Welcome to the self-destructing bloc

    How can the fuss on the eastern flank of NATO end?
    access_time18 May 2022
    print 18 5 2022
     

    So, what do we have at the moment? Previously, Sweden and Finland, which were quite neutral to us, did not cause any special military troubles. Now both countries are eager to become full members of the North Atlantic Alliance. Among the more or less understandable reasons for this behaviour is the anti-Russian hysteria raised by the relevant structures of the West.

    But this is just the general background. There are other, quite material reasons behind the background. For example, Polish restlessness in the return of territories "lost" in the dark ages in the east, the views of Bucharest on the lands of Moldova and Transnistria, possible claims of Finland to the same "lost" eastern territories.

    Part of the world in the middle part of Europe after the Yalta (1945) and Potsdam (1945) conferences clearly ceased to suit the people living there. A crazy thought – has the critical moment called overpopulation of the planet really come? Have you stopped having enough living space? Is that why everyone wants to rush, as always, to the east? What's there? There is Belarus, Russia, Ukraine.

    But no European country can pull this off alone. Even the NATO forces in today's configuration are not enough. It is possible, of course, to increase the existing armed forces. But it still seems like it's not enough. We also need to take into account that the buildup costs money, and Europe is quite stingy on military spending, which constantly annoyed the same American President Trump.

    It is possible to transfer to Europe half or even more of the troops available to the United States, including from different parts of the world. Yes, even from Japan. However, then the American Asian flank will be slightly exposed. And there's China. Even if you close your eyes to this and step into the abyss, you still won't have enough strength and resources, since everything is nullified by one ideal argument - Russia's Strategic Nuclear Forces.

    No matter how you turn it, no matter how you twirl it, starting a big war in Europe with Russia's participation is like digging your own grave in advance. It even makes no sense to write wills - there will be no lawyers and heirs left. But there’s the desire to do something to spite Russia. The propaganda machine did not work for nothing. After all, someone invested in it. Therefore, in the West, they did not come up with anything more interesting than once again stepping on an old rake, hitting them on the forehead and starting to "refresh" the block in the North Atlantic area.

    Finland and Sweden are suitable for this. There is a lot of land, near Russia, exits to the seas-oceans are available. In general, a beautiful room with a sea view is for rent. However, it's not enough strength, especially for Finns, but this is a fixable thing. The alliance, as always, promises to help.

    Only now the question arises - why do they all need all this? Let's take the Finns first. What does joining the Alliance give them? Here is the assessment of the first persons of Finland. President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin officially announced on May 12: "Membership in NATO would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance..."

    What a dashing argument. It's like flint! In addition, it was said: "Finland should apply for NATO membership as a matter of priority. We hope that the national steps that are still needed to make this decision will be taken quickly in the coming days." Steps mean discussions in the unicameral parliament (Riksdag) of the country, without involving the population, that is, without a referendum. According to Swedish Foreign Minister Anne Linde, the referendum will not be held in order not to divide, not to traumatise the population and not to allow its misinformation.

    The Finnish government made the decision to apply for NATO membership on May 15. After that, consultations will be held in parliament, after which, on May 18, the application can be submitted to the leadership of the bloc.

    Joining NATO is strongly supported by the ruling Social Democratic Party of Finland. So the Finnish Social Democrats are unlikely to let their government down. In the unicameral parliament (eduskunta), they occupy 40 seats out of 200, with 17.7% of the total number of votes.

    What will this give Sweden? The country, by the way, does not have a land border with Russia, and neither does the sea. In the event of a purely hypothetical NATO victory, nothing will fall from our territory. Only Norway and Finland share a land border with us in that big northern region. Maybe that's why the position of the Swedish leadership on understanding NATO membership is not so well-established yet?

    The media reported that the Swedish government and parliament have developed a "security policy report" related to the rationale for Sweden's accession to NATO. The report was allegedly submitted for discussion in Parliament on May 13, 2022. However, there is evidence that the report was available for study no later than May 9. Let's ignore this slightly annoying misunderstanding.

    Friday the 13th is not a very good date, what could be more bad? This is not good because six of Sweden's eight parliamentary parties seem to agree with joining NATO. Of course, the government is also in favour. The document says that "membership in NATO will increase the level of security for Sweden, although it will cause a negative reaction from Russia." He also does not give recommendations on joining the Alliance.

    The Left Party and the Environmental Protection Party, the Green Party, criticised and rejected the report. The Swedish Parliament has 349 seats under the proportional electoral system. The Social Democratic Workers' Party is in the lead (SDRP, 100 seats, 28.26%). Its chairman Magdalena Andersson is also the Prime Minister of the Government.

