Chances of a large naval operation in the direction of Nikolaev and Odessa

On June 10, remarkable events took place in the Black Sea – two Ukrainian ships were damaged in the Ochakov area of the Nikolaev region, which is still controlled by the Kiev regime. The medium landing ship "Yuriy Olefirenko" was able to escape under intense artillery fire on its own, the small anti-submarine ship "Vinnytsa" – a corvette according to the Ukrainian classification - was less lucky. For an unknown reason, it sank right at the pier where it was moored.

Official information from the Russian side was very stingy, and in fact was reduced to state media reports that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation took control of the Kinburn Spit. At the same time, the operational base of the navy, which was being built under the control of the Americans, was destroyed, and the already mentioned events happened to the Ukrainian ships. It was emphasised that "Vinnytsa" and "Yuriy Olefirenko" were involved in the defence of Ochakov.

Loud news in Ukraine was not ignored, but the incident was covered with its own specifics. "Yuriy Olefirenko" was presented as a heroic ship that broke through heavy artillery shelling. As for “Vinnytsa”, according to the Ukrainian side, this ship was written off, sank on its own, and therefore nothing special happened.

Ships are not the main thing here

Oddly enough, but with the description of "Vinnytsa" as a zero combat unit, we can agree. Designed by order of the KGB, the patrol ship of the 112 AP project (code "Albatros") was built in Zelenodolsk in 1975. Until 1991, "Dnepr" was assigned to Sevastopol as a border ship, then moved to Ukrainian jurisdiction, where they frankly did not know what to do with it. The flags of Ukraine and the Ukrainian navy were raised only in 1996 on it, "Dnepr" was renamed to "Vinnytsa".

In Sevastopol, it is well remembered that the ship is mainly known as one of the most affected, along with another Ukrainian control ship "Donbass", in a strong storm in November 2007. The storm in the waters of Sevastopol was so strong that "Vinnytsa" almost sank along with the entire crew, having received serious damage to the hull. With varying success, the ship was in repairing until 2014, when Sevastopol and Crimea returned to Russia.

In April 2014, "Vinnytsia" was returned to Ukraine and taken away to Odessa because of its uselessness. It was impossible to use the ship after almost a decade of repairs – GAS (hydroacoustic station) and other search engines failed, as well as radars, the condition of the hull was critical.

Since 2017, "Vinnytsia" has been a training ship, in 2018 it was repaired in the dock – and immediately sent for disposal. The corvette was decommissioned in January 2021, and sank in Ochakov exactly where it had been standing since 2019, waiting for its turn in cutting for metal.

Let's be frank – to seriously consider the destruction of such a ship a feat means to belittle the honour of the Black Sea Fleet, which even in the course of the current Special Military Operation has much more weighty reasons for pride.

There is a similar story with "Yuriy Olefirenko” in terms of combat potential. The ship of the Polish project was built in Gdansk and commissioned in 1971. As befits a landing ship, it is not too adapted for direct combat. The ship is equipped with two WM-18 rocket launchers (analogous to the Soviet BM-14) – they began to be replaced by the BM-21 “Grad” back in the 1960s, as well as a 30-mm AK-230 artillery launcher. The crew forces can use the Strela MANPADS and other hand weapons.

It's supposed that "Yuriy Olefirenko" can transport four tanks, three heavy artillery systems or up to two platoons of naval infantry. The maximum range of destruction of the MLRS on board is up to 10 kilometres, 30-mm artillery – up to about 4.5 kilometres.

All of the above also does not look like a deterrent to any noticeable attack. Since the ship has no air defence, with the exception of MANPADS, its defeat by anti-ship missiles or any other suitable weapon with a range of more than 10 kilometres would be inevitable, and the contribution to the defence of Ochakov is purely moral. Therefore, it is not surprising that the ship found it optimal to escape.

It is also worth evaluating with the same caution reports that the meaning of the activity in the Ochakov area was the destruction of a special operations centre that was used in the interests of Ukrainian intelligence and NATO countries.

A number of media outlets reported that now the intelligence capabilities of Ukraine and NATO will be significantly reduced. It is difficult to say how much, because Kiev already received the bulk of intelligence from NATO, which used all the possibilities for this, up to the orbital groupings of state and private satellites.

