The West is delaying the inevitable end of Ukraine
Analysing the approach of Western countries to the special military operation conducted by Russia in Ukraine, in the previous article "The West is preparing to freeze the conflict in Ukraine", it was concluded that Western elites are beginning to realise that in this conflict their costs already exceed the profits, and it's time to get out of it, but with face saved.
On June 15, the third “Ramstein 3” meeting of NATO members was held, where the issue of military assistance to Ukraine was discussed. The next day, the heads of France, Italy, Germany and Romania visited Kiev, and a day later, the British Prime Minister arrived on a visit. Summarising the results of these meetings, we can conclude not only about the current geopolitical situation, but also about the medium-term prospects of the special military operation itself.
The third meeting of the chiefs of staff and defence ministers of almost 50 countries, “Ramstein 3”, did not go as was expected in Kiev. The Ukrainian leadership conducted a serious information campaign before this event. Adviser to the Ukrainian President Mikhail Podolyak called on Western countries to supply Ukraine with 300 rocket launchers, 500 tanks and 1,000 howitzers.
In order to solicit this military assistance from the West, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky and his subordinates, after a long silence on the topic of losses of the Ukrainian army, had to publicly voice unpleasant figures. Zelensky began with figures from 50 to 100 dead per day, Ukrainian Defence Minister Aleksey Reznikov brought the total losses to 500 people per day, and the representative of the Ukrainian president David Arakhamiya in an interview with the American political website Axios mentioned the daily losses of 1,000 killed and wounded Ukrainian soldiers.
The figures presented by Arakhamiya even caused a scandal in Ukrainian society, as it turned out that they exceed the figures of losses of the Russian army, which are voiced by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but this "puncture" was quickly covered up, this episode was not discussed further on social networks. The fact is that at that time Arakhamiya headed the Ukrainian delegation that arrived in Washington to lobby the Biden administration and the US Congress for new arms supplies to Ukraine.
To describe the urgency of military supplies, they involved Denis Sharapov, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine responsible for the purchase of weapons, and Vladimir Karpenko, commander of the logistics support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In an interview with the American National Defence Magazine, Sharapov complained that during the counter-battery fight, 2 out of 6 American M777 howitzers have to be withdrawn for repair due to damage, and there were difficulties with spare parts.
Karpenko, in turn, said that Ukraine's current losses of heavy weapons are up to 50%. "About 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles, 400 tanks, and 700 artillery systems were lost," Karpenko explained.
Following the “Ramstein 3” meeting, the United States announced a new billion-dollar military aid package. This aid package includes 18 M777 howitzers, 36,000 rounds of ammunition, and 4 M142 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. In addition, Ukraine will receive two mobile installations for launching anti-ship missiles of the "Harpoon" type and several thousand American protected radio stations and individual night vision devices.
A representative of the Ukrainian delegation, "Sasha" Ustinova, said “We asked for 10 times more”. “One of the strategies that foreign partners are considering is to exhaust Putin. Sorry, but we're draining our own people. We are literally losing our people," she said. "Four HIMARS is nothing."
The Politico publication reported that sources in the Pentagon are considering the delivery of 4 more HIMARS installations for Ukraine, while Germany and the United Kingdom were going to deliver 3 M270 multiple launch rocket systems each.
However, the White House is still wary of providing Ukraine with long-range missiles, as they can be used to hit targets in Russia. According to Arakhamiya, Kiev assured Washington that such weapons will be used only on the territory of Ukraine. “We are ready to sign any guarantees in writing," he said.
Arakhamiya even offered to vote on this issue in the Ukrainian parliament. According to Ustinova, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine Reznikov recently wrote a letter to the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, in which he gave a guarantee of non-use of American MLRS on the territory of Russia.
The New York Times noted that during the “Ramstein 3” meeting, some NATO members were afraid to send heavy weapons to Ukraine, hoping for a negotiated truce, since they do not need an escalation of this conflict. In addition, in the absence of the possibility of rapid replenishment of weapons, the members of the alliance do not want to empty their own arsenals. There are difficulties with logistics and training of the Ukrainian military in the use of supplied weapons. There is also concern that Russian troops are capable of seizing the supplied weapons.
For example, the United States decided not to send four MQ-1C Grey Eagle drones to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the delivery of which was initially approved by the White House. The sale was opposed by the Pentagon's Office for Defence Technology Protection, due to the fact that Russia may get advanced radar and reconnaissance equipment installed on the drone.
