How the Russian "Checkmate" can destroy the American aviation industry
The demonstration of the Su-75 “Checkmate” fighter jet, of course, became the main pearl of the last MAKS-2021 international air show. Almost all professional and most general media outlets spoke about it.
The West reacted traditionally when there is nothing to oppose it. They say, "the Russians have created a competitor to the American F-35”, which predetermined the key outline of the discussion. The tactical-technical characteristics of the jets are compared with a special emphasis on two points.
According to the technical parameters, the Russian "Checkmate" looks better, obviously surpassing the American in terms of manoeuvrability and the ability to simultaneously accompany up to 30 targets and fire at at least 6 of them. In addition, its onboard system "sees" significantly further, both in general and if to put the Su-75 directly against the F-35 Lightning II. This automatically devalues the American concept of air combat as the striking of targets with onboard missiles mainly from medium and long distances.
However, supporters of the indisputability of American military superiority are trying to show off the Lockheed Martin advertising booklet, in which it is written that the AN/APG-81 on-board radar with active electronically scanned array is capable of simultaneously waging war against up to 100 targets, from which target designation is issued for 30 and firing - up to 8 of them.
This is in theory, because in practice, it has not been possible to achieve the declared characteristics to this day. The actual indicator is about 2-3-fold less, and even this is provided only in the front hemisphere in the limit of heading angles plus or minus 34 degrees. The developer promises to "fix everything", but so far nothing has changed.
And in general, the list of important shortcomings in the “super lightning" is a thick book, in which the list of shortcomings critical for combat capability takes up more than 200 bullet points alone. As it turned out, even in the supersonic F-35 Lightning II, it is forbidden to fly for more than three minutes due to the threat of the tail part of the fuselage being destroyed. Also, for example, the F-35, unlike the “Checkmate”, is not able to make a combat turn at an angle of attack of 50 degrees and often stalls in the air if the length of the burst from the onboard gun exceeds 11-12 shots in a row.
Another thing is that the American aircraft is already being mass-produced: on March 3, 2020, the 500th jet came out of the Lockheed Martin plant. From these, 354 are F-35A modifications, 108 are F–35B and 38 are F-35C. 353 aircraft of all types were delivered to the American armed forces and 147 to foreign clients. While the Su-75 "Checkmate" displayed at MAKS-2021 is actually only a prototype: its flight test program is planned for 2023, and serial production – for 2026.
However, the Rostec corporation also has something to trump all this with. Despite the powerful advertising hype, the American one does not reach the level of fifth-generation aircraft in actual technical parameters. For example, due to the inability to fly at supersonic in the afterburner mode, while "Checkmate" has such an opportunity available normally.
The detailed comparison could be continued for a long time, but all of this does not make practical sense. The F-35 and Su-75 belong to completely different classes of jets and are designed to solve different tasks.
The F-35 is a heavy multi-purpose fighter jet with a claim to versatility, but mainly designed for long-range over-the-horizon strikes under the control of external command posts, for example, AWACS. Theoretically, it can work on land and water, but only in conditions of a deliberately clear sky and with the mandatory clearing of the strike zone from ground-based air defence systems.
This should work well against weak opponents, like the "Saddam army", but it is difficult to achieve in the case of a full-scale war with an opponent of equal strength and technological development at the level of Russia or China.
In turn, the Su-75 belongs to the class of light front-line fighters, sharpened for solving air defence tasks on the front line, maintaining air supremacy there, providing corridors and escorting heavy attack vehicles (including attack aircraft), as well as providing operational air support to ground units and strikes on surface targets within the operating radius.
So it is correct to compare "Checkmate" not with the “super lightning", but with the latest modifications of the American F-16 Fighting Falcon Block 70 light fighter jet, which, by the way, the Su-75 surpasses in almost all respects.
But this, by and large, is far from the most important thing. The key question at the moment is a completely different one: why does Russia even need this new "Checkmate"?
Over the past decade, the domestic military industry has issued a whole bunch of excellent aircraft, for example, the MiG-35 and Su-35. And the Aerospace Forces’ fleet of mass fighter jets Su-30SM from the end of this year will begin to be massively upgraded to the Su-30SM2 “Super-Sukhoi" version, according to tactical-technical characteristics, which also actually pushes them into the fifth generation, with non-afterburner supersonic, all-aspect long-range onboard electronics, electronic warfare, integration into pilot-unmanned task forces, digital battlefield and all that jazz.
Against their background, the Su-75 gives the impression of a loud advertising campaign. Especially amplified in connection with the clearly pretentious name of the jet. They say, look, good people, a primeval country - a gas station with an economy that’s been torn to shreds, and yet managed to overtake these boastful Yankees.
