The establishment of peace in Ukraine depends only on the Ukrainian side

It is likely that some of the Russian public may reject this text, but everything that will be described below fits into a coherent logical chain. Following this logic, we can conclude that some agreements on establishing peace on the territory of Ukraine can be reached very soon.

The RUSSTRAT article "Russia is conducting a special unification operation" drew the reader's attention to the fact that Russia initially did not set out to destroy or capture Ukraine, since, announcing the start of the special operation, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated directly that the occupation of Ukraine was not expected.

Already on the first day of the special military operation on February 24, Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov explained that Moscow is ready to negotiate with Kiev: "The President (of Russia) formulated his vision of what we would expect from Ukraine in order for the conceptual ‘red-line’ problems to be solved”.

The first negotiations between representatives of Russia and Ukraine took place on February 28. On March 1, the Kremlin confirmed that it continues to consider Vladimir Zelensky the legitimate president of Ukraine.

To understand the situation, I would like to draw your attention to the following chronological picture: on February 26, Russian troops entered the city of Melitopol, on March 2, they completely took control of the city of Kherson, and the Ukrainian city and regional administration continued its work. The mayor of Melitopol was arrested for subversive activities on March 11, and the Ukrainian flags began to be removed altogether only on the 14th.

Thus, it can be understood that initially Russia did not intend to occupy the territory of Ukraine, everything had to be decided during negotiations. The logic here, in my opinion, is quite obvious. Russia was not going to be involved in the administration of everyday life, and even more so to bear additional budget expenses to Ukraine.

However, due to the unconstructive position of the Ukrainian authorities in the negotiations, as was predicted in the article "Russia is conducting a special unification operation", the tactics of the Russian military have changed, and they will systematically occupy the entire territory of Ukraine.

After 4 days, this scenario was confirmed by Peskov: "The Ministry of Defence, while ensuring maximum security for the civilian population, does not exclude the possibility of putting large settlements under full control, which today are practically surrounded, with the exception of zones used for humanitarian evacuation”.

At the same time, negotiations are continuing, and the Ukrainian newspaper Zerkalo Nedeli, which was noticed in connection with the US Embassy, published on March 11 six points of Russia's demands to Ukraine, which were announced during the first bilateral negotiations.

1. Ukraine's refusal to join NATO. Neutral status of Ukraine, one of the guarantors of which will be Russia.

2. The Russian language gets the status of the second state language in Ukraine; the authorities cancel all laws that infringe on it.

3. Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian.

4. Ukraine recognises the independence of the DPR and LPR within the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions (including the territories currently controlled by Ukraine).

5. Denazification of Ukraine, that is, "banning the activities of ultranationalist, Nazi and neo-Nazi parties and public organisations, repealing existing laws on the glorification of Nazis and neo-Nazis”.

6. Demilitarisation, that is, the complete abandonment of offensive weapons by Ukraine.

It is difficult to say exactly what the Ukrainian authorities are counting on, delaying the negotiation process. Although among the various rumours and options, it’s possible to choose the most likely ones.

At the first stage of the special military operation, they expected to inflict a serious defeat on the Russian army for a favourable position in the negotiations. After some time, they were already counting on the involvement of NATO forces in the conflict, then - on the imminent default of Russia, after which the special operation would stop. The latest rumours from Zelensky's "presidential office" suggest that they are counting on a second wave of mobilisation and weapons received from abroad.

However, at the moment Zelensky has already recognised that Ukraine's entry into NATO is impossible and it is necessary to discuss its neutral status. Accordingly, the 1st point of the six demands of Russia can be considered agreed.

The head of the Russian delegation at the talks, Vladimir Medinsky, said that Kiev offered options for a neutral status of Ukraine, but with its own army and navy. As time goes on, this proposal of Ukraine looks less and less principled, since demilitarisation is now in full swing and it is no longer clear whether there is at least something left of the Ukrainian fleet.

A report from the Financial Times made a lot of noise, where it was said that Ukraine and Russia had made significant progress on a preliminary 15-point peace plan, including a cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian troops, if Ukraine declares neutrality and agrees to restrictions on its armed forces, and also promises not to deploy on its territory foreign military bases and weapons. Two people involved in the negotiations told the FT that the agreements also include provisions to secure Russian language rights in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian side commented on this FT report as an interpretation of the Russian side's proposals. Peskov said that the publication has the right elements, but "everything is collected incorrectly, and, in fact, it is not correct”.

It is clear that in the current situation, when Zelensky calls for the entire "civilised world" to fight against Russia, he cannot talk about serious compromises with Moscow. "My priorities in the negotiations are absolutely clear: the end of the war, security guarantees, sovereignty, the restoration of territorial integrity. Real guarantees for our country, real protection for our country,” said Zelensky.

Adviser to the Ukrainian president Aleksey Arestovich, in order to raise morale, generally declares that "everything we agree on must be better than before the war. After all, for what were there victims among the Ukrainian people?" Only, of course, public statements are one thing, and the real essence of negotiations is quite another. Based on leaked information, former Defence Minister Anatoly Gritsenko (in the interests of Petro Poroshenko) has already managed to accuse the Ukrainian members of the negotiating group of betraying the interests of Ukraine.

