and the rapid offensive choked both because of, allegedly, the active resistance of the UAF and the battalions of the National Guard, as well as problems with logistics and rear support. The comedian\President of Ukraine (underline whichever is correct), in his next speech, generally stated that the valiant Ukrainian army managed to stop the Russian offensive and even go on a counteroffensive in a number of regions.
And if to listen to the victorious speeches of his adviser Arestovich, who is clearly haunted by the laurels of Hitler's closest associate "Doctor" Goebbels, who laid the foundations of modern "information warfare", then the UAF are already practically on the outskirts of Moscow.
And here's what, in my opinion, is actually happening.
There are, if to say it quite simply, two main models of warfare.
One of them, if we use universal terms, can be called "barbaric". This approach is certainly correct from the point of view of military strategy and tactics, as it helps to avoid unnecessary losses in manpower and equipment, but leads to huge destruction and casualties among the civilian population. Again, if we explain it simple terms, it looks like this: before the start of any offensive – global or local – a massive bomb or missile strike is carried out on enemy positions.
Some call it "scorched earth" tactics, others – "carpet bombing". But the essence of this does not change. This is how the fascists acted during the Great Patriotic War, razing our cities to the ground. This is how American and British aircraft destroyed German cities to the ground in 1944-45.
It is precisely in this way that the US military "worked" in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, while also using napalm that burned people. It was in this way that NATO bombed Yugoslavia, in addition using banned phosphorus bombs and radioactive warheads, and also operated in the same Iraq.
Anyone who wants to see what happens after such strikes with cities, look on the Internet at least for photos of Syrian cities that have been razed to the ground or destroyed Belgrade.
It is clear that such a technique can be justified in situations where the attacking side does not care, that is, it is indifferent to how much will be destroyed and what, and how many civilians will be killed.
I think that it is clear to all reasonable people that it is impossible for Russia to conduct military operations in this particular situation in this way. Therefore, we have to act on the second model – I will call it the "sparing" one.
Its task is to try to exclude civilian casualties as much as possible, as well as the destruction of cities and settlements. This method is "sparing" in relation to civilians, but at the same time, as it is clear even to a layperson, is much more difficult to perform for troops, which can inevitably suffer greater losses than with the first option.
Someone might say that I'm trying to pass off the desirable for reality. But then, apparently, these people will first have to prove that one of the leading American military analysts, retired US Army Colonel McGregor, is actually reincarnated "Colonel Isaev", aka Max Otto von Stirlitz from "Seventeen Moments of Spring".
Here's what McGregor said in one of his recent TV interviews: "I think people will discover over the next couple of weeks that the losses taken by Ukrainian forces have been enormous, much much larger than anyone cares to admit. I think we will also have a different view on Russian operations. Remember that Russians are different from us, we do things differently. Many of us thought that when Russian forces entered Ukraine that they would come in like a sledgehammer. In reality, they didn’t do that at all." He added:
“One of the principal reasons was that Putin made it very clear to his generals: ‘when this is over, we would like to live with Ukrainians’.
Remember, his goals were very straightforward: number one - neutrality for the Ukrainian state; number two - autonomy or independence for the Donbass republics as well as an agreements that Russian-speaking citizens, people living in Ukraine who are Russian, will not be treated badly, they will not be second–class citizens anymore, and they have been. And then finally - renounce any further claim on Crimea. Crimea was never Ukrainian, it was never part of Ukraine. When that all goes back to Khrushchev and his drinking bout in the 1950s, after which he awarded his buddies in Kiev, who were Russians, by the way, control of Crimea, that all goes by the wayside. Those are the basic conditions, and as far as I can tell, they have never changed."
"Russians are different from us", "Many of us thought that when Russian forces entered Ukraine that they would come in like a sledgehammer" - these are the key words from his statement. That is, in he confirms that the strategy of the Russian General Staff in Ukraine consists precisely in the application of targeted strikes on military facilities. And this is not a lie or propaganda.
Quite unexpectedly, the veracity of this statement was confirmed by the same Arestovich, who clumsily tried to calm the Ukrainians the other day. He urged not to sow panic around the allegedly massive strikes planned by Russia on cities.
