An anthology of non accidental "accidents". Part One

To understand some things, sometimes it’s necessary to remember the past and reflect, including by contradiction.

Here, for example, is one event: the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Three American presidents - Obama, Trump and Biden - promised to terminate the deployment of the army in Afghanistan. The real reduction began under Trump. A significant reason for the beginning was the Doha Agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban (February 29, 2020).

The Americans fully withdrew provided the Taliban opposed Al-Qaeda and their negotiations with the current government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. However, there were also other conditions.

Under Trump, it was established that by July 2020, the number of American troops would be 8,600, and the full withdrawal would end by May 1, 2021. Biden postponed the end date of the military presence in Afghanistan to August 31, 2021, which was subsequently fulfilled.

No one cared anymore that the Taliban had taken over the whole country. I recall newsreel footage covering the last days of that August. Wild stampedes at evacuation sites among Afghans fleeing the country, piles of military equipment, weapons and other property abandoned by the Americans, shooting and explosions in some places, smiling Taliban with Kalashnikovs at the ready, the capture in early September of the last stronghold of local resistance - the Panjshir Gorge, that is, Panjshir province. And no negotiations with the former government. But, after all, it's not in this way that agreement was made. But who cares now?

Now the Taliban call this country the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Just as they called it in the period from 1996 to 2001, until they were overthrown by the Northern Alliance, supported by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Or International forces that supported the Northern Alliance.

Here anyone can have their opinion, but it's still ISAF that was the first in this affair. International forces, if we omit some trifles, were exclusively the brainchild of the United States. This ended its 20-year activity with zero result. The Taliban are back in power. Everything passed like haze from white apple trees.

So, the US troops of the coalition partners have been withdrawn from Afghanistan. For the Americans it was 8,600 soldiers with fresh experience, for the same Britons, Germans and Italians about a thousand respectively. And what's next? Then these forces should be dispersed to their homes, or applied somewhere. Here, for example, is the intended possible application.

In mid-April 2021, a senior official from the US administration said: "One of the reasons why the president and his team took cautious steps on Afghanistan is to free up the time, attention and resources of our leadership and military and focus on what we regard as the key challenges of the 21st century, and they are mainly connected with the Indo-Pacific region."

In May 2021, the possibility of transferring forces to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Arab countries, and even to ships in the seas was considered, but still closer to Afghanistan.

Was it possible to believe this? On the one hand - it is possible, on the other - it is impossible. Biden himself claimed something like the following: There is no point in staying in Afghanistan and wasting resources on people who don't want to fight. Is this the real reason? Useless waste of money is not held in high esteem by capitalists.

In addition, the growth of China's capabilities forces the West to take restraining measures, as with Russia. The US, UK and Australian military bloc (AUKUS) was established on September 15, 2021. It is worth paying attention to the date. Of course, a new bloc will require new personnel.

But there is no data on the saturation of the new structure, for example, with personnel, yet. In the Asia-Pacific region, there are already enough troops at numerous military facilities, even at the same US bases.

How can we assess here – was the idea of transferring Americans closer to China accidentally slipped through, or was it the forward-looking intimidation of China? It can be assumed that there was an attempt to intimidate China. And then a thought by contradiction: if the troops do not go to the western edge of the Pacific Ocean, then where are they going?

There were reports that some units previously stationed in Afghanistan and withdrawn to the United States were transferred to Europe. These are, in particular, the forces and means of the 82nd Airborne Division, which arrived in Poland and Romania in early February 2022. 

So they set their sights on Europe. The accumulation of American troops on this part of the land became obvious. Under Trump in 2020, we were talking about 50,000 military personnel. Although there are some discrepancies regarding the number of American military personnel in Europe, let's take this number as a basis. Now (under Biden) their number exceeds 100,000.

It should be remembered that a large training on the transfer of thousands of troops from the United States to Europe was planned back in 2020 during the large-scale exercise "Defender of Europe 2020", January-July. The main area of the exercise is Poland and the Baltic countries.

It was planned to involve up to 45,000 military personnel from 18 states. The main part was to be provided by the United States – 20,000 from the regular army and 7,000 from the National Guard were to be transferred from the continent, 9,000 were to be taken in Europe, a total of 36,000 people. But the coronavirus prevented it. The scale of this exercise and other military exercises of the bloc coordinated with it had to be reduced. According to Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, the exercises were supposed to be the largest in the last 30 years.

