The world is entering a new reality

In previous publications of RUSSTRAT, even before the start of the special military operation of Russia in Donbass, it was stated that Russia passes the point of no return. Undoubtedly, this historical moment will go down in the history textbooks as a turning point in the twenty-first century. I suggest you take a look at the new picture of the world, which is currently being formed, but escapes attention due to the frenzied flow of information and reports from the battlefields.

On March 22, speaking to business representatives, US President Joe Biden said:

"I believe, in the world economy — not just the world economy, in the world.  It occurs every three or four generations. As one of — as one of the top military people said to me in a secure meeting the other day, 60 — 60 million people died between 1900 and 1946.  And since then, we’ve established a liberal world order, and that hadn’t happened in a long while.

A lot of people dying, but nowhere near the chaos. And now is a time when things are shifting.  We’re going to — there’s going to be a new world order out there, and we’ve got to lead it.  And we’ve got to unite the rest of the free world in doing it."

Thus, the US president recognises that the old liberal world order that emerged after World War II and the collapse of the USSR is fading into oblivion. Biden hopes that the US will lead the "new world order". However, this requires resources and strength. This is exactly what the Western countries no longer have.

By imposing unprecedented sanctions on Russia, the West has dealt a blow to its own economy. The urgent search for alternative suppliers of hydrocarbons for Europe around the world, carried out in January 2022, was not crowned with success. The United States itself has to negotiate with the Venezuelan leadership on oil supplies, although most recently the Americans declared this regime dictatorial and imposed sanctions.

The Western countries themselves cut down the centuries-old branch on which their ideology was built - the inviolability of private property. Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves held abroad were frozen. The property of business representatives who were somehow connected with the Russian leadership was seized without trial.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin explained: "The collective West has actually drawn a line under the reliability of its currencies. And now everyone in the world knows that obligations in dollars and euros may not be fulfilled." Therefore, it was decided to transfer the payment for Russian natural gas supplied to "unfriendly countries" to Russian rubles as soon as possible.

If someone underestimates such a decision of the Russian president, then they are deeply mistaken, in fact, this is a declaration of sovereignty in Russia's monetary policy, which experts have been writing about for so long. In addition, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that negotiations are underway between Saudi Arabia and China over the sale of oil for yuan, which will be a "potentially significant loss" for the dollar as the world's main currency.

We should also take into account the situation on the financial markets. In fact, this mechanism for redistributing financial flows by trading futures, rather than real goods, is already breathing its last breath. In early March, the London Non-Ferrous Metals Exchange was forced to suspend trading in nickel futures due to a sharp rise in prices. This was done to save Tsingshan Holding Group, which was facing the prospect of a giant margin call (lack of funds to close trading positions) in the amount of $8 billion. Also such an "invisible hand of the market".

The exchange suspended operations and retroactively canceled transactions worth $3.9 billion, which naturally undermined the confidence of players, since the Chinese firm's playing along was obvious to everyone. The Western liberal myth of the "free market" is simply evaporating. It turns out that it was a market only for its own people or by its own rules.

Thus, the global economy, which is still built on hydrocarbons, and the financial system as a whole, are undergoing enormous changes that will necessarily affect the balance of global players and clearly not in favour of the energy-deficient countries of the West.

If in the 90s the United States could threaten oil-producing countries with the use of force, now they are not able to do this. In early March, the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates simply refused to talk on the phone with the American president about increasing oil production.

The EU and the US are no longer a privileged market for hydrocarbons and cannot dictate their terms, as the gas crisis of 2021 showed, Asian countries are ready to offer more favourable prices for suppliers. The world has already changed in this regard.

The ill-fated Ukraine clearly showed the followers of the liberal world order that if you are not in the elected members of NATO, then the ideological path of "liberal democracy" is your own choice, and no one will bear the costs along the way, much less die for you. It is unlikely that there will be anyone willing to repeat its path. And in general, against the background of current and future tectonic shifts in the world order, Russia's special operation in Ukraine will look like the first episode of global changes in the first third of the 21st century, which will undoubtedly be followed by others.

