Why does Turkey need to control Kabul airport?

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkey has made so many mistakes in foreign policy over the past 10 years in the entire history of the republic that it is difficult to recall similar scales. The constant mistakes made in Syria since the beginning of the war in 2011, the cancellation of Turkey's membership process because it does not need the European Union, the sacrifice of relations with many countries in the Middle East, especially with Egypt, because of following the ideology of the Ikhwans. Now the AKP is on the verge of making another serious mistake in Afghanistan.

The United States and its allies suffered a heavy defeat in Afghanistan. They finally saw that they had no chance of winning, and they are leaving Afghanistan. However, the AKP government wants to continue to keep the soldiers of the Turkish armed forces in Afghanistan, as well as take a contract for the maintenance and security of the airport in Kabul. Details are being discussed with the US. But, as many times before, this was done on the basis of superficial assessments, and not a comprehensive analysis of the situation - we are faced with an impulsive decision that puts the daily interests of the authorities first.

Over the past 20 years, 7,400 US soldiers and their allies have died in Afghanistan, and a huge budget of $115 billion has been spent annually, but America has not been able to achieve its goals. President Joe Biden, who took office in Washington in January 2021, created a working group on a new policy, which included Afghan experts, to decide whether to continue or complete this process. It was decided to completely withdraw the troops. In short, even in Washington, many now recognise that the US adventure in Afghanistan is one of the biggest failures of foreign policy.

Can the Turkish forces provide security in Kabul and at the airport?

Now Afghanistan has two options: either the Taliban will regain power in all or most of the country, or the country will again be plunged into a bloody fight for power. The Taliban still controls large territories in Afghanistan, and there are reports that these territories are rapidly increasing. The issue of ensuring security at the Kabul airport should not be considered as the only task. The fate of the airport depends on the fate of Kabul. After the US leaves, control of the airport will pass to the one who controls Kabul.

Currently, Kabul is controlled by the US-backed Afghan government, and Turkish forces provide security at the airport. However, after the US leaves, the Taliban will certainly want to seize Kabul and take control of the airport. In this matter, the Turkish armed forces do not have the opportunity to independently determine the fate of Kabul and, accordingly, the airport. Moreover, the Turkish armed forces are not an independent force in this region, they will be there on the basis of the political and economic support of the United States. Under these circumstances, if the Taliban capture Kabul, we should not expect them to agree that the airport should be controlled by US-backed forces.

It seems that AKP decision-makers rely on Turkey's traditionally good relations with Pakistan. However, the statements and actual practice of Pakistan in relation to the Taliban have always been different. Even the United States, whose influence on Pakistan is stronger than that of Turkey, could not achieve the desired results in this matter. Relying on Pakistan in an unknown situation in Afghanistan is very risky. AKP may soon be forced to say that "Pakistan has deceived us".

President Erdogan said that it is easier for the Taliban to negotiate with Turkey, because "Turkey has nothing contradictory on the issue of faith”. It is quite obvious that the Taliban’s understanding of Islam has nothing to do with the Islam of Turkey. It is clear that Erdogan meant that both Turkey and the Taliban are Muslims, so it will be easier for them to negotiate. However, the parties with whom the Taliban have waged the bloodiest wars to date have always been Muslims, so this expectation is unrealistic.

What interests of Turkey will be served by the duty to protect Kabul airport?

Obviously, the main reason for AKP is its desire to improve relations with the United States. On the one hand, they accuse the opposition of caving in under the Americans, on the other hand, they themselves go out of their way to win the favour of America. The AKP’s Kabul project is fraught with many risks. The Turkish armed forces may face difficult situations at the site. The historical friendly relations with Afghanistan may suffer. Contrary to expectations, trusting relations with America and Pakistan can be seriously undermined. This may negatively affect the importance of Turkey in the countries of Central Asia. Turkey may lose its reputation. As control is lost, terrorism may increase.

A new wave of immigration is inevitable

In exchange for the risks assumed, Turkey will gain little. The duty to protect the Kabul airport will also not help solve the problem of Afghan immigrants. Ankara should abandon the Kabul project and direct its energy to a more effective solution to the problem of Afghan immigrants, whose number is likely to grow. According to the UN, Turkey is the country with the largest number of immigrants in the world.

This situation was achieved during AKP's rule. Unfortunately, the Erdogan government used immigrants from Syria, Afghanistan or other countries as blackmail against European countries. At rallies and bilateral meetings, Erdogan directly poured out threats, stating: "Look, otherwise we will open the doors!".