It is simple, compact, elegant, in smaller dimensions, and at a cost of about $ 25-30 million per completed jet even before optimising production costs. With a clear hint of its subsequent cheapening. That against the background of the already extremely "optimised" 89.2 million dollars for the F-35A, 115.5 million for the F-35B and 107.7 million for the F-35C in the basic configuration, looks like a frank flick on the nose of "Uncle Sam".
Yes, the crushing "right hook" landed, now what? That's where the fun begins. A lot indicates that "Checkmate" is waiting for a repeat of the fate of the Su-30SM fighter jet, which arose from the originally export "Indian" version of the Su-30MKI.
The fact is that on the sidelines of the Ministry of Defence, the basic concept of the fundamental architecture of the Aerospace Forces as a tool for waging war has been discussed for a long time. Conditionally, with some simplifications, two approaches compete.
The first is based on a certain, though not particularly significant, superiority of heavy fighter jets in operational efficiency, which should not be confused with combat.
The days of mass armies capable of having 21,030 combat-ready aircraft in service at the same time, like the Red Army Air Force (on June 22, 1941), are long gone. This is too expensive even for the richest economies. At the end of 2020, the United States had 2,717 combat aircraft of all types, China - 1,571, Russia - 1,531, India - 672, North Korea - 572, South Korea - 476, Pakistan - 447, Saudi Arabia - 360, Egypt - 338, and Taiwan, which closes the top 10, has 288 aircraft.
Therefore, all the headquarters of the world are looking for an opportunity to squeeze the maximum operational capabilities out of the minimum available funds. And here heavy universal fighter jets seem better. They can act further, and the power of the engine makes it possible to simultaneously mount both additional fuel tanks and an extensive arsenal of weapons. Thus, allowing the same aircraft to both break through dense defences for strikes on key objects at a large depth of the enemy's defence, and to solve tasks characteristic of light jets.
Proponents of the second approach rightly object that the weapon is not so much the aircraft itself, as a physical mechanism, as the armed forces as an integral tool for conducting combat operations. And from this position, in addition to the advantages, the concept of "only heavy jets" has its own significant disadvantages.
Heavy fighter jets need capital ships of greater length, which, by the way, still need to be somehow protected against destruction by the enemy. This is not so easy and is always quite expensive. To perform an average typical task, heavy fighter jets spend significantly more fuel and other consumables that cost money and need to be delivered in a timely manner. And it’s not possible to buy so many of them "for the same money", because of the price.
And most importantly, after achieving the primary goal – capturing air supremacy over the theatre of operations, heavy jets begin to yield in operational efficiency to light ones. For this, airfields are also easier to equip, and, if necessary, it is possible to work in general from highways. And the engine time there is cheaper, and the light fighter jets themselves are also less expensive. And if to ensure compatibility with on-board electronics and the range of ammunition used, it turns out to be quite interesting in general.
No, the question of completely replacing heavy fighter jets with light ones is certainly not worth it. In any case, there remains a range of tasks where the heavy ones clearly win. But if we proceed from the optimality of the total costs, and their deficit is a typical standard problem of the army of any country in the world, then the optimal combination that ensures "for the same money" the maximum efficiency of the Aerospace Forces as a whole is the proportion of about 30% of heavy fighter jets, 65% - light, and 5% - highly specialised, such as carriers of the “Kinzhal” or high-altitude high-speed reconnaissance aircraft.
The Su-75 fits perfectly into this concept. One thing is bad, the military has not yet decided on the final choice. It is simple only at the most general glance. In practical terms, its implementation will require major changes in the methods and approaches of staff work, in the tactics of using the Aerospace Forces in general and the "specialisation" of tasks by type of jets.
For example, heavy fighter jets, with external tanks, can patrol in waiting zones for quite a long time before receiving requests for air support from ground units. And what is the best way to ensure the work of the light ones? Should we also use external tanks, to the detriment of the volume of the combat load, or keep them dispersed on the ground, ready for a quick take-off on request? Both have their own organisational and technical requirements, and also entail a long list of other, very ambiguous and difficult tasks.
As noted above, the army is not a separate aircraft, tank, ship or motorised rifle. First of all, the army is a complex mechanism with many critically important and closely related elements.
By the way, the materialisation of the Su-75 "in the flesh" plays a curious role. While the military industry of the Ministry of Defence could not offer any ready-made "light fighter jet", and the fleet of existing MiG-29s gradually exhausted the resource for modernisation and left the scene, the discussion about the further arrangement of the Aerospace Forces was mainly academic in nature.