On June 16, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi arrived in Kiev, while Romanian President Klaus Iohannis arrived a little later. All of them took part in the meeting with Zelensky.
However, it is worth noting that during this visit, the French president did not mention the words that he said a day earlier, in Romania, that the president of Ukraine will have to negotiate with Russia, and the Europeans will be present at the negotiating table, providing security guarantees.
As a result of the visit, all the heads of state expressed approximately the same spirit that Ukraine itself should decide on the conditions for ending the conflict, including the territorial issue. They promised to support Ukraine in granting the status of a candidate for EU membership.
Macron also said that France will supply Ukraine with 6 more Caesar self-propelled howitzers, to the existing 12. However, he confirmed that Western countries have agreements not to provide Ukraine with certain types of weapons, in particular attack aircraft and tanks. "You are talking about an informal agreement, but it is almost an official position of our NATO partners that we are helping Ukraine defend itself, but we are not going to war with Russia," said Macron, adding that Kiev is aware of these agreements.
The German newspaper Die Welt reported that the leaders of Germany, France and Italy "behind closed doors" probably persuaded Vladimir Zelensky to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia, in exchange for granting the status of a candidate for EU membership. "Economic growth has slowed, inflation has reached record levels," Die Welt describes the situation, pointing out the negative consequences of the protracted conflict in Ukraine that European countries are facing.
As the Wall Street Journal writes, the electoral approval ratings of the leaders of the three countries are falling amid the growth of energy carriers in Europe. The current situation has probably already cost Macron's party a majority in the French parliament, while regional elections in Germany are approaching, and national elections in Italy will be held in the middle of next year. Most likely, there was some pressure on Zelensky, because in 3 days the European Commission announced that the status of a candidate for EU membership of Ukraine could be revoked.
At the same time, it became clear that at the moment the three leaders of the main EU countries are not in a position to persuade Kiev to negotiate with Moscow. The United States and the United Kingdom are the two players that support Ukraine's militaristic ambitions. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, ostentatiously arrived in Kiev the next day to dispel any hopes of the EU for the early start of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
Johnson in an article for the Sunday Time warned that Britain and its Western allies must be prepared for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. In his opinion, the West should provide Ukraine with everything necessary, both for the army and for the state as a whole. To do everything possible to end the conflict "on Zelensky's terms”.
The UK's strategy for Ukraine was calculated even before the acute phase of the conflict began, because it wants not so much the defeat of Russia as the weakening of the EU and the formation of alternative, subordinate unions.
At the same time, only the United States is the main military sponsor of Ukraine and, as was noted in one of the previous materials, the conditional "doves" and "hawks" of the White House are fighting for the US’ political position on Ukraine. According to NBC News, according to several White House administration officials, US President Joe Biden said that Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin and State Department Secretary Antony Blinken went too far in making statements after a visit to Kiev on April 24.
Let me remind you what Austin back then said: "We believe that we can win, they can win if they have the right equipment, and we will do everything possible... We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine."
"Biden wasn't happy when Blinken and Austin talked about Ukraine's victory,” one White House source said. According to NBC News, the current situation shows that, despite the unexpected successes of Ukraine at an early stage, the conflict is protracted, with Russia slowly continuing its offensive. At the same time, such comments from officials may raise unrealistic expectations in Ukraine and increase the risk of the United States entering into a direct conflict with Russia.
NBC News reports that White House officials are quietly debating whether Zelensky should moderate his tough public stance on not allowing territorial concessions to Russia as part of the peace deal, according to seven current and former US and European officials. Biden himself takes the position that Ukraine should decide for itself on what conditions to end this conflict.
As was mentioned earlier, Biden is under serious pressure from fellow party members who record damage to the US economy due to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, which casts doubt on their political future, which will be decided in the elections this autumn. The main mouthpiece of the Democratic party, Politico magazine, published an article written by Charles Kupchan, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University and former member of the National Security Council under Presidents Obama and Clinton.
This article explicitly states that there is too much "hawkish rhetoric" in Washington, and the stakes are too high, as the conflict represents the most dangerous geopolitical moment since the Cuban missile crisis. Therefore, "instead of offering arms with no strings attached — effectively leaving strategy up to the Ukrainians — Washington needs to launch a forthright discussion about war termination with allies, with Kiev, and ultimately, with Moscow," a prolonged conflict does not benefit Ukraine itself, the author writes.
