Ukraine's "nuclear" plan and a chance at the wunderwaffe

The strategic development of Operation Z in Ukraine as part of Russia's overall opposition to the West is forcing the Kiev regime and its Western curators to look for new ideas. According to tradition, as such, a proposal is put forward to supply Kiev with a certain weapon system that in itself can provide a turning point on the battlefields.

After the failed attempts to achieve the desired result through the supply of Javelins, Stingers, Bayraktars, tactical attack drones, howitzers from the United States and France, as well as multiple launch rocket systems, the escalation to nuclear weapons was expected.

The idea to provide, or rather transfer, nuclear weapons to Ukraine was voiced by former Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. According to the ex-official, who was the mouthpiece of those Polish political circles whose opinion cannot yet be presented as the official position of Warsaw, Ukraine has every reason to become the owner of nuclear warheads.

Radoslaw Sikorski said that Russia allegedly violated the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum, so Western countries have the right to "donate" nuclear weapons to Ukraine. He said this on the air of the “Espresso TV” channel.

"I believe that we, as the West, would have the right to give Ukraine nuclear warheads. So that it can protect its independence," Sikorsky explained.

Since Poland is not a member of the club of nuclear weapon-owning countries, the actual implementation of Sikorsky's ideas will obviously have to be taken by the United States, Britain or France. It is hard to imagine that North Korea, India, Pakistan, China or Israel decided to share warheads with Kiev, which officially does not recognise the presence of nuclear weapons, but does not deny it either.

Recall that one of the actual reasons for the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine was the unhealthy desire of Ukraine to get a nuclear trump card by hook or crook. On February 19, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky announced his desire to convene a summit of the countries participating in the Budapest Memorandum for consultations. If the summit does not meet, Ukraine may declare the document invalid, he argued.

The day before the start of the special military operation, on February 22, 2022, draft law No. 7099 was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine under the title "Draft resolution on the statement of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in connection with the armed aggression of the Russian Federation", in which many saw the beginning of legal registration of the nuclearisation of Ukraine.

Since 2014, Ukraine has made repeated attempts to convene consultations in accordance with Article 6 of the Budapest Memorandum, and "in the event of further expansion of armed aggression by the Russian Federation and threats to the territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine, the inadequacy and ineffectiveness of international measures to deter the aggressor, the Rada will consider the full range of possible further measures to ensure state security and submit relevant recommendations to the President of Ukraine."

The list of authors of the document was sufficiently representative to simply dismiss it - the speaker of the Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk and his deputies - Aleksandr Kornienko and Elena Kondratyuk.

As RUSSTRAT previously reported, after the Chernobyl and Zaporozhye nuclear power plants were taken under control, it turned out that there are indeed traces of nuclear weapons development in Ukraine.

“Azovstal” with radiation

Interestingly, Ukrainian officials point out the possibility of using nuclear facilities and facilities not only for strikes against Russia, but also as defensive lines.

In April, the head of the national Ukrainian nuclear agency Energoatom, Pyotr Kotin, said in an interview that the option of strengthening the defence capabilities of the remaining nuclear power plants under Kiev's control at the expense of anti-tank weapons and air defence systems was being considered. The company was ready to carry out priority measures at its own expense.

The fact that this idea not only did not disappear, but was supported by the leadership of Ukraine, Kotin additionally reported on June 8. By this time, the idea of arming nuclear power plants had evolved into the creation of fully-fledged fortified areas on the basis of nuclear power plants.

Fortunately for all mankind and, above all, the European part of Eurasia, Ukraine can technically have no more than three such fortified areas - at the Rovno, Khmelnitsky and South Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Or four, if Chernobyl is also equipped as a fortified area. The Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant is under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and for this reason can not be involved in the defence of Ukraine.

For three and a half months, the Free Economic Zone in Kiev has confirmed the lack of reflection on the loss of industrial potential and humanitarian disasters. For example, in Nikolaev for several weeks there is no fully-fledged water supply, and residents survive on imported water as best they can.

Turned by the nazis into a supply zone, Mariupol, the core of which was the “Azovstal” production complex, showed a good performance against the general background of Ukrainian success, distracting the allied forces from the Donetsk UAF grouping for a month and a half.

It cannot be ruled out that Kiev will want to repeat this experience.

The nuclear power plant will indeed be a convenient defensive line against an enemy that is not interested in creating a vast zone of radioactive contamination. By deploying air defence systems like the S-300 at the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant in the Nikolaev region, Ukraine will be able to influence allied aircraft over Nikolaev and even Kherson, even at the limit of distances. Turning the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant into a launch site for “Tochka-U”, American HIMARS or British M270s will create a specific task for the allied forces.