Now, there is such a plane, which means that it's time to finish theorising and move on to clear specifics, because the shortage of money will never stop, and the need to increase defence capability in the near future will only increase. And it's good that it will take about 1.5-2 years to fine-tune the prototype. There will be enough time to finish the discussion in the General Staff. In the meantime, with the help of "Checkmate", Russia will solve two other tasks, including export and Export.
The first export one. As follows from the speech made by the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, initially English-speaking, and even so obviously provocatively catchy, the name of the jet was assigned not from the ceiling, but for a clearly visible reason. In order for a product to be bought, it must have recognition, clarity and clear attractiveness.
"Checkmate" in this sense is literally getting into the top ten. As well as talk about "the Russian response to the American fifth-generation fighter". Who is it designed for? For the countries of Southeast Asia, Egypt, Iran, South America, and in general everyone who is not able to buy American expensive “super lightning", and, by and large, do not consider it necessary to do so.
The Americans are trying to prove the lack of market prospects for the class of light fighter jets on the grounds that "according to their statistics" (data from Aviation Week), the global sales market for combat aircraft for the period from 2020 to 2029 is expected to be about 3,206 jets, from which 55% will be for the F-35, about 11-12% - for the French Rafale, 10% - for the F-15 and 9.5% - for the F/A-18. In general, 86% of them will be heavy, overwhelmingly American, fighter jets. The segment of light ones (Gripen, Typhoon, KF-X, TF-X and F-16) will pull at most 10-11%, of which the F-16 occupies almost half.
Generally speaking, this is true, but as is usual with Western marketers, it is far from the whole truth.
Aviation Week's calculations are based on the concept of preserving the immutability of American geopolitical dominance, which will automatically provide the United States with a monopoly position in the market, allowing it to impose its F-35 even on those countries for whom the level of light F-5 (396 jets are operated in the world) or Su-24 (392 units) is quite sufficient.
They might have agreed to the F-16, especially in the Block 70 Viper version, but after all, to attack, the price bites. In 2018, the Defence Security Cooperation Agency of the US Department of Defence informed the US Congress about a possible contract with Slovakia for the supply of 14 F-16V Block 70/72 Viper fighter jets for $2.91 billion, or $207 million per set. And even for such money, the United States does not agree to sell them to everyone. Constantly linking negotiations with a large volume of political demands that directly infringe on the national independence of the buyer.
In general, the potential market for light fighter jets in the world is not just there. Over the next decade, it is capable of making at least from 800 to 1700 cars. And here the Russian "Checkmate", with his real fifth generation and other buns, even at $30 million apiece, looks much more attractive than the "Fighting Falcon" for 207 million "plus political haemorrhoids" or the Swedish JAS-39E Gripen, which does not exceed the level of the old MiG-29, for which the database, even with a 60% discount, asks for $77 million.
So United Aircraft Corporation marketers came up with the name for the Su-75 really aptly. The export potential of "Checkmate" is huge. 400-500 jets in total can be expected..
And this is only one, the most obvious, type of export. There is also another one.
The Second Export One. All these beautiful forecasts of sales of American weapons by specialised publications are written with the seemingly unnoticed efforts of the White House to put pressure on its "allies".
As an example. Former US President Donald Trump in 2017, during his visit to the Saudi Kingdom, literally forced the Saudis to sign a commitment to purchase American weapons for $109.7 billion, which Riyadh absolutely does not need at the moment. But politics is such a thing.
So, the promotion of a very successful Russian jet has every chance of being an effective tool of soft power. For example, if Egypt buys "something like this” for itself, and this country firmly occupies a place in the top 5 most promising clients in the international "defence" market, then the UAE will almost certainly have a desire to "get the same", despite all the European influence there.
And so on, and so on. Here it is appropriate to draw an analogy with falling dominoes. Of course, all of this will not be simple and easy. Especially if we recall the Indian tenders. But the overall dynamics of the development of events is already quite predictable. It’s possible to argue about certain tactical details only.
In the meantime, "Checkmate" will "go for export", as in the story of the Su-30MKI, the production base will be formed and modernised, operational experience will be accumulated, inevitable childhood illnesses will emerge and be cured, some new developments in the same electronics will be finished (a lot of extremely interesting things are already being told in open sources, for example, on the topic of promising satellite-free navigation), and hardly anyone will be surprised by the appearance of an updated "Checkmate" with some additional letter after the digital number, which will already go to the combat units of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
In short, the show organised at MAKS-2021 is a groundwork for a very serious prospect. So far, the Americans have been put in check.