Russia has sent the US a final warning

US Ambassador John Sullivan was invited to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 17, 2022. He was given the reaction to the previously received American response to the Russian draft Agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees. This document was also published on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

I will cite a few quotes that most fully reflect the essence of the Russian reaction: "We state that the American side did not give a constructive response to the basic elements of the draft agreement with the United States on security guarantees prepared by the Russian side.

We are talking about the rejection of further expansion of NATO, the withdrawal of the ‘Bucharest formula’ concerning ‘Ukraine and Georgia will become NATO members’, and the refusal to create military bases on the territory of states that were previously part of the USSR and are not members of the Alliance, including the use of their infrastructure for conducting any military activity, as well as about the return of military capabilities, including strike ones, and NATO infrastructure to the state of 1997, when the Founding Act of Russia-NATO was signed. These provisions are of fundamental importance for the Russian Federation."

“We insist on the withdrawal of all US armed forces and weapons stationed in CEE [Central-Eastern Europe], SEE [South-Eastern Europe] and the Baltic states. We are convinced that the national potentials in these zones are quite sufficient.”

"In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees of ensuring our security by the United States and its allies Russia will be forced to react, including through the implementation of military-technical measures."

How can this Russian document be evaluated?

Russia has sent the United States a final warning. This is exactly how this document should be evaluated. This is the last chance to solve the problem through negotiations, without winding up the coils of tension.

The correct reaction of Washington will allow us to resolve the issues of security guarantees for Russia through diplomatic means. A lack of "readiness of the American side to negotiate" will lead to the fact that Russia will be forced to create comparable risks to the national security of the United States and its allies in order to provide strategic deterrence.

Now everyone is wondering what military-technical and other measures is Moscow going to take to force Washington to change its mind?

Obviously, the answer is known only to the military-political leadership of our country, a very limited circle of people. It can be assumed that in general, only Russian President Vladimir Putin, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolay Patrushev, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov know it. The final decision on certain measures will be taken only by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, Russian President Vladimir Putin. Therefore, the risk of information leakage is almost zero.

At the same time, it should also be understood that plan "B" in case the United States and NATO refuse to provide security guarantees to Russia, was prepared in advance, even before the draft Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees and the Agreement on Security Measures for the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation were sent to the United States and the NATO leadership on December 15, 2021.

Given the caution of Russia's military-political leadership and its unwillingness to escalate the situation unless absolutely necessary, Moscow would not have gone to such a tough confrontation with the West to obtain security guarantees without a clear understanding of how to achieve the goals set or how to get out of this situation later. After all, the very existence of Russia as a sovereign state is at stake.

One important point should also be taken into account: the extreme rigidity of Russia's position is determined by the current situation, since the country has not faced such a serious challenge to its national security since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Again, the phrase "Russia is great, but there is nowhere to retreat. Behind Moscow!".

By the way, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself spoke about the existence of the plan and its variability depending on changes in the situation during a press conference following talks with German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The head of the Russian state answered the question of how Russia will act further:

"We will act accordingly to the plan. And what will it consist of? Of the real situation on the ground. Who can answer how it will develop? So far, no one knows, it depends not only on us. But we will strive to negotiate on the issues that we have raised through diplomatic means."

It means that plan A is still working: this is a diplomatic effort and an ideal solution to the problem for both Russia and the United States. However, Washington has not yet realised this. An option without unnecessary confrontation, saving time and resources of both countries.

Now the ball is on the American side of the field. The Russian reaction to the previously received American response on the Russian draft Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees was transmitted on February 17, 2022. Moscow is waiting for the "readiness of the American side to negotiate."

The hope that reason will prevail in the American establishment over its worldview of American exceptionalism is very weak - in fact it's zero. The United States and its satellites will resist - resist aggressively.

Most likely, there will be an attempt to draw Russia into the internal Ukrainian conflict through the organising a provocation on the contact line in Donbass. A full-scale offensive of the Kiev regime on Donbass is also possible. There are enough forces gathered for this.

Then Russia will switch to plan "B". How this plan worries Western elites. What are the Russians really up to? What will they do? Sometimes this does not give them any peace or sleep. On the one hand, they don't want to give up the position of world hegemony, and on the other hand, they have a kind of scary. And they want so much to return to that well-fed and quiet life that they have had during 30 years after the collapse of the USSR.

It should also be understood that all the recent visits of Western officials to Moscow and their negotiations with Russian officials were primarily of an intelligence nature. Westerners were probing how far Russia was ready to go in protecting its national interests, and what it would do specifically.

French President Emmanuel Macron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin on February 7-8, 2022. British Defence Minister Ben Wallace visited Moscow on February 11, 2022 and held talks with Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu. German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 15, 2022.

British Foreign Minister Liz Truss, who was in Moscow on February 10, 2022 and met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, is not taken into account due to her certain limitations, ignorance of history and political geography. But everyone else wanted and tried to find out the details of plan "B".

However, it's not on the cards for them. Russia will keep everyone in a state of uncertainty, in a state of tension until the very last moment, until the moment of passing into action.

The Americans have released a list of all possible sanctions against Russia, the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee even coined the term “the mother of all sanctions". They decided to use scare tactics on us, but it didn't work. On the contrary, our country, knowing this list, just needs to prepare for it, prepare in advance.

Let's summarise. Russia has sent the United States a final warning, a reaction to the previously received American response on the Russian draft Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees. Moscow does not demand much, only "the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security from the United States and its allies."

Otherwise, Russia will switch to plan "B". As the famous hero of the film "Diamond Hand" put it: "I will hit carefully, but hard”.