    The "left" and "green" share 28 seats (8.0%) and 16 seats (4.41%) respectively, as can be seen, this is no more than 44 votes (12.41%). According to the representatives of these parties, the report was a "pamphlet", without in-depth analysis, not enough time was allocated for making an informed decision, and membership in NATO could lead to Sweden being drawn into the war of the great powers. It also does not consider the provision on foreign troops in Sweden…

    The debate in parliament on the issue of joining NATO will be held on May 16. At the same time, the government will hold a meeting to make an official decision on the application to join the bloc.

    However, not all opinions of party members are monolithic. Away from the capital, on the ground, there are other estimates. For example, party members from the SDRP of the southern province of Skåne advocate the preservation of non-aligned politics. In the province of Västerbotten (north), the members of the SDRP agree to join only if a similar decision is made by Finland. A somewhat strange position, isn't it? Although, we can recall that once Sweden and Finland were one country in terms of borders. The same unity existed between Sweden and Norway (Swedish-Norwegian Union). They are all mute relatives of each other there at home.

    The situation with Finland and Sweden is developing rapidly. An informal meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers was held in Berlin on May 14-15. Many issues were considered, mainly related to the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. Finland and Sweden have confirmed their desire to become members of the alliance. Their aspirations were first supported, of course, by the Anglo–Saxons - Great Britain and the US, Romania, Slovakia, Germany, the Czech Republic.

    British Prime Minister Johnson was in such a hurry that he began signing agreements on mutual security guarantees with interested parties on May 11. The US decided to wait a bit. Signatures will begin after submitting applications.

    On May 15, Swedish Social Democrats posted a text and video on their website with the decision to join the bloc. The party made a reservation – if the application is approved by the Alliance, it is necessary to specify the issues of "the deployment of nuclear weapons and permanent military bases on Swedish territory."

    Whether they mean by this a ban on a complete ban is not very clear. The wording of the thought is vague. But we must understand that the permanent deployment of foreign military bases is now easily replaced by a rotational one. And in the event of a real conflict, none of the senior "colleagues" will ask for permission to deploy nuclear weapons. It will just be installed and that's it. There is another option – they will simply launch air- and/or sea-based missiles from a favourable position.

    There are no bases on the ground, and the use of weapons has happened. Go, then, figure out who is to blame and what to do. The "answer", of course, will arrive. Such an analogy is quite acceptable here – if an octopus (i.e. NATO) gets a leg through a crack (i.e. Finland, Sweden), then it will overcome it entirely. It will not be possible to avoid involvement in a major military conflict.

    It turns out that instead of strengthening security, the new members of the bloc are making their security extremely worse. It's like throwing a noose around your neck, standing with your feet on a barrel of nuclear powder and starting to enjoy life.

    Sweden, if approved by parliament, will submit an application for membership on May 17, 2022. It is possible that this will happen a day later, since a meeting of the presidents of Finland and Sweden is scheduled for May 18. Most likely, there will be a final agreement of the positions of the two countries before submitting applications to the Alliance.

    What will Poland get? Poland has hinted more than once that we want the western part of Ukraine. In the media, as if by chance, several variants of maps with new borders were shown. At least five Ukrainian regions should withdraw from Poland. Polish President Andrzej Duda has already stated that soon there will be no border between Poland and Ukraine. Zelensky remained silent at the same time.

    Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki, in an interview with the the British Telegraph on May 10, called on "all progressive humanity" to put an end to the Russian world and carry out the "dePutinisation" of Russia.

    If you read his speech more closely, you can pay attention to the gaps in the knowledge of history of this politician. He said that on May 9 (2022), a "parade in honour of the end of World War II" was held in Moscow. Dear, this is a memorable date in Russia: May 9 is the Victory Day of the Soviet People in the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945 (1945). Briefly, Victory Day was officially established by the Decree of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR on May 8, 1945 as the day of the complete defeat of Nazi Germany. The day of the end of the Second World War (1945) in Russia is celebrated on September 3.

    But these "little things" are insignificant for those who are used to carrying psychedelic nonsense for an uneducated (in this case) reader. If it has come to this, I would like to say: in order to know your enemy better, it does not hurt someone in Poland to learn history, moreover, from serious textbooks, and not from the tweets of illiterate specialists of the American State Department. There, the other day, they thought hard and gave out no mountain – fascism in Europe was won exclusively by the Americans and the British. Who would doubt it.

    Should this mean Poland's invasion of Ukraine, an attack on Belarus or aggression against Russia? If Poland had acted alone, none of this would have happened. Only now it’s acting like a bully who attacked a "nerd" in a back alley. And behind the bully is a world-class bandit, that is, the United States. It is not for nothing that Poland contains the "legitimate president" of Belarus Tikhanovskaya. Maybe she will come in handy someday?

