Russia will form a new world order primarily by military force

In his interview with RBK on March 16, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov answered the question of why the situation with Ukraine could not be solved peacefully, why it did not work out and why a special military operation was needed. I will quote part of the statement of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry:

"Because the West did not want to solve this situation peacefully. This is not about Ukraine at all. Rather, it is not so much about Ukraine as about global law and order. The United States has taken over the whole of Europe. Under Biden, the United States set itself the task of subjugating Europe and achieved its unquestioning adherence to the American course. I think the current crisis is a fateful moment. This is an epochal moment in modern history. It reflects the battle over what the world order will look like."

Thus, Sergey Lavrov says that the situation in Ukraine is just one of the episodes, albeit very important, of the global process of changing the world order. Let's try to imagine what other tasks Russia will have to solve in the next 3-5 years in order to neutralise the most serious challenge to national security in connection with the approach of the US and NATO military infrastructure to the Russian borders.

At this moment, the West is forming another crisis point. We are talking about Moldova and Transnistria. On March 3, 2022, the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, announced the application for membership in the European Union: "We need to act urgently when circumstances require it. Our decision to send an application does not mean automatic joining. The state and the private sector need to make a lot of efforts to get closer to EU standards so that our application is approved."

According to the constitution, Moldova is a neutral country, and the EU does not call itself a military-political bloc. However, it is such in fact. For example, the EU's military command bodies almost repeat the structure of NATO's military command bodies. In fact, Moldova's accession to the EU will also mean informal membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. The country will be firmly anchored in the zone of influence of the West, and eventually will become a formal member of NATO.

Against this background, the concerns of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic are understandable. On March 4, 2022, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the TMR issued a special statement that the decision of the Moldovan authorities means readiness to transfer Moldova's sovereignty to supranational bodies in the European Union and the transition to the final military-political and economic development of the territory of the Republic of Moldova by the West.

Transnistria called on Moldova to engage in dialogue in order to finally settle relations on the basis of signing an interstate agreement on the peaceful good-neighbourly existence of two independent states.

The statement of the TMR's Foreign Ministry also says: "We consider it necessary to emphasise that the Transnistrian people determined their fate in a civilised and democratic way on September 2, 1990, stopped the military aggression of Moldova in 1991-1992, defended their freedom and independence, and confirmed the inviolability of the course towards international recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (TMR) in a national referendum on September 17, 2006".

In addition, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the TMR sent relevant appeals to the UN, OSCE and other addressees with a request to recognise the reality that has existed for more than 30 years in the form of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, ensure respect for the right of the Transnistrian people to self-determination and establish diplomatic relations with Transnistria.

How to resolve this situation in the simplest way and through diplomacy? The Republic of Moldova and the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic conclude a corresponding agreement, as indicated above in the text. Further, the Russian Federation is the first to recognise the independence of the TMR and establish diplomatic relations with it.

But no, the West decided to have a game of escalation in this situation as well. On March 15, 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on the exclusion of Russia from the Council of Europe, which also recognised "an act of armed aggression [of Russia] against the Republic of Moldova and, accordingly, the occupation of the Transnistrian region”. By the way, Moldova was not a co-sponsor of the amendment to this resolution, but there were no objections from Chisinau. Silence in this case is regarded as support for this approach.

It should be noted that there are three official languages in the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic: Russian, Moldavian and Ukrainian. The Russian flag has been used as the second state flag since 2017. More than 200,000 citizens of Russia live on the territory of the TMR. Since 1992, the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation, formed from the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria, has been deployed on the territory of the republic.

It is obvious that as the Russian special operation in Ukraine progresses, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will reach the borders of Transnistria through the Odessa region, which will protect the unrecognised republic from possible armed aggression from Chisinau and make its transport and economic blockade impossible.

In addition, it will dramatically increase the contractual capacity of the Republic of Moldova. Further actions will largely depend on the plans of the military-political leadership of Russia to regain control over the former territory of the USSR, namely, whether Moldova's accession to the European Union corresponds to these plans.

The next point of tension for Russia, the United States and its NATO allies has formed in Finland, which is actively being pulled into the North Atlantic Alliance. In this country, the number of polls has recently increased dramatically, according to which the majority of respondents allegedly support Finland's accession to NATO.

In this case, the military infrastructure of the bloc will come close to the borders of Russia in the northwest. St. Petersburg will be under threat. The distance in a straight line from the northern capital of Russia to Helsinki is 297 kilometres.

Such a move by Finland would be unacceptable for Russia: after all, it was part of the Russian Empire. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated: "We will never agree to only one thing: that someone would allow themselves to use Russia's generous gifts to damage the Russian Federation itself."

Another point of tension for Russia is the Baltic states. The deployment in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of NATO military contingents, strike missile systems, including nuclear equipment, will create a high level of threat to our country.

In addition, there is a problem of the Kaliningrad region. This region is cut off from Russia and sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. The first step towards isolating Kaliningrad has already been taken: EU countries have closed the skies to Russian civil aviation. But our planes fly around the Baltic Sea.

Overland transit to Kaliningrad goes through the territory of Lithuania. It is regulated not by Lithuania, but by a separate agreement between Russia and the European Union. Therefore, Lithuania alone cannot stop it. However, recently the European Union has adopted a large number of tough sanctions against Russia, including freezing gold and foreign exchange reserves. There are no guarantees that the EU, under pressure from the United States, will abstain from stopping overland transit to Kaliningrad.

It should be understood that since February 24, 2022, the essence of the international situation is that no agreements with the West, either oral or written, are working. Only physical control of the territory and transit routes with the help of military force works. Therefore, initially it becomes pointless to negotiate. It can be done only by military means. And negotiations (diplomacy) will happen after the establishment of physical control.

If the EU and NATO will opt for a serious escalation in the situation with the Baltic states, then Russia's special operation in this region will be another forced measure. However, it will be possible only if Russia blocks the actions of the United States, for example, by bringing nuclear underwater “Poseidon” drones with megaton thermonuclear warheads and surface ships equipped with hypersonic cruise missiles "Tsirkon" to the continental part of the United States for direct guidance.

The Ukrainian situation has given Moscow a huge amount of materials on the issue of the United States and its NATO allies conducting biological warfare against Russia. In the coming years, Moscow will "knock out" the military biological laboratories of the United States and its allies from the territories of the former USSR countries. China will provide comprehensive support on this issue.

The degree of the country's friendliness to Russia will be determined by the voluntary closure of such laboratories on its territory. In case of refusal, strikes with precision weapons with prior notification and provision of the necessary time for the evacuation of laboratory personnel are not excluded. The scheme with the threat of using high-precision weapons can be tested in Moldova after establishing control over the Odessa region, and then in Georgia.

Thus, the situation in Ukraine is the most important from the point of view of Russia's formation of a safe space at its borders, but this is only the first stage of this process. The harsh truth of life is that 5-10 years of military feat and hard work await our country.