The West is increasing its opposition to Russia
It is known that casus belli is a term from Roman law, denoting the designating occasion (reason) for the beginning (declaration) of war.
Recently, our Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke about the still more or less hidden: "The risks of nuclear war are now very significant, this danger should not be underestimated" (interview with the First Channel, April 25, 2022). He also outlined the parameters of the "red line" - sending troops of the Western coalition to Ukraine. According to him, the leaders of NATO countries exclude the involvement of the alliance in a direct clash with Russia, except for the leadership of Poland.
In turn, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin called his statements dangerous and said he did not believe in the possibility of a nuclear conflict because of the situation around Ukraine (interview with Fox News, March 26, 2022). As we can see, they are watching our reaction very closely on the other side. And they are afraid of something.
What do we have in fact?
On April 26, 2022 at the American Ramstein Air Base (Ramstein district, federal land (state) Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany) hosted a meeting of NATO defence ministers and their alliance allies. In total, representatives from 40 countries were gathered for the meeting. In addition to the representatives of the alliance, the defence ministers of Japan, Australia, Finland, Sweden and Ukraine were present. There was also NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
The event was led, of course, by the American Austin. In particular, he assured the audience that the United States would "move heaven and earth" to give Ukraine what it needs for self-defence (German public TV channel Das Erste). He immediately confirmed that more than 30 allies and partners have already supplied Ukraine with military equipment worth more than $5 billion.
Among the decisions taken: the main goal was approved - the maximum weakening of Russia; an agreement was reached on expanding the supply of "heavy" weapons to Ukraine; a contact group was created to coordinate actions to provide military assistance to Ukraine.
For "heavy" weapons. These are tanks, long-range artillery, SAMs of various ranges. Coordination of actions within the contact group is planned to be carried out monthly.
At the meeting, for example, the "excellent student" of the alliance, German Defence Minister Kristina Lambrecht announced the upcoming transfer of 50 Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns to Ukraine. This decision of the German leadership was even certified in writing by the German government. The UK promised to strengthen air defence, and Canada promised to supply armoured vehicles.
From the "leaks" in the media (German TV channel De Welt, American TV company CNN), it becomes clear that the contact group will work under the leadership of the European Command of the US Armed Forces. The enumeration of the "regalia" of this command alone takes up half a page.
The United States European Command, USEUCOM, EUCOM, a suburb of Stuttgart, Germany) is headed by the commander of USEUCOM - General of the US Air Force Tod Wolters.
The European Command includes: the Command of the US Army in Europe and Africa (United States Army Europe and Africa, USAREUR-AF, Wiesbaden, Germany), the 5th Army Corps of the US Army (the forward headquarters is located in the area of Poznan, Poland. It was also supposed to be located in Krakow); the command of the United States Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa (USAFE-AFAFRICA, USAF Ramstein Air Base, Germany), the 3rd Air Army of the US Air Force (Ramstein Air Base); Command of the United States Naval Forces Europe-Africa (CNE-CNA, Naples, Italy) with the 6th Fleet of the US Navy (Naples); forces and means of the United States Marine Corps Forces (Europe; MARFOREUR, Böblingen, Germany); European Command of the Special Operations Command (Europe; SOCEUR, also in Böblingen).
In total, there were about 75,000 American servicemen in USEUCOM in 2020. Now - about (more than) 100,000.
How was it possible to do without a preliminary “pumping" of the nerves of the representatives of the leadership of the allied countries and in general the Western man in the street? On the eve of the meeting, British Deputy Defence Minister James Heappey said in an interview with Times Radio: "it is absolutely legitimate for Ukraine to strike deep into Russia."
When asked about the possibility of the conflict escalating with the help of British weapons, he replied: "There are many countries in the world that use systems imported from other countries. And when these systems are used, you usually blame not the country of origin, but the country that used it." As is always said - nothing personal, just business.