At the same time, the Washington Post, presenting a different point of view in the White House, writes that the United States and its allies are preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, as they "will not allow Moscow to gain the upper hand”. However, the same article admits that Ukraine is taking up time and resources that should have been spent on confronting China.
This discord in the American press confirms the difficult choice of the White House. On the one hand, he simply cannot allow the defeat of Ukraine before the congressional elections in November this year, as this will be used by opponents of the Democratic party, also recalling the trauma inflicted on American society by a hasty exit from Afghanistan. On the other hand, continued active support for Ukraine will weaken US capabilities in the Pacific.
Probably the most accurate position of the White House, at the moment, was voiced on June 16 by US National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan: "Our task is to give them (the Ukrainians) the tools necessary to take the strongest possible position (in negotiations).” The head of the State Department Blinken also made statements in approximately the same spirit.
Summing up the position of the main Western countries, we can say that except for the UK, no one is going to bear serious military costs because of Ukraine and they do not need its "victory at any cost" at all, and, of course, they are not going to take Ukraine on full maintenance.
In the USA, Germany, France and UK the central media publishes materials that say that the "scales" are tipping in favour of the Russian army, so they are preparing their population for the fact that it is Russia that will set the terms of peace agreements with Ukraine.
Only when this public is morally ready, and Ukraine has exhausted its potential for resistance, will Western politicians again talk about the need for peace talks.
The position of the West on the supply of weapons causes serious concern in Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba declared his readiness to "fight with shovels" if the supply of Western weapons to Kiev stops. Adviser to the Ukrainian president Aleksey Arestovich explained the limited supply of weapons by the fact that the West allegedly fears that the victories of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the fronts will bring down political power in Russia, and the West is not interested in destabilising Russia.
He also expressed disappointment that the weapons will arrive later than expected by the Ukrainian authorities, and the current supplies will help turn the tide in only a few areas of combat, but still promised a counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces after August. David Arakhamiya, as a member of the negotiating group from Ukraine, allowed the resumption of the negotiation process after the counteroffensive in late August.
We, for our part, can commit to paper that Ukraine understands the inevitability of an early conclusion of peace agreements with Russia, but they want to do this after a successful counteroffensive and increasingly mention Kherson in this context. This counteroffensive should be expected until autumn, since then the Ukrainian government will need to somehow organise the heating season.
The question is: is the Ukrainian Armed Forces capable of such a counteroffensive? Zelensky spoke about 700,000 military personnel in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the moment, Arakhamiya in an interview with Axios spoke about the million-strong army and the opportunity to recruit another two million. Rostislav Ishchenko writes about the 500,000 mobilisation potential of Ukraine. However, the total figure is still several times higher than the grouping of the Russian Armed Forces involved in the special military operation, even according to the estimates of the Ukrainian General Staff, it is only 333,000 people.
At the moment, the tactics of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are to contain the offensive of the Russian army by throwing newly mobilised and territorial defence fighters to the front line. This tactic is partly justified – the Russian command tries to protect its personnel and therefore conducts serious artillery preparation before the infantry attack. An artillery or mortar shell is equally likely to hit a special forces soldier or a first-time conscript, even in a well-equipped trench.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to preserve the backbone of the regular military, so it is very common to find videos where Ukrainian servicemen complain about the lack of commanders directly on the line of engagement. It would also be hard to believe, but the Ukrainian soldiers themselves say that they have to finish off their wounded in order to put them out of their misery, due to the lack of medical care. Of course, such “throwing of corpses" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is obvious on the front line, but it is hidden from the general Ukrainian public.
Summarising the above, we can say that if the defence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass does not collapse in the coming month, then even with the current level of military assistance from the West, Ukraine will try to organise a counteroffensive by autumn, albeit with small chances of success.
It should not be ruled out that Ukraine may try to seize an arsenal of 42,000 tons of ammunition in the village of Kolbasna in the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic, which will give the conflict a new informational colour. Of course, on the part of Ukraine, everything can be limited to some kind of provocation like "Bucha", just to draw the attention of the world community to the conflict and the inevitable negotiations with Russia.
The Russian public needs to be prepared for this development and understand that time is playing out in our favour. Even if peace talks with Ukraine resume, this does not mean that the fighting will immediately be stopped – on June 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin once again confirmed that all the tasks of the special military operation will be completed.