The withdrawal of Americans from Syria will have devastating consequences for Turkey
To begin with, it is necessary to indicate what is happening in Afghanistan. For the United States, the events that took place in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021, are no different from the fall of Saigon in Vietnam on April 30, 1975 and the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979 after the Islamic Revolution in Iran in February 1979.
Recall that just a month and a half ago, on July 8, 2021, US President Joe Biden spoke about the 300,000-strong Afghan army, which they trained and equipped, spending $89 billion over 17 years. He tried to explain that there can be no question of the defeat of this powerful army, supported by Washington, to the Taliban, numbering 75,000 people.
After these statements were made by Biden, a report released to the public by the CIA noted that the fall of Kabul could take 90 days. Just 4 days after the announcement of this information, the Taliban captured Kabul.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's statements about holding talks with the Taliban and his words that he can talk to the leader of the Taliban have been criticised. It is fundamentally wrong that he continues to refuse to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was elected like himself, as well as with Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who represents 16 million people.
After the capture of Kabul by the Taliban, Biden's plan after his negotiations with Erdogan on Turkey's fulfilment of the task of "protecting the airport" failed. Biden probably built this plan based on the assumption that the Taliban* would not be able to enter the capital. This plan failed, as well as his other unfulfilled forecasts.
Turkey has about 500 soldiers in this country. The Taliban said that they "consider all foreign soldiers, including Turkish soldiers, to be occupying forces." Therefore, now is the right time for Turkey to withdraw all its troops, while maintaining a diplomatic presence in the country.
Afghanistan has a special territory. It is assumed that about 80% of the world's heroin is produced in this country. From this we can make a conclusion about the share of the well-known Central America. Despite the fact that this Central Asian country has been struggling for decades with the drug trade that has taken hold of it, it can find resources.
From this point of view, the expression "To own Afghanistan means to own the world drug trade” will not be erroneous. In this regard, those who have power in Afghanistan on the one hand become stronger to the extent that they set the direction for drugs.
The strong desire of someone from Turkey to establish relations with Afghanistan in this regard means the emergence of new problems for our head. If the established relations with Afghanistan are based on similar motives as in Syria and Libya, this means that new crises should be expected in Turkey and even in the entire region.
The Turkish armed forces are at the same time with paramilitary groups
Turkey, which has the longest land border with Syria, began to take a direct part in the Syrian civil war, which has been going on since 2011, and it cited the stability in the region and the activities of terrorist organisations as the reason for the intervention.
Turkey's intervention in the Syrian civil war with the growth of attacks and threats from ISIS continued through the support of the Free Syrian Army against Bashar al-Assad and the unilateral desire for independence in Syria of the People's Self-Defence Units (YPG), as well as the "Euphrates Shield", "Source of Peace", "Olive Branch", and "Spring Shield” operations. As a result of these operations, such cities as Idlib, Jarabulus, Al-Bab, Azaz, Ras al-Ayn and Tell Abyad came under the control of the Turkish army.
What benefits has Turkey received as a result of dozens of such operations carried out over the past ten years? And has it brought any benefit to the region?
Turkish military units are still functioning in the north of Syria. In the conditions of the progressive economic crisis, millions of dollars are spent daily on piloting aircraft, transferring soldiers, patrolling areas, transportation, accommodation, ammunition, etc. This is the financial summary of the irrational intervention in Syria.
There is another side to the matter – participation in demographic engineering in areas of Syria with a predominantly Kurdish population, and constant military persecution of Kurdish settlements and self-government units in these regions and systematic violations of human rights.
In addition, all of this is done on the territory of another country. That is, you go to your neighbour on the border with your military, live there permanently, open a school and a police station in these places, appoint officials, and literally occupy this territory.
In the occupied region, you take as allies the former jihadist fighters of ISIS and Al-Nusra, who perceive the Kurds as enemies, and do their dirty deeds together with them. You involve them in operations together with the Turkish armed forces as paramilitary units, making Turkish soldiers complicit in these crimes in their crimes against humanity.
Oil revenues... olive groves...
As is shown in one of the documentaries made by Russia Today (RT), a number of formations close to the regime of the Palace in Turkey have been "managing" the oil extracted from this region for a long time. There, together with influential fanatical jihadist terrorists, they transport oil extracted from Syrian oil fields through Turkey via Turkish trucks for further bringing it to the market, and make huge profits.
This is speculation, it has many interested parties, and this is one of the most important reasons for the presence of soldiers in Syria. Through an absolutely robber mentality, the seizure of other people's property and extortion, they pump oil. And it is beautifully presented under a wonderful fanatical-nationalist Ottoman cover, that "these are our former lands", and is served on the domestic market. They play the role of a kind of "great state" that "captures" these places and suppresses hostile thieves!
Olive trees grow in this region. Hectares of olive groves. They find application for tons of olive oil obtained from these olive groves. These oils are labeled that they were allegedly obtained from manufacturers in Turkey, which is theft, and then such oils are legalised and released to both domestic and foreign markets. Of course, this "trade" with incredible turnover is one of the reasons for Turkey's "emotional" orientation towards Syria.
Erdogan has won the sympathy of Sunni fanatics
This region is actually a territory where there is only one opposition movement with democratic potential in Syria. In Syria, no one except the Kurds demands a civilised and progressive government. The only thing that worries the Damascus regime is its ability to control the territory.
Who else is here? Islamist-jihadist fanatical terrorist groups! Unfortunately, these are the "closest friends" of Ankara. At first, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was an opposition front with relatively democratic groups. During this period, both the United States and Ankara supported these groups as part of the train-equip strategy. They were supposed to be the future managers of a democratic state governed by the rule of law, which will be created after Assad.
But the US quickly understood the situation. Most of these groups consisted of jihadists, fanatical Islamist terrorists like Al-Qaeda. They have come to this region from all over the world to wage Islamic jihad. Turkey has provided the necessary intelligence infrastructure and technical capabilities for their smooth transition to Syria.
In return, it hoped to win the sympathy of these Sunni fanatics. It was not mistaken. Ankara has never taken retaliatory steps against ISIS under its own free will. With the exception of the so-called aid operations for visibility under US pressure.
What has the Turkish regime done? It provided the Islamist groups from ISIS, Al-Nusra and other jihadists with medical care, telecommunications, housing, food, weapons and ammunition, vehicles, money, logistics, intelligence exchange and, most importantly, a convenient border in the north!
As a NATO member country, Turkey defended the barbarian jihadists who beheaded people, executed people by throwing them off construction sites, and systematically raped the women they abducted and turned them into sex slaves. AKP leader Erdogan, in order to become a "caliph" in the eyes of the people inside the country, on the basis of material ambitions, created a frightening image.
As a result of Ankara's irrational and unthinkable steps, Assad and the ruling elites of Syria have turned into enemies of Turkey. After horrific persecution, the Kurds also moved Ankara into the category of more vicious enemies than Assad. However, if cooperation with the Kurds was started from the very beginning, it could really contribute to the democratisation of Syria. With the US’ withdrawal from Syria, the Kurds were left at the discretion of Turkey.
In Syria, everything will change very soon. In the second half of Biden's term, the US will deal with Syria, because the West sees the Russian presence as a threat. When the Syrian button is pressed, it will have devastating consequences for Turkey. Either the government will come to Ankara, which will put the train on the rails, or the options for using force – economic and military – will come to the fore, as was the case with Serbia.