    Morawiecki's ideas are concretised by former high-ranking Polish military. Polish Deputy Defence Minister (in 1992) Romuald Szeremietiew, in an interview with the newspaper Do Rzeczy, suddenly realised that Finland and Sweden would strengthen NATO's eastern flank. And after that, it will be necessary to resolve the issue of the "demilitarisation" of Kaliningrad.

    The Poles' obsession with claims to the Kaliningrad region is a well–known thing, but slightly unfounded. Once, again, the former commander of the Polish Ground Forces, General Waldemar Skrzypczak, claimed the Kaliningrad region. In his opinion, this is the territory of Poland, which Russia has occupied since 1945. Dmitry Lyskov, the press secretary of the governor of the Kaliningrad region, then answered him - stop fantasising and learn history better, the region has never been Polish. Again, it all comes down to poor education.

    With its anti-Russian hysteria, the Polish leadership clearly demonstrates that it can go further. This also includes the planned increase in the number of armed forces from 147,500 to 300,000 people and an increase in defence spending from 2.2% of GDP in 2022 to three percent from 2023. The basis is the law "On the Defence of the Motherland", signed by Duda in mid–March of this year. There is also the mobilisation and deployment of military groups totalling up to two combined arms armies in the Kaliningrad, Minsk and Lvov directions.

    Taking into account the American "colleagues" on the other side, if we switch to Western terminology, there are about three Polish army corps plus the 5th Army Corps of the US Ground Forces. This, again, is about eight, if not more divisions. A small clarification. The main forces of the 5th Army Crops are located in Poznan, from which it is about 300 kilometres to the border with the Kaliningrad region, and 120-200 km more to the border with Belarus and Ukraine.

    I wonder why Zelensky was silent in response to Duda's attack? To be clear, Poland is a unitary state, Ukraine was the same unitary state until recently. In Poland, there is a single law for a single, as they believe, nation. Naturally, Ukrainians are not Poles, so they will be considered people who temporarily occupied the "eastern poles of Poland" and will be rigidly subordinated to the Polish centralised government.

    So far, for some not very explicable reason, Poles tolerate Ukrainians. Presumably, until the end of Russia comes. Since it will not come, the Poles will tolerate their uninvited neighbours for a long time. Or until the current approach of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" somehow changes. History knows many examples when seemingly indestructible coalitions changed, somewhere numerically, somewhere qualitatively, where by force, where by good will, but, as it seems, most often for real material gain.

    Poland has always strived for unity of opinion in society. For this purpose, the so-called polonisation policy of the local population falling inside the perimeter of the Polish border was even carried out, of which there were many repartitions. Accordingly, there were many migrations of different peoples and nationalities.

    Of course, the Poles took their own, and the "strangers" were deported. Here is another question – what will they do with Ukrainians who will fall under the control of Warsaw? As if Zelensky did not have to open a second front in the west. It is hard to imagine that the Polish authorities will forget about the genocide of Poles committed by the gangs of the OUN-UPA and the SS “Galicia" Division in 1943.

    The tragic date since 2009 has been celebrated on July 11 as the "National Day of Remembrance of the victims of the genocide of citizens of the Polish Republic committed by Ukrainian nationalists”. According to various estimates, at least 50,000 Poles were killed in Volyn at that time. In turn, the Ukrainian side recalls another event that happened a year earlier. Back then the Germans evicted Poles from Western Ukraine, and Germans and Ukrainians were settled in their place.

    The Polish Home Army, which was subordinate to the Polish government in exile (in London), then executed several hundred representatives of the Ukrainian rural intelligentsia for revenge. Then, for the massacre in Volyn, the Home Army killed several thousand Ukrainians. Some report that then the death toll reached 25,000 people.

    As we can see, the genocide was organised by both sides – both Polish and Ukrainian. The difference is only in scale. How, with such an attitude, will Polish and Ukrainian spiders share one, relatively speaking, jar? At the same time, the force will clearly be on the side of Poland. Victory will be easy enough. Of course, if such an operation is authorised by the United States. The European Union alone will not help anyone here. And what will happen next? Further, a direct military clash with Russia is expected with a smooth or abrupt transition to the Third World War.

    From the latest news – in a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Finnish President Niinistö said that Finland will soon apply for membership in NATO. Everything is for a good purpose – strengthening security.

    The procedure for admission of new members (ratification) may take up to one year. Until the end of this process, the new members of the bloc will not be subject to article 5 of the Washington Collective Defence Treaty. Therefore, measures have been taken to provide additional security guarantees to candidate countries for this period. NATO will increase its military presence in the Baltic region.

    However, not all old allies in the Alliance agree with the admission of new members. Turkish President Recep Erdogan has already spoken out against it. He has his own views on what is happening in the block. At a meeting with journalists (May 13), he said that Ankara is against Sweden and Finland joining the bloc because of the support of terrorist organisations in these countries. Erdogan was referring to the Kurdistan Workers' Party banned in Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu confirmed the Turkish position at a meeting in Berlin on May 15.