In turn, the Russian leadership has no illusions about the real ability of the Ukrainian side to negotiate. Vladimir Putin said the talks had begun to avoid civilian casualties. In his opinion, Russia has done everything possible to organise these negotiations in order to resolve fundamental issues for Russia on the neutral status of Ukraine, its demilitarisation and denazification.

However, as was noted by Vladimir Putin: "We are convinced again and again that the Kiev regime, to which its Western masters have set the task of creating an aggressive anti-Russia, is indifferent to the fate of the people of Ukraine themselves.” He added that the Kiev regime is not interested in the lives of civilians and the fact that millions of Ukrainians are becoming refugees. According to the Russian president, it is obvious that "Western patrons are simply pushing the Kiev authorities to continue the bloodshed, supplying more and more weapons, providing intelligence, and providing other assistance, including sending military advisers and mercenaries."

Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned that if the Ukrainian authorities continue in this spirit, Ukraine will cease to exist as a state entity. I think Kiev has already taken the hint when the new authorities of the Kherson region, removing the Ukrainian flags, called for the establishment of good-neighbourly relations with Russia. It is worth recalling that Ukraine has introduced criminal liability "for cooperation with the Russian Federation", which means that in Kherson they are no longer afraid of the return of the Ukrainian authorities.

In addition, Russian social networks are filled with videos of new echelons of military equipment moving in the western direction, and new volunteers are coming from Chechnya. Accordingly, Russia is not going to stop halfway.

Nevertheless, the completion of the special operation by agreeing on "peace agreements" is more likely. The fact is that the Ukrainian side is already under serious pressure to make concessions to Russia. The American website Axios, known for insiders from the White House, citing a senior Ukrainian official, reported that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett advised Zelensky to agree to a cessation of hostilities. However, this information was denied by both Israeli and Ukrainian officials.

Requests to accept Russia's proposals in exchange for further financial support were made by the leaders of Germany and France, according to leaks from the office of the Ukrainian president. There is every reason to believe that there really were such appeals to Zelensky.

The fact is that if in April the sowing season does not start in Ukraine, then the usual harvest rates in the autumn will not be seen. Military operations are taking place in 10 regions of Ukraine, which account for 54% of sunflower, 42% of corn and 52% of wheat.

"This sowing campaign, on the eve of which we are standing, is probably the most difficult and important in our life. Its value is no longer measured by the "harvest" and “price" categories. We are talking about the future of the state," said the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Roman Leshchenko.

The absence of a fully-fledged sowing campaign in Ukraine will immediately affect food prices, which are already breaking records. Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya are among the main importers of Ukrainian wheat, and prices have already reached levels when the "Arab Spring" began in 2011, which ignited the Middle East. This situation will also affect African countries, where food products make up 40% of the consumer basket, writes The Economist. UN speaks candidly about the risk of world famine due to the conflict in Ukraine.

That is why Israel and European countries are afraid of the destabilisation of the situation and new flows of refugees, which in the current economic conditions European countries will no longer be able to accept. This is not to mention the fact that in Europe itself, some retailers are already rationing the sale of sunflower oil, which mainly comes from Ukraine, and some other food products. In Britain, it is already proposed to re-sow fields that are not used for their intended purpose.

The most important reason why peace agreements are inevitable is, of course, the situation on the fronts. No matter how much Ukraine wins the information war in the world media, the prospects on the battlefields are not bright for it. Republican Congressman Darrell Issa characteristically commented on Zelensky's desire to continue fighting: "Fortunately, Zelensky does not attend our secret briefings (in the US Congress), where it was repeatedly voiced that he has no chance."

Zelensky replacing the commander of the "operation of united forces" in Donbass says that things are clearly unsatisfactory there, everything is going to form a huge cauldron. The Donbass group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, clinging to the old lines of defence, is losing its flanks. It cannot leave without critical losses, as it will be smashed on the march of the Russian Aerospace Forces, it will not be rescued for the same reason, and also because UAF reserves are drawn to Kiev.

In Mariupol, nationalist forces remained only in the city centre and will soon be cleansed. Kharkov is in an operational encirclement, and the UAF units there suffer from a lack of fuel and ammunition. After the fall of Mariupol, the loss of the "second capital" of Ukraine will be a knockout blow for the authorities in Kiev, and "victory" in the information war will not save the situation.

In Ukraine itself, in general, there are already difficulties with fuel and lubricants and food delivery due to problems with the state reserve, and the financial system practically does not function. Logistics chains are disrupted, and the entire economy needs to be restarted.

In this regard, the Ukrainian authorities are very much in need of peace agreements or, at least, a ceasefire. Adviser to the head of the office of the Ukrainian president Aleksey Arestovich in an interview with Dmitry Gordon said that the conflict may continue after a short break. Only he tried to attribute the initiative in the break to the Russian side. Although, in fact, Russia does not need it, since the logistics support does not experience any special difficulties.

Thus, in my opinion, given the intentions of the Russian president to minimise losses among the civilian population of Ukraine, the conclusion of peace agreements is inevitable.

However, the conditions under which they will be sealed depend on the "stubbornness" of the Ukrainian leadership – the longer it resists, the worse the terms of the agreements will be for it. Of course, we should not forget that the Ukrainian authorities may break their promises and the Russian army should be ready to force them to fulfil these agreements in full.