"They will hit military-industrial complex facilities if they will do, or infrastructure, and again, if they will do," this figure said. According to him, a missile can hit a civilian object only if it does not reach the target or, for example, if it will be shot down by air defence systems, and as a result it will fall on a residential building. By the way, he had previously admitted that Russia had practically destroyed the military industry of Ukraine.
To be honest, at first I didn't even understand what the hell made him suddenly tell the truth for no reason, because before that only lies came out of his mouth, and it was according to the same Goebbels principle "the more monstrous the lie, the sooner they will believe it”. But then it dawned on me: in Kiev, they strive to ensure that as many civilians as possible remain in cities and towns. For what reason?
In my opinion, everyone already understands this, but let the essence of this cynical and criminal approach be appreciated by the same MacGregor, who in the same interview said that the "Ukrainian resistance" "behaves like ISIS" and "commits terrible atrocities”. And, as is known, the terrorists of ISIS, who were fed by the United States themselves at one time, became "famous" for hiding behind the civilian population.
Yes, of course, many of the subjected to destruction facilities are located on the outskirts or near settlements and cities. And, of course, their residents, who have to live in basements, subways and bomb shelters, are incredibly scared. And I certainly sincerely sympathise with them.
In addition, at first the local authorities deliberately caused panic among the population. The boxer\mayor (underline whichever is correct) of Kiev Klitschko, who apparently had his brain completely beaten up in ring battles, from the first day of our operation scared the people of Kiev with night bombardments, and even named the "exact time" of the strike, either 3 in the morning, or 5 in the morning. Thus, the Ukrainian authorities artificially provoked several million Ukrainians to stampede abroad.
By the way, gradually this flow begins to return back. I've just read in the news that for the first time since the beginning of the military operation, the number of people returning to Ukraine through the Lvov region exceeded the number of those leaving. And on the highways leading to Kiev traffic jams were formed.
The fact that no massive strikes are being carried out on populated areas is, in fact, recognised by the international "fake factory", which has so far failed to throw in a single photo of evidence. And those ones with which the gullible people are being frightened are easy to refute. These are either photographs of the consequences of American bombing in the Middle East, or the "remains" of those missiles that did not reach the target, which Arestovich spoke about, or the barbaric shelling by the "Nazis" of the cities of the DPR and LPR, or those civilian objects in the past that were used for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The height of idiocy was the "excursion" organised last month by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to one of the settlements in the east, where, allegedly, a "Russian missile" hit a kindergarten. They somehow punched a hole in the wall there, but even I, as a layman, understand that with such a hit, only ruins would remain from the kindergarten. And there were not even any fragments left, not a single glass was broken, and the soccer balls in the room which were on the shelves still calmly remained there.
But it was necessary to see the faces of the neatly combed and pomaded correspondents of CNN and other TV companies, who, almost with tears in their eyes, spoke against the background of shelves with soccer balls about the "atrocities of the Russian military”. An idiot on an idiot, and an idiot drives.
But the worst thing is that naive Western people believe them.
At the same time, they still do not want to believe that if there is indeed someone who is shooting at cities now, and while retreating, blow up bridges and destroy other civilian infrastructure, it's the UAF and the "Nazis" from the infamous “Azov” battalions and the like, and who really leave behind themselves scorched earth. And at the same time, they also use "cluster warheads" prohibited by international conventions to bombard Donetsk and other liberated cities.
To date, as Russian Defence Minister Shoigu said the other day, Russia has completed the "first stage" of the military operation. The territories of the LPR and the DPR have been almost completely liberated, and by the time of writing this article, our troops had come close to the two largest Ukrainian cities – Kharkov and Kiev (my God, when could I have thought that I would write such lines), but they are in no hurry to enter them.
Moreover, in order to give impetus to peace negotiations with Ukraine, it was even decided to reduce military activity in this direction, which, to be honest, I, as a simple layman, cannot understand. To surrender already occupied territories means to retreat. And any retreat, on the contrary, inevitably weakens the negotiating positions, and this should already be clear from history. And the very near history says that the Kiev "negotiators" cannot be trusted. They have been leading Russia and the whole of Europe around by the nose for eight years. To believe them is like putting goats to guard cabbage.
To be continued…