Afghans are the second largest group of immigrants after Syrians. According to the study, at least 200,000 Afghan immigrants live illegally in Istanbul alone. The total number of Afghan immigrants in Turkey is close to one million. Their exact number is unknown. According to the Directorate General of Migration Management under the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Turkey, the number of Afghans, who made up the largest group among 455,000 illegal migrants detained in 2019, amounted to 201,000 people.

In fact, we are looking at even more large-scale immigration from Afghanistan than from Syria. According to experts, their total number may grow to 5-6 million. We will receive money from the EU, and the AKP government turns a blind eye to this immigration in order to use the element of bargaining.

Ankara's interest in Afghanistan coincides with its actions in Northern Cyprus

It is interesting that Ankara's interest in Afghanistan coincided with its actions in Northern Cyprus. The statements made by President and AKP Chairman Tayyip Erdogan during his visit to Northern Cyprus caused a stormy reaction in the world. The opposition parties of Northern Cyprus did not listen to Erdogan's speech in the Parliament of Cyprus.

In an interview with the Turkish Ambassador in Nicosia, Kaya Türkmen, carried out by the journalist Aysu Basri Akter for the Yeni Yüzyıl newspaper, we can find out the opinion and expectations of the AKP government regarding Northern Cyprus. The problems of interference and guardianship in relation to Cyprus, which have been discussed from different sides on the political agenda for many years, since the last presidential election, have manifested themselves in much more vivid examples. Kaya Türkmen assumed this post on August 1, 2010.

According to Türkmen, Northern Cyprus has always reacted to Ankara's intervention. On January 28, 2011, during Cyprus’ Deputy Prime Minister of that period Cemil Çiçek’s visit to the island, opposition parties and trade unions of that time held a rally in response to the policy of the AKP government in Cyprus. During this rally, trade unions came out with banners saying "Ankara, we do not need your money, nor your civil servants, nor your soldiers”.

This caused the Turkish authorities to react sharply - first and foremost, the Prime Minister of Turkey, Erdogan, who held the post of Prime Minister at that time. All that remains in my memory after all these disputes are the words of Cemil Çiçek: "On Friday they cursed, on Monday they took money," as well as the crisis of "feeding" that began after Erdogan's statements: "It is significant that those who are fed by our country chose this path."

After this crisis, Ambassador Kaya Türkman was removed from his post. However, Türkman explains the reason for his dismissal in the following words: "Why was I removed from my post? I think the real reason is that the Government of the Republic of Turkey did not like my style of work as Ambassador in Nicosia. When I was appointed to Nicosia, the line of action that I mentally drew was that I should never forget that we are the only state that recognises Northern Cyprus as an independent country, and that I should determine my behaviour accordingly. However, the attitude of our government was different… I foolishly realised too late that Ankara wanted me to be perceived and act as a governor, and not as an ambassador. How good that I did this stupid thing."

Kaya Türkman, who explained his dismissal by this difference in understanding, and especially by the point of view of Cemil Çiçek, notes the following: "I once said to Minister Cemil Çiçek: ‘Dear Minister, you come here, rush through with a din, and then get on your plane and fly away. I am here, and every day I meet with my Cypriot friends. If you want, be a bad cop. But with your permission, I will be a good policeman’. He didn't like it very much... because of this approach and the difference in style, our stars and the minister never got together. Then he already started to pull my rope...".

Confessions of an initiated person regarding Cyprus

Sedat Peker, a mafia leader who during the 20 years of AKP's rule featured in many cases in cooperation with the state, fled the country due to internal conflicts and began posting his confessions on YouTube. He made nine videos on this topic, which in total have gained more than 100 million views.

In his seventh video, posted on May 23, which was watched by 10 million people in the first 24 hours, Peker said that after the detention of 4.9 tons of cocaine in Colombia, a new route was determined, and that now the drugs are being transported through Venezuela. Peker also said that Erkam Yıldırım, the son of former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım, went to Venezuela in January and February last year to study this route. Peker also claims that Turkey was chosen as a distribution centre for the Middle East and other regions in connection with Cyprus and Syria, and that former Interior Minister Mehmet Ağar is at the centre of this wheel.

Peker says which hotels, casinos, contacts, names, addresses, connections are involved for this turnover in Cyprus. In the same video, he says that the son of former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım, Erkam Yıldırım, has repeatedly traveled to Venezuela, calling Binali Yıldırım’s statements false and stupid, in his defence, he said that he "took tests and masks to those in need of fighting the coronavirus”.

After Peker's statements, the Turkish police detained 1.5 tons of marijuana off the coast of Syria on May 17. On the same day, 1 ton of captagon tablets was seized, which arrived at the port of LimakPort İskenderun for shipment to the United Arab Emirates. This was perceived as an operation to restore the image.