    Some experts have already noted that Erdogan will make concessions when he achieves something meaningful for Turkey. Perhaps it is so. Turkey has problems with servicing American F-16 fighters that arose after the purchase of Russian S-400 air defence systems. Perhaps Turkey will request new American F-35 aircraft. It is also possible that Turkey will not meet halfway. As they say, so far fifty-fifty. We'll see later.

    Croatian President Zoran Milanović also opposed the adoption. He referred to the imperfection of the electoral legislation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, infringing on the rights of Bosnian Croats. In addition, Milanović was almost the only politician who considered Finland's involvement in NATO a "dangerous adventure", reminiscent of "poking an angry bear in the eye with a pen”. And, nevertheless, he named the price - the United States, Great Britain and Germany should influence the Bosnian authorities to change the election law in six months, ensuring equal rights for Croats.

    What can be said finally. NATO is strengthening not only the eastern, but also the northern flank. Naturally, everything is directed against Russia. And, perhaps, against our ally – Belarus.

    What to do? We will have to deploy additional military cover formations in our northwest. Notice - covers, not invasions. This is about one and a half thousand kilometres of the border in length and several hundred kilometres in depth.

    As analysts have already estimated, it can take up to five years. It would be possible not to strengthen, but as expected, brazen provocations from the bloc will immediately follow there. There will also be all sorts of reconnaissance flights of aviation and visits of navy ships, working out options for striking strategic bomber aircraft, or even worse – the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. In general, there will be plenty of military nastiness in the future. We’ll have to answer.

    The security issue of our northwest can be solved in a different way. Without the deployment of numerous military contingents. Just put on combat duty in the Strategic Missile Forces several launchers for missiles with a separable warhead. And to warn the people on the northern flank of NATO: if you make a careless move, they will be launched. Then don't be offended. You have been warned for a long time.

    The Baltic zone will definitely become nuclear. This was stated, in particular, by the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev. In general, this is understandable. Especially after statements in the West that the Russia-NATO Founding Act does not work. The same Polish President Duda, who was very "educated" in military matters, spoke openly about this during a trip to Bucharest on March 22.

    NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg argued about the same thing. The partners agreed before that Poland could accept US nuclear weapons on its territory. Is it worth reminding that Zelensky, the leader of the Kiev regime, also dreamed of this? Dreams, dreams! where is your sweetness?

    Of course, Finland and Sweden will declare with one voice that their entry into the bloc will not be directed against Russia.

    Here we must take into account that Britain and the United States have already acted as guarantors of their security. These are, for a moment, two countries that possess nuclear weapons with an unstoppable desire to subjugate the whole world. What a curious symbiosis. The fact is that even if the Finns and Swedes had two hands for world peace, when the Anglo-Saxons ordered, then they would build their troops for the "great rush to the east."

    What can they expect in the future? It is necessary to carefully read the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 355 of June 2, 2020 "On the Fundamentals of the State policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence". It says that we can use nuclear weapons not necessarily in second place. It is a pity that it does not say the following: in case of forced use on our own territory, it is necessary to use only fusion nuclear weapons (thermonuclear) in order to avoid radioactive contamination of areas, and in case of action on lands that will never be useful to us, it is necessary to use fission nuclear weapons, that is, conventional uranium/plutonium ammunition. It would be nice to introduce such a provision.

    Interestingly, in the foreseeable previous decades, Russia had no claims to either Finland or Sweden. They don't seem to have anything in mind for Russia either. Now mutual claims will fall like a cornucopia. Don't these countries see that they are creating incredible problems for themselves out of the blue? Have they tried to think?

    A small addition. Our special military operation in Ukraine is being carried out, among other things, to stop the genocide of the Russian-speaking population living massively in the territory controlled by the neo-nazi Kiev regime.

    Patience has run out after the deaths of thousands of innocent people. They were no longer considered people born with inalienable rights to life, education, freedom and independence. A lot of people were simply deprived of these rights by other similar people, but at the instigation of "from above" who adopted the idea of their alleged racial superiority.

    Now justice is being restored. And what rights were people deprived of in the same US, Poland, Sweden, Finland? There were no infringements of their rights on the part of Russia. It turns out that the Kiev regime is an anti-human entity, and it must be eliminated. Helping it is absolutely meaningless. Then what's all the fuss about? It’s unclear. It would seem that, on the contrary, it is necessary to assist the citizens of Ukraine in liberation from neo-nazi tyranny. But so far, for some reason, everything is not as it should be.

    Well, Russia has rolled up its sleeves and is independently cleaning out the Augean stables left to us by Western politicians. The old mess is being replaced by a new order.

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