The American president's dreams of leading the united world of the "new world order" will no longer come true. China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and African countries have not joined the sanctions against Russia. It is precisely such solvent countries that will form the basis of the new world order. Countries that are able to pay for their needs with real goods, resources, services and technologies, and not just a "green paper on trust".

The latest attempt by the United States to win over China on the issue of Ukraine is characteristic. The Americans really expected that for the Chinese, their bilateral relations were more important than China's public neutrality on the situation in Ukraine. The American publication Politico pointed out that it seems that this attempt had the opposite effect, and China doubled down on its coordination with Russia in the confrontation with the United States over the American position on Taiwan.

The situation in the world has reached such a level that Chinese diplomats are moving away from the usual politeness. Commenting on the statement of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that any support of Russia contributes to the war against Ukraine, and entails death, suffering and a huge amount of destruction, a spokesman for the Chinese mission to the EU said:

"We have taken note of relevant remarks. Chinese people can fully relate to the pains and sufferings of other countries because we will never forget who had bombed our embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. We need no lecture on justice from the abuser of international law.

As a Cold War remnant and the world’s largest military alliance, NATO continues to expand its geographical scope and range of operations. What kind of role it has played in world peace and stability? NATO needs to have good reflection."

India unexpectedly canceled the visit of the British delegation led by Speaker of the House of Commons Lindsay Hoyle. According to the Guardian newspaper, the day prior the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, during a telephone conversation with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, tried to persuade him to "take a tougher stance towards Russia", but India did not join the anti-Russian actions.

Right now, the ethical foundations of Western civilisation are crumbling. Freedom of speech, tolerance, are discredited by rabid Russophobia, even the Hypocratic oath does not deter a "civilised" person at all.

As the Russian president correctly pointed out, the myth of the "golden billion" is collapsing. Now the leaders of European countries will not be able to provide citizens with the former standard of living. French President Emmanuel Macron said: "We will face a global food crisis. I will introduce food checks to help the most needy households and the middle class so that they can cope with higher prices."

If the race for sugar in Russian stores is only a temporary rush, which is mostly over, then the fight for sunflower oil in a French, Spanish or German store has a rational explanation, since the main import of sunflower seeds came from Ukraine. Sowing there is under threat, therefore, sunflower oil is becoming a real shortage.

The German Agriculture Minister explained that the state cannot bear all the costs: "Our state measures that we are currently taking cannot eliminate, at best mitigate, the consequences of sanctions”, and therefore he suggested eating less meat.

US President Joe Biden also does not hesitate to say that life will get worse: "As for the food shortage, it will be real. The price of sanctions falls not only on Russia, but also on a huge number of countries, including European countries and our country." Bloomberg already proposes that Americans save money by selling a car, switching to plant-based food, buying only in bulk, and getting rid of pets.

The EEF, UN and WTO all warn of impending famine and chaos in the world. For example, in Sri Lanka, protests are already taking place because of rising prices for food, medicine and fuel, and in Spain because of the rise in the price of energy resources. It is not hard to guess that the next step after the global pandemic, to intimidate and control the population, will be hunger and energy scarcity.

Only on February 24, Russia emerged from this global trend and such prospects do not threaten its population. The Russian Special Representative for Global Sustainable Development resigned of his own accord, and no replacement has been announced. However, of course, there are still many challenges ahead. But by playing by its own rules, Russia is shaping the new world order itself. Once again, as at the beginning of the 20th century, Russia is doing the previously unthinkable in the existing paradigm.

If we draw an analogy with the famous quote of Archimedes: "Give me a foothold, and I will turn the world around", then Russia is now turning the whole world around through Ukraine, and the "new world order" will inevitably proceed from our Russian interests.