Operation "compulsion to reason"

At 5 a.m. on February 24, a special military operation began on the territory of Ukraine, the tasks of which are reduced to the principles of "demilitarisation and denazification". Its reasons were described in detail by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his address - the need to protect the security of our state and our citizens, as well as to save the lives of citizens of the LPR, DPR and Russia living on these territories.

The moral necessity of such an operation was confirmed by almost eight years of continuous unilateral shelling of the republics of Donbass that declared their independence from Ukraine. The military reason is even more fundamental - the consistent militarisation of Ukraine, which has been "pumped up" with weapons by NATO countries for years, had one, and only one addressee.

In addition, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky publicly announced plans to restore Ukraine's nuclear status, which it lost in 1994. Thus, the threat at the borders of Russia began to carry not an abstract, but an existential character.

Let's recall that the key parameters of the Russian proposals for building collective security, taking into account the interests of all interested parties, were rejected by the United States and NATO. This means that Russia's reaction, which many consider to be pretty late, is quite logical.

What was that

As it has been repeatedly emphasised by the Russian military and political leadership, among the objectives of the operation there is no occupation of any part of Ukraine, as well as the beginning of a full-scale war against the Ukrainian people. The closest analogue of the events taking place in Ukraine would be the operation to force Georgia to peace in August 2008 - adjusted for the qualitatively increased level of the Russian army.

At 5 o'clock in the morning, the Russian Aerospace Forces, as well as other types of troops, dealt a powerful blow to the entire military system of Ukraine. The first strike destroyed almost all stationary air defence systems, warehouses and control points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as military bases on the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas. Separately, it is worth mentioning the destruction of the 72nd Centre of Information and Psychological Operations located in Kiev, as well as the Ochakov naval base equipped under the supervision of Britain.

At the same time, combat units of the LPR and DPR attacked large contingents of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of Volnovakha (DPR) and Shchastya-Stanitsa Luganskaya (LPR), where they achieved notable successes.

About an hour later, the ground units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation crossed the border of Ukraine from Belarus, Voronezh and Belgorod regions, as well as from Crimea, after which they rushed to the centre of Ukraine in converging directions.

In fact, the main part of the military tasks to destroy the Ukrainian military infrastructure was solved already in the first hours of the special operation.

The resistance of the Ukrainian side can be described as "fragmented", some Ukrainian units surrender without a fight, others tend to resist.

At the moment, the units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are moving towards the strategic boundary of the Dnieper to gain control over the bridges and solve other important tasks.

The Ukrainian military and political leadership announced a general mobilisation, which implies the continuation of hostilities - although their intensity is unclear in the future.

The main political goal of the operation, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov stressed, remains the denazification of Ukraine. This implies just retribution to Ukrainian neo-Nazis personally involved in numerous crimes against the Russian-speaking population of eastern Ukraine.

What will happen next?

Based on the explicitly stated objectives of the operation, the UAF is likely to be destroyed to the extent after which the Ukrainian army will lose the opportunity to threaten anyone for a long time. If there is no agreement with Western partners on the division of zones of influence, then Russia's logical priority will be to push the new borders of Ukraine as far west as possible.

As Dmitry Peskov noted, the "demilitarisation of Ukraine" means the neutralisation of military potential, which has recently been pretty raised, including thanks to the intense activities of foreign countries.

"President Putin has formulated his vision of what we would expect from Ukraine in order for the conceptual ‘red-line’ problems to be solved. This is a neutral status, this is a refusal to deploy weapons. The question here is whether the leadership of Ukraine is ready for this," Peskov stressed.

In the near future, the Ukrainian political system will face a powerful crisis, which the country has not yet faced, even despite the turbulent history of its independence, a coup d'etat and open persecution of political opponents.

Obviously, the country will no longer exist in its former form, it remains to be seen whether the changes will be geographical or political in their nature. There is an inverse relationship between these parameters: the greater political reforms will be possible in the very near future in Ukraine, the more habitual the borders of Ukraine will be after the completion of the military operation.

President Vladimir Zelensky has to make a very serious choice - although outwardly it looks even primitive. To fulfil his election promises regarding the removal of Ukrainian and other nationalists from power, return Ukrainian domestic and foreign policy to pragmatism - or get the status of the last president of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian political system will inevitably enter a zone of turbulence, where there may be a variety of combinations depending on many factors.

The key aspect of understanding the situation will be that Ukraine is not a trophy. This is a chess board on which at least 3-4 players are playing, with situationally coinciding interests and mutual competition. Russia and the USA, to a lesser extent the EU and China - the final configuration of the borders of Ukraine and its political system will be the result of public and non-public negotiations of at least these parties.

According to Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin is ready to hold talks with the leadership of Ukraine on its neutral status and refusal to deploy weapons in case Kiev is ready to respond.  Whether Kiev will have such readiness will be clear in the coming hours, so far the Russian units, having completely taken control of the airspace of Ukraine, are moving towards Kiev and are already on the near approaches to the Ukrainian capital.

The main question for the residents of Ukraine remains - what will happen to the cities and the population. The answer to this question is unambiguous - the tasks of the Russian army, as well as the units of the DPR and LPR, any repression, and even more so the measures that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have subjected the peaceful population of Donbass for 8 years, are categorically not included. Strikes are carried out exclusively on military infrastructure, and Russian units try not to give unnecessary reasons for Ukrainian citizens to panic.

The only ones who will definitely suffer from the current events are the Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Since 2014, representatives of nationalist formations, radicals and terrorists of all stripes have left an extensive dossier on themselves.

Apparently, if these persons remain on the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the republican armies of Donbass, they will have to answer for all crimes. In this case, we are not talking about "lynch verdicts" and other forms of extrajudicial killings. Even under the current Ukrainian legislation, an adequate punishment is imposed for the crimes committed, there is just a need to make it work.

The special operation itself won't last long. Socio-political changes will take more time, and the exact contours of the political system of the "new Ukraine" are still difficult to describe.

One thing is clear - there will be no more rampant nationalism in Ukraine. As events have shown, Russia is ready to use any means to ensure this result.

It is not worth expecting that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will stay on the territory of Ukraine beyond what is necessary to solve the two tasks of the operation – demilitarisation and denazification. As the events of 08.08.08 have shown, the seizure of the territories of neighbouring countries is not in the sphere of Russia's interests.

Perhaps Ukraine should hold consultations with Georgia. After the policy of this country was adjusted towards reason and pragmatic relations, any reasons for conflict with Russia disappeared.