Asian War - when to expect it?
At present, all our attention is focused on the battle that Russia is waging with the West, and this is quite natural. A special military operation, sanctions and counter-sanctions fight, an increasingly clear division of the world, an attack on the dollar "Stanovoy Range" - occupy the entire top of the information agenda, both in our country and almost all over the world. We cannot but be concerned, first of all, about the processes of cleansing Russian society, its reformatting, restructuring in the economic and political spheres, reforms and changes in the army.
Through the prism of the ongoing war with the West, we look at what is happening in all corners of the world, and in many ways this is a justified approach. After all, almost all global processes are directly or indirectly influenced by the historical breakdown that we have begun, and Asia is no exception.
What will happen in this part of the world would be guaranteed to be impossible without certain, far from public connections and interactions between us and China. A significant layer of Russian-Chinese relations lies in the non-public sphere, the level and quality of real cooperation there would unpleasantly stun our overseas sworn partners.
In general, it is necessary to understand the Chinese mentality, in which a special place is occupied by secrecy, so necessary in their understanding for trade or war and developed over dozens of centuries. Any high-level Chinese official never outlines reality in a public report. It always presents either the reality that one should strive for, or a certain super-reality, with false weaknesses and contradictions.
This applies to all areas of Russian-Chinese relations, including the economy. This veil of secrecy is largely a Chinese initiative, which we strongly support. Why would anyone know ahead of time that the backbone of the world's countries has come together to nullify the global dollar-based colonial tax on them, knocking the dollar off its pedestal? There is no doubt that all of China's actions to finally reunite with its integral part, as a cornerstone event that changes all vectors, were agreed upon by our leaders from all main directions.
The entire logic of internal Chinese processes over the past ten years has been aimed at certain actions with Taiwan. Xi Jinping's rise to power, with its founding slogans of "the great rebirth of a UNITED Chinese nation”, set an unambiguous direction for these political actions towards full reunification.
The strengthening of Comrade Xi as a leader also reinforced this trend. With the help of the anti-corruption tools of the "fight against flies and tigers", the American-centric "Komsomol tigers" who put sticks in the wheels of this process were systematically cleaned up. So the field of manoeuvre for achieving the goal was expanded. Under this main political direction, taking into account its specifics, the Chinese Navy and army were created, where everything was sharpened to perform just such a task.
The 20th CCP National Congress in November this year will finally decide whether Xi Jinping will hold the post of General Secretary of the Party and Supreme Leader of the People's Republic of China. July-August – end of local elections to identify potential candidates for new members of the Central Committee. Time is running out for active actions on the part of the "Comrade Xi army clan", so necessary before such a central domestic political event. To radically shift the domestic political rhetoric and agenda, to intercept all levers from the conditional pro-American Komsomol lobby.
But even if China passes this point without bifurcation, the general direction of its actions and the tension around the "other China" problem will not go away. This is clearly visible against the background of Russia's special military operation, in the direction of which the world agenda was off the scale, but in no way interrupted the existing Anglo-Saxon vector about the "number one rival", which needs to be immediately pacified.
The actions of the Washington Democrat administration are aimed at such synergy with the Taiwanese Democrats, now arriving in power, that a separatist legislative rejection of Taiwan is possible, which is enshrined in the island constitution. They will not fail to do this, if they are strong enough, before the next Taiwanese elections in 2024. This critically narrows China's field of manoeuvre.
The global Anglo-Saxon leadership in military and political terms has already taken thorough steps in preparing for such a confrontation with the Middle Kingdom. In public statements, increasingly "chained together" by the Ukrainian conflict, NATO countries have declared their "Asian interest" and the projection of their own military component to Asia.
English elites designed and cemented AUKUS. The Americans revived the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" by organising the QUAD summit and a personal meeting of the leaders of these states (Australia, India, the United States, Japan). By inviting everyone to Washington in parallel with the 76th session of the UN General Assembly, we can say that we have eclipsed it.
The weakest link in this ephemeral QUAD alliance is India. This country does not reject the bonuses that are showered on it as a result of such a natural multi-vector approach, but in no case will it allow itself to be drawn into the funnel of an inevitable conflict.