Cocaine barons settled in Turkey

Statements that Turkey plays a role in the transfer of heroin in the form of a continuation of the Afghan-Iranian line, as well as regarding its transformation into a distribution base for cocaine from Latin America to Europe or the Middle East, have acquired new dimensions after the allegations of the leader of the criminal group Sedat Peker.
After the Colombian police announced that on June 9, 2020, 4.9 tons of cocaine were seized in the port of Buenaventura, the destination of which was Turkey, it became clear that the Turkish direction was gaining weight. On May 5, 2021, 616 packages of cocaine were found in the port of PSA in Panama, sent from the port of Puerto Bolivar in Ecuador. The cargo delivery address is the port of Mersin.

The port of Puerto Bolivar, where the containers in which cocaine was found were loaded, has been managed by the Turkish company Yılport since 2016. The agreement on the transfer of the port for 50 years was signed in February 2016 in the presence of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President of Ecuador Rafael Correa. Yılport denied the accusations of negligence, saying that the number of seized drugs has increased nine-fold since the port of Puerto Bolivar was transferred to them.

Another notable case related to Latin America occurred in Dilovasi, Kocaeli. At the port of Yılport in Dilovasi, Kocaeli, 540 kilograms of cocaine loaded in Brazil were found. According to the report compiled during the first inspection on August 22, 2020 in the port, the ship was clean. However, after being notified of the cover-up of the crime, during a second search conducted two days later by other employees, 540 packages of cocaine were found.

In other words, after Peker's statement the traffic of cocaine - which the press is not able to prevent, the state authorities ignore, and politicians do not pay attention to - this time produced the effect of an exploding bomb. In a video released on May 6, Peker claims that the cocaine seized in Colombia in June 2020 was heading to the port of Izmir, and that former Interior Minister Mehmet Ağar had a share in this cargo, and that the current Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu turned a blind eye to this without initiating an investigation into this case.

Soylu said in a TV interview on May 24 that the final destination of the cargo was the port of Mersin, and not Ambarli, that Colombia wanted to know what the investigation would lead to, so he did not disclose this information. However, it turned out that there was no judicial investigation in Turkey regarding links with drugs seized in Panama and Colombia, and that the Ministry of Justice did not request information from these countries.

Against the background of the recent picture, we can say that the cocaine barons have settled in Turkey. Journalist Timur Soykan, author of the book "The War of the Barons", notes that Turkey, which for a long time was a key link on the route of heroin supply from Afghanistan to Europe, known as the "Balkan direction", has also become a new address for cocaine barons. In an interview with Al-Monitor, Soykan said that after the seizure of dozens of tons of cocaine in the ports of Antwerp (Belgium) and Rotterdam (the Netherlands), which turned into bridges for drugs in Europe, the route was redrawn through Turkey. The cocaine trade has easily merged into the ready-made infrastructure that the heroin mafia has been using in Turkey for decades.

The report on drug trafficking for 2020, prepared by the Department for Combating Drug Trafficking Crimes, contains the following definition: "It is noted that large seizures of cargo loaded in America and Europe force smugglers to resort to alternative routes, and that there is an increase in attempts to smuggle cocaine, especially in Europe, through our country”. The security department emphasises that this trend has been observed since 2017. The report of the security administration for 2019 notes that the Turkish route is also used for Asia: "Our country occupies the position of transit/step in the transportation of cocaine from South America to Europe and Asia”.

The volume of seized drugs gives an idea of the size of the Turkish network. While five tons of heroin are seized annually in the countries of the European Union, in Turkey this figure exceeds 20 tons. In other words, heroin seized in this direction accounts for 60% of the volume of seizures in the world. The security directorate notes that "Turkey is of vital importance in the Balkan direction due to record seizures of narcotic substances”.

The Turkish security administration is constantly praised for its outstanding success in the fight against drugs. However, it is also reported that the seized drugs account for about one-tenth of the illegal traffic. In addition to several events related to Latin America, in any case, it is impossible to consider the statements of the leader of the criminal group Sedat Peker, regardless of the dirty machinations in which politics, the mafia, the police and the judicial system are involved.

On social networks, one can see numerous videos depicting AKP members with drugs, which are even forbidden to mention in the news. In conclusion, I would like to note that the interest of the AKP government in Afghanistan and Cyprus should also be considered from this point of view. Ankara, when it wants, considers Northern Cyprus as a place to achieve its goals, and when it does not want, Northern Cyprus becomes an independent state.