It is precisely because of the presence of the specified centre in Ochakov that missile strikes were carried out on it in the very first days of Operation Z - it’s possible to find many reports of hits on the intelligence centre with "Kalibr" back on February 28. On April 4, the Russian Defence Ministry reported the destruction of a training centre for Ukrainian special operations forces in Ochakov, which was used, among other things, to deploy foreign mercenaries, with high-precision long-range sea-based weapons.

After three months of strikes, the effectiveness of the intelligence centre in Ochakov should have significantly decreased, which also removes the task of its destruction from the list of reasons for increased attention to the city.

A bridgehead with an eye on a bigger goal

The Kinburn Peninsula, which is administratively related to the Nikolaev region of Ukraine and stretched in a north-westerly direction from the already controlled Kherson region is often called the Kinburn Spit, and it was taken under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

The Kinburn Spit has remarkable geography – it is located approximately at the same distance (60-70 kilometres) from Odessa and Nikolaev, which it bypasses quite deeply from the southwest, and also additionally "locks" the delta of the Southern Bug.

The most striking moment in the history of the Kinburn Peninsula was the Russian-Turkish wars, including the famous defeat of the Turkish landing by Aleksandr Suvorov in 1787. In the 21st century, the importance of the Kinburn Spit as a means of blocking the delta of the Southern Bug has decreased: due to the development of the range of artillery and other means, it is possible to block the delta by controlling other areas of the Kherson region. However, as a springboard for the capture of Ochakov, the Kinburn Peninsula fits perfectly – no more than five kilometres separates these points on the map.

The Kinburn spit taken under control has two most likely consequences. Firstly, activity following the example of Snake Island on two similar land plots – the islands of Berezan and Pervomaisky, located on the left and right in the direction of traffic from the Southern Bug Delta, is not excluded.

Secondly, Ochakov becomes a self-evident target if the General Staff has a plan to wedge between Odessa and Nikolaev, thus cutting in two the second after the “Donetsk” enemy grouping and getting the opportunity to either try to encircle Nikolaev or move towards Odessa simultaneously with the attack on Nikolaev "Kherson" group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

There is another circumstance implying the capture of Ochakov – as well as the entire coast from Ochakov to the Kherson region.

On June 15, the authorities of Kherson announced that the local seaport had resumed work, a new head had been appointed, and the port itself was preparing for the start of cargo transshipment.

At the moment, Sevastopol and Kerch are the transshipment points for products from Kherson.

Cargo transshipment directly at the port of Kherson can take place only if the vessels are guaranteed safe passage from Kherson to the Kinburn Spit – during which they need to pass by Ochakov at a distance of one and a half to two kilometres. Without control over Ochakov, effective fire from any ATGM and even small arms can be opened on ships from the Ukrainian coast, which will make the work of the Kherson port impossible in practice.

It is possible that it is due to the high probability of a deployment of troops to Ochakov that information about the transfer of Harpoon anti-ship systems and its analogues to Ukraine is connected. Fire support can also be carried out from the Kinburn Spit, but landing ships and other means will be required to overcome the water barrier.

Tank Landing Ships in the Black Sea are now more than enough, since February 2022, at least 12 ships of this type have been operating in the water area. However, it would be rash to expect their use "head-on". Thanks to NATO intelligence, Kiev is unlikely to be able to miss the advance of 12 ships with landing troops in the direction of Ochakov, and will try to disrupt this raid, for example, by the mentioned Harpoon or Norwegian NSM, which were delivered to Kiev earlier.

Ochakov looks very promising in terms of strategic effectiveness. However, it is necessary to solve the problem of transferring a sufficient group of troops to take control and hold this city. At the same time, it is necessary either to avoid the use of LST, ensuring the transfer by other means, or to achieve the safe passage of ships with troops into the delta of the Southern Bug in dangerous proximity to Odessa, within the range of a number of firing means.

If the Russian military command really has a landing on Ochakov in its plans, then this should be a very good operation. This, if successful, is guaranteed to enrich the domestic military science.