The creation of AUKUS, with its pronounced military character, even caused some relief in India. "Now the QUAD alliance can focus on other aspects of cooperation and maintain the reputation of a not-too-military alliance" is heard in the background in the top Indian leadership and is a good marker.
Other countries in the region, such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, are actively hoeing on both sides. We see here a serious tug of war between the Middle Kingdom and the West, the Anglo-Saxons are heating up the territorial disputes of these countries with China, "combing" sore spots. Many things play a role, including the personal qualities of the leaders of these countries.
So far, the Americans who are active in this area are clearly not able to win over all of them to their side, even on the contrary. Therefore, the US president's tour focused on the closest allies - South Korea and Japan. For the Chinese neighbours listed above, shuttle diplomacy is not carried out by such venerable functionaries as Biden. But when the Taiwan conflict flares up, an inevitable avalanche-like activation of all processes will occur for these three. Any actions will get incongruous with peacetime sharpness.
With proper "scratching of the sore", all territorial claims will sharply escalate, something else will come out of the conflict into the open, and there is still some probability of at least someone being dragged in. After all, the fighting will take place "right next to them", in "their waters", here it is possible and involuntary involvement and a wide field for favourite Anglo-Saxon provocations.
Other countries may be plunged, but Korea, which has taken a course of expanding its own sovereignty in recent years, will try not to get involved in this war. If it is overly involved, it will be dragged through the funnel of this issue into a war with its own northern part, which will turn into a catastrophe for the entire Korean Peninsula. We are still in the new world order to reunite this country into a single Korea, so that everything does not get complicated at all.
Neither Britain, nor Australia, much less the United States, will try to get directly involved in this conflict, and it is extremely unlikely that they will. It is not for nothing that Biden's positive "Yes" to the military confrontation between the United States and China over Taiwan was followed by a wave of clarifications and denials through official American channels. They say that our President said "Yes" to the fact that he heard the question, and was not going to fight with a nuclear China.
The British, as always, behave strangely and habitually in a multi-level way muddy the waters. Otherwise, how else to understand all the fuss around the Solomon Islands, where China is going to deploy its naval base. Australia reared up, which has them right at its side. Only if you look closely, these islands are under a British protectorate, with the governor-general at the head. No one there on any serious foreign policy issue will make an "extra sneeze to the right and left", the decision-making centre is known where.
And then what is it? Deliberately pushing an Australian bull into a fight, while just being drawn into AUKUS and being re-equipped at an accelerated pace? To drag chestnuts out of the fire with someone else's hands? In order to definitely tie the Americans through an attack on AUKUS, to untie one’s hands even more? General rise in degree? There are probably a lot of layers of the British "gloomy foggy genius" here, let's not guess, we'll follow the development of this track.
But who the Anglo-Saxons do not need to goad at all in order to enter into a bloody protracted fight is the Japanese, historically and mentally ready for this. The two poles of the East - China and Japan, at this historical stage cannot have any conjugation. Moreover, with the existing heap of historical contradictions and national grievances, the relations of these countries are a natural powder keg. Here is who will be the central figure of this war.
Anglo-Saxons will remain in the position of loud speakers and supporters. Egging on everyone, including as if "by their example", they will remain aloof. But Japan itself will be ready to get into trouble, it itself, as a power, needs to start solving the regional distortions and imbalances that have appeared with China.
The participants in this future conflict will logically have to outline its framework with each other, find some boundaries that should not be crossed. In this series, there may be the non-use of nuclear weapons by China, and on the part of Japan - not conducting military operations on Chinese territory.
Gradually, as the crisis problems grow in the world, especially in the United States, America will fade into the background of all ongoing conflicts. After such a self-removal of the "big golem", the main attention of a weakened Britain will switch to the European theatre of operations, to the main age-old partner in the "Big Game". Asia in the conflict that has begun will be left to its own devices, leaving only indirect support for the parties.
So, there are all the prerequisites that we will see a prolonged war between China and Japan. All over the world, it will be called the "Asian War", there is some "insider from the future” about this. Against the background of the burning global economic fire, this one, among many others, will also burn. Only with a drastic change in external conditions, the global conjuncture and everything that we can't even imagine from our historical point of view, will these warring countries be able to stop moving. But it will be in a completely different environment in a completely different world.