The US has brought Ukraine to a crescendo

The material of the RUSSTRAT Institute dated January 8 "Global trends and challenges for Russia in 2022" predicted that the United States would try to carry out a provocation with the "invasion of Russia" in Ukraine and this would be preceded by the maximisation of information hysteria.

At the moment, the Western media have managed to heat up the information background so much that even a large number of domestic politicians and experts talk about the inevitability of a war between Russia and Ukraine. I think it is necessary to clarify this situation and consider options for the development of events.

On February 13, Rear Admiral of the US Navy and Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, in an interview with FOX News, said that the build-up of the potential of the Russian army along the borders with Ukraine and American intelligence data indicate that a “crescendo" situation is developing for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In music, the term "crescendo" denotes an increase in the power of sound, a gradual transition from normal sound to an increasingly loud one, but in colloquial speech this term is sometimes used as an upward movement and reaching the peak stage.

In my opinion, it was the United States, with its panicking statements, that brought the situation in Ukraine to a "crescendo". Information about the accumulation of Russian troops for a further offensive in Ukraine appeared in Politico magazine at the end of October 2021.

Since then, the intensity of hysteria has only continued to increase, on December 3, 2021, the Washington Post published an article entitled "Russia planning massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns”. All attempts of the Ukrainian leadership to refute these statements, at that time, were simply ignored by the Western media.

On CNN, journalist Matthew Chance outlined the details of a January 27 telephone conversation between US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, during which Joe Biden said that the Russian invasion would be "now absolutely certain" and the Ukrainian capital Kiev could be “looted". On February 4, representatives of the Pentagon and the US State Department reported that Russia plans to fabricate video material to justify an invasion of Ukraine.

This same Washington Post and the Reuters agency, citing American officials, reported on February 6 that, in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could happen at any moment, up to 25,000 Ukrainian military, up to 10,000 Russian, and up to 50,000 civilians are likely to die. At the same time, Kiev can be taken by Russian troops in a couple of days and all this will provoke a wave of refugees of about 5 million people.

On February 11, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and then US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan made a statement that a "window" of opportunities had opened for Russia to invade Ukraine and this could happen at any time, even before the end of the Olympic Games in Beijing. Earlier in the United States, the option was discussed that a "Russian invasion" could take place after the Olympics in China.

The synchronicity and uniformity of Blinken and Sullivan's statements should be given special attention. The fact is that the article "Global trends and challenges for Russia in 2022" indicated that the head of the State Department Blinken and Presidential adviser Sullivan adhered to different strategies for promoting US interests in the international arena. Sullivan, as a conditional "dove", promoted a more flexible approach to building alliances, and Blinken, as a "hawk", adhered to the old paradigm of US hegemony.

The article pointed out that the "hawks" are probably winning, since President Joe Biden is clearly losing authority in conducting domestic policy, and this, in turn, entails a loss of authority for his conduct of US foreign policy.

Sullivan did not appear in front of the media for a long time after comments about the Russian-American talks on January 10, which is very uncharacteristic for his position and the tense foreign policy situation. Now, when after a significant break, Sullivan has voiced the theses expressed by Blinken, it can already be noted that in the White House the "hawks" have defeated the "doves".

Politico magazine reported on February 12 that during online talks with representatives of the EU, NATO, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Poland and Romania, the American president said that Russia could attack Ukraine on February 16. The same date of the "invasion" was named by the German magazine Der Spiegel and a FOX News reporter Lucas Tomlinson, based on information from American officials. Bloomberg, citing its sources, reported a possible attack on February 15.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already announced that the total damage, due to hyped hysteria, amounted to $12.5 billion. "Our state cannot cope with such challenges on its own," Zelensky said. The government of Ukraine had to allocate $592 million for guarantees to insurance and leasing companies in order to maintain air traffic over Ukraine, as some of them began to refuse insurance to Ukrainian aircraft.