Having the opportunity to launch unpunished attacks on allied forces and liberated cities, having a "human shield" of an order of magnitude larger due to potential radioactive contamination, the UAF will indeed be able to get a local and inhumane initiative in its essence.

Allied forces will have to react. It will be necessary to demilitarise the nuclear power plant so as not to create risks for the power plant itself, which will require either the work of special forces in the deep rear of the enemy, or extremely high-precision strikes of metered power.

Based on the experience of the last three and a half months, there is no doubt that the UAF will try to place weapons in the most critical points for the operation of nuclear power plants, so that the collateral damage from possible strikes by allied forces is as large as possible.

Given Kiev's penchant for organising large-scale provocations with civilian casualties (Bucha, Kramatorsk), it is absolutely possible that an accident at a "militarised" nuclear power plant with radioactive consequences will occur, even if it is not hit by a single blow.

"Nuclear Ukraine" equals "the beginning of a third world war"

London may be the most likely "sponsor" of Kiev's nuclearisation. London's interest in having nuclear weapons in Kiev was confirmed by British Defence Minister Ben Wallace in an interview with pranksters Aleksey Stolyarov and Vladimir Kuznetsov. He considered the interlocutors to be the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal and therefore spoke quite frankly.

Nevertheless, the probability of Ukraine developing nuclear weapons at the suggestion of the West looks noticeably lower than the chance of implementing the idea of fortified areas based on nuclear power plants.

It is almost impossible to transfer nuclear weapons secretly, and the fact of such a delivery will mean the actual scrapping of the nuclear non-proliferation system that has been preserved to date. If Ukraine, which is in a state of military conflict, gets nuclear weapons, then why, for example, can't Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and any other country in the world create a nuclear warhead "on their own"?

Those countries that do not have their own nuclear programs will also find themselves in the position of legitimate nuclear weapons applicants. For example, its presence can serve as a guarantee of the sovereignty of Venezuela or Syria. Closing the "Pandora's box" in the event of the transfer of nuclear weapons to Ukraine will be incredibly difficult, and it is hardly possible in principle to return the proliferation of nuclear weapons to the previous level.

Obviously, the delivery of nuclear weapons to Kiev will not lead to the fact that these weapons will be stored in a warehouse as a guarantee of anything. The nuclear warhead will certainly be used, the only question will be the place and method of its use.

Since it would be pointless for Russia to launch a symmetrical strike on Kiev, which in this case will be nothing more than a mediator, the domestic doctrine that has come into force regarding the use of nuclear weapons will be directed against the notorious "decision-making centres”. In this case, it would be London or Washington. As a result, the transfer of nuclear weapons to Ukraine will automatically lead to a third world war, which will also be nuclear.

Of course, there is a possibility of destroying the transferred warhead on the way from the Polish border through Ukrainian territory. But even before practical application, a nuclear warhead found in Ukraine will be a sufficient casus belli as to who will provide it.

Not in last place will be the question of what kind of nuclear weapons Ukraine could theoretically receive. Based on the current state of the Ukrainian army, most likely we are talking about ground-based missile launchers that can be equipped with a special warhead.

The M142 HIMARS has not yet been designated as a missile carrier with a special warhead, but the M270 MLRS has this capability. Among other things, they can launch operational-tactical missiles ATACMS, with a warhead in the form of an Mk4 warhead in the form of a W76 thermonuclear warhead with a capacity of 100 kT.

Important detail: According to well-known sources, the Trident naval system has become the only weapon system available in the British nuclear forces since the end of the 90s. This means that Warsaw and Ukraine see the United States as the most likely supplier of nuclear weapons for Kiev.

Western elites have recently demonstrated exceptional abilities in making the most destructive decisions. But in this case, it is not so much an assessment of the constructiveness of an act as an instinct for self-preservation.

The transfer of nuclear weapons to Kiev, including tactical ones, involves a large number of logistical and legal difficulties and is guaranteed to lead to the maximum possible deterioration in global security.

The situation will be much more dramatic than the Caribbean crisis, where there was still some distance between Cuba and the United States – and, accordingly, Turkey and the strategic objects of the USSR. If nuclear weapons appear on the territory of Ukraine, Russia will be forced to react as quickly and harshly as possible, and the Ukrainian side will be only a secondary target.

At the moment, the probability of transferring nuclear weapons to Kiev looks minimal. The same cannot be said about attempts to turn nuclear power plants on the territory of Ukraine into fortresses. Within the framework of the logic that guides the Kiev neo-Banderist regime, such a decision can be considered very expected.