A few days earlier, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the delivery of "first-class military equipment" to the Kiev regime in the amount of £100 million. These are 120 armoured combat vehicles. It looks like they will include Stormer air defence systems with Starstreak missiles, anti-ship missiles and barrage ammunition. The British agree to supply other modern equipment to replace the T-72 tanks delivered from Poland to the Kiev regime. The issue of transferring some artillery systems is also being considered, since the British leadership does not want to transfer the AS90 ACS yet. It’s possible to believe, but it’s possible to check.
The facts speak for themselves - a hunt has been declared for Russia, the role of a beater has been given to the Kiev regime, there will be plenty of ammunition and food for servants. But who will make the winning shot? It seems that no one dares to do this yet. It's understandable - it's scary, because they forewarned about the consequences more than once.
What will the West do?
Meanwhile, a lot of efforts are focused on rocking the situation, as always, via someone else's hands. The OSCE, as it turned out, passed intelligence data to neo-nazis. In the DPR, its work has been discontinued. One "missionary" has been arrested and will probably testify accordingly. The DPR authorities are investigating the crime. The question has already been asked before - does the OSCE see nothing? It turns out that it sees everything. Only it's not on our side.
A frenzied campaign to "save the innocent" has been launched around the nazis who have settled at "Azovstal" in Mariupol. On April 26, 2022, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres arrived in Moscow. He was first received by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and then by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
It seemed that the UN was concerned only with this question. From the outside, it looked like our President was talking to a young child. He explained the situation to him both ways. Does freedom of choice exist? Yes. Was there a precedent? Yes. Notice, we didn't do it. Is genocide being carried out? Yes. Did they not observe the agreements? They did not comply, they spat on them.
Civilians? The fighting has stopped. Let them go out and go wherever they want. The corridors are announced and created. The nazis are also shown the road. If they want, surrender, if they don't want, don't. There was an impression that Guterres did not understand anything. Or did he work on a previously established program? If they're all like that there, then it turns out there's nothing to talk about with them at all. Some kind of impenetrability. It doesn't even fit in their head. A normal person can't behave like this. But, as practice has shown, they can.
Here's what he said: "... the main task is to improve the humanitarian situation in Ukraine... The UN is ready in two or three days, together with the International Committee of the Red Cross, to assess the situation at Azovstal on the evacuation of civilians ..." The first part of the quoted fragment does not raise any questions. It is necessary to improve the situation. It is impossible to argue. But the continuation simply kills. It turns out he didn't understand anything.
As a result of this meeting, it was still announced that UN specialists and the International Committee of the Red Cross were involved in "the removal of people from the enterprise in Mariupol”. Further resolution of the issue is entrusted to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Russian Ministry of Defence.
It would seem that everything went fine. But here's the bad luck. Again and again the question arises - where was the UN looking before? Why didn't it see the genocide? Why didn't it see thousands of people killed by the nazis? Why did its head decide to come to Moscow just now? Where was it before and what was it doing? To what extent can the UN be unbiased and adequate at all? Why does the UN not see how the Kiev regime repeatedly prevents the evacuation of civilians from dangerous areas? Take the same case in Kramatorsk, when the nazis hit a crowd with a missile of the “Tochka-U” complex. What kind of cluster munitions? The UN simply doesn’t get involved.
Or the crime in Mariupol on April 23, 2022, when Ukrainian nazis from the territory of "Azovstal" opened mortar fire at the gathering place of people. But the evacuation was organised at the request of the "Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister" Irina Vereshchuk. The place and time of the gathering of people were agreed with her. The Russian military was able to shelter civilians from the shelling. One serviceman was wounded. The UN, as always, did not notice this case. Attempts on the lives of Russian journalists? It hasn’t seen it, it doesn’t know about it. A new question - how long can such an attitude be tolerated?
In a game with a long-term cumulative gain on one side, and the other, respectively, a symmetrically increasing loss, someone's nerves may not last. Someone may decide to go all-in. Or someone, wanting to play dishonestly, organises a strong provocation, which eventually becomes a "casus belli". What will happen then?