Of course, the EU and the US are already ready to provide financial assistance to Ukraine, but Ukraine will not be able to live in such a situation for a long time. More than 31 countries have asked their citizens to leave the territory of Ukraine, due to possible hostilities.

Many embassies have already withdrawn their diplomats, and the national flag has even been removed from the British Embassy building. Thus, the activities of many foreign firms and organisations on the territory of Ukraine are practically paralysed and some of the foreigners are unlikely to return there at all.

Naturally, in the conditions of hysteria, not only foreign citizens left the territory of Ukraine. The Ukrainian president said that the entrepreneurs who went abroad "sentenced themselves" and called on the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada who left to return to the country within 24 hours.

In general, it turned out that Zelensky did not justify the hopes of the United States and Britain to play the role of a provocateur for the "Russian bear", he is not even ready to put Ukraine in the position of a real victim of "Russian aggression", with all the associated costs.

Zelensky publicly called for evidence of information that Russia was allegedly planning an invasion on February 16. At a meeting with the faction of the “Servant of the People” party, Zelensky said that three countries friendly to Ukraine are whipping up hysteria with the war and he also tried to explain to the deputies that Ukraine is being played, but it resists.

The West could not ignore such a position of Ukraine for a long time, The Washington Post newspaper published an article entitled "Ukraine’s Zelensky Wants to Fend Off Russia—and America, Too”. Even the media neutral to the White House, not counting those close to the Republican Party, questioned the insistent statements of the Joe Biden administration about Russia's imminent attack on Ukraine.

The New York Times tried to explain this information attack by the White House with a new tactic, with the help of which it will be possible to "beat the master at his own game”, meaning Russian President Vladimir Putin and the information war. According to American officials, the United States is now voicing a huge amount of intelligence, previously this was only during the "Cuban crisis".

As the adviser to the American president Sullivan stated, this is not being done in order to start a war, as it was with Iraq, but in order to try to prevent it. The information that the provocation "under a false flag" would be the reason for the invasion of Russian troops was thrown into the information space so that the Russian side would understand that the world community would not believe this provocation as a legitimate reason for the invasion of Ukraine.

According to the White House, the "disclosure of Putin's plans", if it does not disrupt them, it may postpone the invasion and buy more time for diplomacy. In addition, the Russian president, due to possible political, economic and human costs, will refrain from invading Ukraine.

It is worth noting that the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi, in an interview with ABC News, has already tried to present the current situation as a victory: "...if we were not threatening the sanctions and the rest, it would guarantee that Putin would invade ... So if Russia doesn't invade, it's not that he never intended to. It's just that the sanctions worked".

In the article "Global trends and challenges for Russia in 2022", it was predicted that the provocation with the “Russian invasion of Ukraine" would be mainly informational in nature, since in the case of a real invasion, the chances of the United States "saving" Ukraine would be minimal. All this informational operation was conceived by the United States in order to "save" Ukraine and punish Russia as an "aggressor".

In the current domestic political situation, with an ever-falling approval rating, Joe Biden cannot allow a total defeat of Ukraine in any way, since the flight of the pro-American Ghani government in Afghanistan has not yet been forgotten and the defeat of another American "ally" will finish off Joe Biden's authority as a leader in the international arena. Therefore, full-scale hostilities were not predicted and their prospects are not visible at the moment.

At this stage of the development of events, it becomes obvious that Zelensky and his inner circle are not ready to carry out a provocation to draw Russia into the conflict. However, the outcome of the crisis around Ukraine in the near future should not be expected, the United States has more leverage over the government of Ukraine, since the economy of Ukraine will require direct injections to avoid collapse, in conditions close to combat ones.

In this regard, after a while, we should expect new information outbursts and an aggravation of the situation, the United States will still try to carry out a provocation in order to draw Russia into the conflict in Ukraine, motivating or blackmailing the Zelensky government with financial support. However, Germany and France are playing against this development of events and they have a chance to reduce the situation to a negotiation process.