Apparently, during the exercise there were inconsistencies that had to be eliminated. It can be assumed that the control system of the growing grouping of forces and means could not cope with the work. Therefore, in October 2020, in Germany, the Americans recreated the 5th Army Corps (AC) of the American Ground Forces (GF) as part of the US Army Command in Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF, Wiesbaden).

The advanced headquarters of the corps was deployed in Poznan (Poland). It's only October 2020. Was it already back then that they planned something bad? And can this be attributed to random events? Now it can't. The enemy was working according to a long-standing plan. No surprises.

This can also be said in this way: the coronavirus had nothing to do with it. They, though not immediately, realised that the control/command system was not at all ready to work on such a scale, so they reduced the activities and took up strengthening the capabilities of the military authorities. Nothing accidental or unexplained. 

The shortcomings identified in 2020 were eliminated in 2021 at the “Defender of Europe 2021” exercise (March-June). 31,000 people from 27 countries were involved and additional territories - the southern part of the "eastern" flank of NATO. The headquarters of the American 5th AC were now confidently leading the events. The system was debugged.

Here they had again to struggle with the shortcomings. It seems that then there was a need to improve the field artillery control system. Therefore, after this exercise, from August to November 2021, the previously abolished 56th Field Artillery Command (Mainz-Kastel, Germany) was restored as part of the same USAREUR-AF. This command was again deployed to organise the defeat of objects in Europe.

It’s possible to ask yourself another (now obviously stupid) question - why did they do it? Now the answer is quite simple - to ensure the conduct of hostilities by the Ukrainian regime. Either against the republics of Donbass, or against Russia. It turns out, there is nothing accidental.

If we recall an earlier event, we can see: on November 30, 2018, the US Army re-deployed the 41st Field Artillery Brigade in Germany (Grafenwöhr, Bavaria). The brigade was armed, in particular, with the M270A1 MLRS (multiple launch rocket system) and M142 HIMARS (high mobility artillery rocket system). Well, why did they need it? Another accident? Not at all.

It seems that the bet on MLRS of these types has been made long time ago. Here are the features and visible advantages of this weapon. MLRS are designed for firing jet-propelled missiles (JM) and ballistic missiles (BM). Large-caliber shells (227 and 240 mm) with a range of 45 to 84 kilometres, depending on the type. In the case of controlled JM with an inertial navigation system and satellite GPS, they are very accurate. The head parts are cassette ones. The difference between MLRS: M270 is on a tracked base with 12 shells, M142 is on a wheelbase with six shells.

Both installations can be equipped with the BM ATACMS (army tactical missile system) operational-tactical missile system of various designs with the longest flight range up to 300 km. Two BM are installed on the M270, and one on the M142. It is possible to increase the firing range up to 500 km due to the use of new PrSM (precision strike missile) BM. Due to the improved technical characteristics compared to ATACMS, the M270 will have four missiles, and the M142 will have two.

Among the obvious advantages of these MLRS are the high power of shells/missiles, rate of fire, high mobility and, as a result, good stealth and low vulnerability of complexes. At the same time, the nuclear warhead is easily mounted on the missile.

These jet-propelled systems have long been moved to our territory. For the first time in Europe, M142 HIMARS were used in Estonia at the NATO Saber Strike 2016 exercise. Then in November 2020, they appeared in Romania.

Most recently, on May 24, 2022, in Estonia, at the “Defender of Europe 2022” exercise, firing was carried out on training targets with the American M142 and two British M270. The shooting was carried out by the British from the area of the central military training ground of Estonia near Tallinn and by the Americans from the cape (village) Undva of Saaremaa Island. This is just to block our exit from the Gulf of Finland to the Baltic Sea. From Tallinn to St. Petersburg in a straight line there is a little more than 300 km, and even less to the Russian border.

But that's not all. On the same day, in the Baltic Sea on the Danish island of Bornholm, firing was conducted by one American M142, urgently delivered by an American C-17 military transport aircraft from the Ramstein Air Base in Germany. The distance from Bornholm to Kaliningrad is about 360 km. From the island, it’s possible to control a section of the Baltic Sea from coast to coast, the width of which in that area is about 170 km. The media commented this event as the bloc's demonstration of its military capabilities to Russia.

