Finland's entry into NATO will return it to a state of war with Russia
The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mariya Zakharova, on April 15, 2022, answering a question from the media, spoke about the national security of Sweden and Finland and the consequences for them in the event of joining NATO:
"Membership in NATO is not able to strengthen their national security. They will automatically find themselves on the NATO ‘front line’. Moreover, membership in NATO implies, in fact, the renunciation of part of sovereignty in the development of decisions in the field of defence, and in foreign policy."
Mariya Zakharova noted that in recent years, Sweden and Finland have been subjected to a "targeted campaign by external forces to draw” them into the North Atlantic bloc. In addition, as the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry put it, the Swedish and Finnish authorities "should also understand the consequences of such a step for our bilateral relations and the European security architecture as a whole, which is now in a state of crisis."
On April 22, 2022, the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat published its analysis on the possible results of the vote on NATO membership in the Finnish Parliament. The forecast for us is disappointing: only 12 deputies out of 200 will be against it.
Let's talk about specific deadlines. The Finnish Parliament may decide to apply for membership in the alliance by the end of May 2022. The Swedish government plans to submit an application at the bloc's summit in June 2022 in Madrid. Thus, in the summer of 2022, both Finland and Sweden can become members of NATO.
The consequences of these countries' membership in the alliance are extremely negative for Russia. The NATO border will be just 150 kilometres from our northern capital, St. Petersburg. The length of the Russian-NATO border will grow more than twofold.
Russia, of course, is primarily concerned about Finland. We have a common border with a length of 1,324 kilometres, 1,270 kilometres of which account for the land border with rivers and lakes.
Russia will consider the new NATO members represented by Sweden and Finland as military targets, including targets for Russian nuclear weapons. It is obvious that the number of enemy manpower and military equipment at the Russian borders will increase. Accordingly, our country will have to respond by deploying conventional armed forces, as well as by deploying non-strategic nuclear deterrence.
The means of non–strategic nuclear deterrence are tactical (non-strategic) nuclear weapons (TNW). It is TNW that plays the role of the main factor of regional deterrence for Russia, because in conventional armed forces, the NATO bloc has a clear superiority over the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
If we talk about the means of delivering TNW, then first of all, the “Iskander” operational-tactical missile system should be highlighted. Its range of destruction reaches 500 kilometres. From the Russian territory, it can easily reach both Helsinki, the capital of Finland, and Stockholm, the capital of Sweden.
Now the “Iskander” missile defence system is actively used during a special military operation in Ukraine and has confirmed its unique tactical and technical characteristics. In the “Iskander-M” modification, the launcher of the complex carries two 9M723 quasi-ballistic missiles. The “Iskander-K” modification includes two 9M728/R-500 cruise missiles.
It is known from open sources that the 9M723 missile can be in both conventional and special versions, i.e. with a nuclear warhead with a capacity of 50 kilotons in TNT equivalent. It should be noted that the American atomic bomb "Little Boy" that was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, had a capacity of 20 kilotons.
Russia can respond to the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance from 30 to 32 members at the expense of Sweden and Finland not only by strengthening its military grouping in this direction.
Such line-up also affects the goals of the special military operation in Ukraine. The logic of the confrontation with NATO dictates the need to establish control over the entire Ukrainian territory. Let's add to this the deepening of cooperation in the defence sphere with Belarus. Thus, Russia may eventually regain control over almost the entire western border of the USSR.
In addition, after the arrival of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation through the Odessa region to the borders of Pridnestrovie, Moscow may recognise the independence of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. The question of the Republic of Moldova remains open. The President of this country, Maia Sandu, applied for membership in the European Union on March 3, 2022. Moldova's membership in the EU does not meet Russia's geopolitical interests, because then Moldova will be consolidated in the zone of Western influence and after a while will become a member of NATO.
Thus, the Russian Federation has with what to respond to the accession of Sweden and Finland to the North Atlantic Alliance. In addition, do not forget what requirements in mid–December 2021 our country set for the United States and NATO in security guarantees - the military infrastructure of the alliance should roll back to the borders as of 1997. After the successful completion of the special military operation in Ukraine, this issue will be raised again, but from Russia's new geopolitical positions.
As for Finland, its intention to join NATO is legally null and void, Helsinki has no rights to this action. The Paris Peace Treaty with Finland of February 10, 1947 is still in force. Let me remind you that Finland was the closest ally of Nazi Germany in World War II, fought against the USSR, the Finnish armed forces took part in the siege of Leningrad, and together with the Finnish civilian occupational authorities committed war crimes on Soviet territory.
The Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 imposed a number of restrictions on Finland. I will quote an excerpt from article 13 of the treaty: "The maintenance of land, sea and air force weapons and fortifications will be strictly limited so as to meet the tasks of an internal nature and local border defence." This means that Finland not only has no right to join NATO, but also has no right to interact with NATO outside its borders.
Article 22 of the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty states that it can be amended only by agreement between the UN Security Council and Finland. And Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, will never give its consent to this. I believe that China will take the same position.
I would like to draw attention to the fact that attempts to unilaterally amend the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 or its cancellation by Helsinki are not only legally null and void, but also plunge this country into a legal state preceding the conclusion of this peace treaty.
The legal status preceding the conclusion of the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 means the return of Finland to September 19, 1944, the date of the conclusion of the Armistice Agreement between the USSR and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, on the one hand, and Finland, on the other.
Legally, this also means the return of Finland to a state of war with Russia (the successor of the USSR), as well as Britain. Because it is precisely for termination of the state of war that the Paris Peace Treaty with Finland was concluded on February 10, 1947.
It seems reasonable to bring this legal situation through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation not only to Finland, but also to all NATO countries. Not everyone will be happy to welcome a new member who is at war with Russia, the state with the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet.
The Finnish public will also be very "happy" about this situation, which should also be informed through channels independent from the Finnish state.
Thus, Finland will make a fatal mistake by joining NATO. Russia should not put up with this. Finland's going beyond the legal framework of the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 will be a violation of international law and will quite reasonably raise the question of its forced return to the legal field.