Two M142 were also airlifted to Romania by MC-130J aircraft from Ramstein. JM launches were carried out towards the Black Sea. After that, they were quickly returned to Germany. There is no great sense in such manoeuvres if the fire is conducted with conventional JM and BM. But if the BMs are with nuclear warheads, then the threat increases significantly.

We can return to Afghanistan, where the coalition withdrew from, bearing in mind the following circumstances. There was no point in staying there while planning a war in Europe. The risk of not being able to cope with the opponents on two fronts was too great. Given the situation around China, it was possible to get a third front. This is too much. There are other considerations, but these ones are already enough.

They did not want to leave themselves wide open in Asia, they left and concentrated resources in Eastern Europe.

Then "accidental" becomes deadly logical. Naturally, long-range means of field artillery (FA) need good intelligence support. Best of all in real time. Only high-tech troops can provide such efficiency along with the required accuracy in determining the coordinates and state of targets.

Or states, if we take it more broadly and take into account the possibilities of obtaining data from, for example, satellite surveillance systems for dual or purely civilian purposes. Or satellite communication/information transmission systems. Unambiguously, the 56th command of the FA of the US Army has such data. The same data is transmitted to the security forces of the Kiev regime, which has never been hidden.

Assistant to the President of the United States/White House Press Secretary Jennifer Psaki at a briefing with journalists on March 3 reported: Washington transmits intelligence data about Russian troops to Ukraine in real time. She named the American satellite grouping as the main source. At the same time, Psaki said, "We've been doing this for several months." Someone translated this as "many". It is a pity that she did not specify how many months "before" this the United States were transmitting information.

At a hearing in the Armed Services Committee of the House of Representatives of the US Congress on March 17 (Central American time), several military leaders reported on cooperation with the Kiev regime in the field of intelligence data transmission.

These are US Deputy Secretary of Defence for Intelligence Ronald Moultrie, Head of the Intelligence Department of the US Department of Defence Scott Berrier, Commander of the US Cyber Command/Director of the US National Security Agency (NSA) Paul Nakasone. The NSA, in particular, conducts electronic intelligence. According to the general assessment of the military, things with intelligence and the transfer of the necessary information to the Ukrainian regime "are as good as ever”.

On April 7, for the first time, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin personally confirmed the transfer of intelligence data, including on targets in the territory controlled by the DPR and the LPR.  Austin was speaking to members of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

A day later, the press secretary of the US Department of Defence, Rear Admiral John Kirby, broke into the broadcast of the American evening news program PBS NewsHour. As it seems, he tried to smooth out Austin's words by shifting attention to the idea of transmitting information "useful for defence purposes”. He also remarked so sweetly: we are trying to do this, while this information "can be used".

Kirby, of course, has basic acting skills. On American Friday, April 29, he almost shed a tear at a briefing when he talked about the "atrocities of the Russian military," as always on the basis of videos fabricated by the Kiev regime. It's all acting. And why didn't he cry when he presented absolutely non-staged materials about the death of innocent people at the hands of nationalists?

Since May 20, Kirby has been working as a coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council of the White House. He is subordinate to Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Jake Sullivan. I wonder if this should be regarded as a promotion or demotion?

Kirby was almost suffering again when on June 21 he reported on the "shock" of the US authorities who learned that in Russia (according to the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov) they allow "the possibility of the death penalty for two American citizens who were in Ukraine”. After all, they were just there, not doing anything evil, poor things. He still should have to shed tears, remembering the virtuous American citizens. Kirby, call Denis Pushilin and ask how he is doing. He will explain everything to you in a popular way.

From bad to worse, as usual. At the conference of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS, Washington, DC. Colombia) on June 14, 2022, US Deputy Secretary of Defence for Political Affairs Colin Kahl said: the US will provide the Ukrainian nazis with MLRS M142 HIMARS and "everything necessary to strike targets on Ukrainian territory”. Colin Kahl was appointed by the Senate for the position on April 28, 2021 at Biden's suggestion. And, as always, this Kahl is tasked with an active fight against Russia. The previously indicated aggravation goes from date to date. Nothing accidental.

To be continued...