India signals limited US capabilities in Asia

In May of this year, US President Joe Biden made an Asian tour. According to Politico magazine, one of the main goals of the trip was to change the trajectory of India's movement in a pro-Western direction. However, the results of this trip, in particular, the doubling of India's purchase of Russian oil over the past two months, show that the United States is unable to seriously change Delhi's foreign policy, since American ideological constructs do not compete with the real interests of this country.

In the United States, no one hid the fact that the American president is going on a tour to enlist support for his strategy of countering China in the Indo-Pacific region and announce the creation of the Indo-Pacific Economic Union. At the same time, Politico magazine pointed out that the White House wants to use the inflated international concern about the Russian special operation in Ukraine to wrest India from its long-standing and close relations with Moscow.

Even before this trip, a Japanese publication outlined why India maintains a neutral status and does not impose sanctions on Russia, as its QUAD allies - the United States, Australia and Japan - did.

The main reason is that India cannot afford to attack Russia, as this may push Russia to finally choose China's position in the Indo-Chinese territorial conflict. India also buys weapons from many countries, but according to experts, 70% of the current weapons of the Indian army are Russian-made equipment, which keeps India dependent on Russia for its maintenance and supply of spare parts.

In addition, the Japanese agency notes the difference in approaches to geopolitics. Western countries believe that it is in their interests to protect the US-led order, and India sees a better chance in a multipolar world in which several major powers will be on an equal footing.

In my opinion, the hypocrisy of the United States towards India should also be noted. Announcing Biden's visit to Asia, adviser to the American President Jack Sullivan said: “The message we are trying to send on this trip is a message of a positive vision of what the world might look like if the world's democracies and open societies come together to shape the rules of the road, define the region's security architecture, and strengthen strong, powerful historical alliances.”

At the same time, two weeks later, the US State Department report on international religious freedom for 2021, which was announced by the head of the State Department, Antony Blinken, classified India as a country of particular concern in the category of countries with the worst indicators of religious freedom and where there is an increase in attacks on places of worship.

Directly in India itself, the media notes that with the start of Russia's special operation in Ukraine, our country's influence in the region has decreased, which, in principle, is natural due to the concentration of military and diplomatic efforts on this conflict. However, this has led to the strengthening of China's role in the region. The West, led by the United States, has also shifted its focus to Ukraine, making huge injections of money and weapons there, which again frees China's hands in the region, Indian experts say.

During the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India in December 2021, decisions were made on a number of joint initiatives on Central Asia and Afghanistan, now their prospects are vague, and Pakistan and China are strengthening their positions there.

"The main dilemma for India today is not whether to continue cooperation with Russia or not. Further cooperation in the near and medium term is beyond doubt. However, because of the Russian operation, New Delhi has new reasons for concern and reflection,” The Hindu newspaper sums up.

India also fears that China could take advantage of the distraction of the world community's attention to Ukraine and exacerbate the situation on the Line of Actual Control, a territorial dispute between India and China. Then India will have to turn to the US and the West for help. However, this is clearly not in the interests of Russia..

Therefore, India hopes that Moscow will exert diplomatic influence on Beijing, because it is extremely important for it that its allies do not quarrel with each other in such a difficult international situation. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to attend the BRICS virtual summit on June 24, along with the presidents of Russia and China.

It is in this geopolitical situation that the 2nd QUAD summit was held for India. The Hindu noted that despite initial statements about support for Ukraine by the leaders of the United States and Japan, the final joint statement did not mention Russia and Ukraine at all. The publication writes that India emphasises the importance of QUAD, but at the same time "keeps the balance" - participating in a meeting of SCO officials on combating terrorism two days before the summit.

Although China was not mentioned in the joint statement, reference was made to QUAD's opposition to coercive and unilateral measures that “seek to change the status quo and increase tensions in the area, the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels, and efforts to disrupt the exploitation of other countries' marine resources.”

However, Biden's announcement that the US would go to war over Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion blew up the information space, and "damage mitigation" with denials from the US State Department did not save the situation much, as Beijing's diplomatic response was very quick.

At the Tokyo summit, QUAD leaders announced the creation of the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). The initiative will monitor the situation at their maritime borders, which will strengthen the capacity of partners to respond to climate and humanitarian emergencies and "maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region". China also understands that this partnership is directed against it.

The May 23 announcement of the 13-nation Indo-Pacific Economic Initiative (IPEF) is being touted as a significant step by the US as part of its decade-long “pivot to Asia” and an attempt to give some "economic weight” to its presence in the Indo-Pacific region, which has been shrinking since Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership" (CPTPP) in 2017.

However, as The Hindu notes, this only signals the readiness of the 13 countries to start discussing the contours of the union, whose main priorities are declared: clean energy, decarbonisation, taxation and the fight against corruption. At the same time, US officials have made it clear that this is not a free trade agreement, and reducing trade duties or expanding market access will not be discussed.

India notes that against the background of funding for Ukraine over the past 3 months only from the United States for $54 billion, the planned $50 billion for five years for the infrastructure of all four QUAD countries seems insignificant.

At the same time, according to Bloomberg, the US is preparing a military aid package for India to deepen security ties and reduce the country's dependence on Russian weapons. The source said the funding of up to $500 million would make India one of the biggest recipients of US aid after Israel and Egypt.

The publication War on the Rocks, known for its insiders in the American military-industrial complex, reported that the United States plans to speed up the process of approving export controls for Indian cooperation, in fact, to use the status of India's main defence partner for the export of dual-use technologies. It is even planned to create a common complex of production lines similar to the production of M1A1 Abrams tanks in Egypt. Thus, India will be drawn more deeply into the orbit of US influence.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported in late May that the US had become India's top trading partner, surpassing longtime leader China to $115 billion. According to various estimates, Indian exports to the US jumped by 47.4% in 2021, while imports rose by 50%. However, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman denied the report, explaining that "the disparity in trade figures published by China and India is the result of different statistical measurement scales."

In part, all this is due to an attempt to replace some Chinese goods in India internally, after the aggravation of the border conflict between these countries in 2020. However, this was before the global energy crisis unfolded. Now all countries in the region have priority over energy resources, and the main task is to maintain an acceptable standard of living for their population, without allowing the threat of famine. The aggravation of the situation in Iran and Pakistan is a vivid example of the need to set the right priorities for the country's leadership.

Therefore, it is not at all surprising that India has increased oil purchases from Russia several times. In addition, taking advantage of European sanctions against Russia and the fact that large oil refineries can work with Russian oil, making diesel fuel from it, India can already export diesel fuel to Europe, writes the New York Times. The Indian company ONGS intends to buy out Shell's share in the “Sakhalin 2” project and ExxonMobil's shares in the “Sakhalin 1” project due to the withdrawal of these firms from Russia.

The United States cannot do anything about it, because unlike Turkey, which was sanctioned for buying S-400 air defence systems, India was not sanctioned for a similar deal. The introduction of even secondary sanctions against India for buying Russian oil is very unlikely, since the United States cannot offer India any strategic economic benefits from their alliance.

The same Japan, which the United States wants to see in the AUKUS military alliance, is not going to withdraw from the Russian “Sakhalin 2” project, even if it is told to do so, said Kōichi Hagiuda, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry. This is because in the current situation, the United States is not able to provide its allies with energy resources or at least guarantee the preservation of their current levels.

The US itself is in an energy crisis, with gasoline prices breaking new records. The situation is similar with fertilisers.

India received over 180,000 tons of fertilisers from Russia in May. Moreover, this transaction was carried out in rubles and rupees – the national currencies of the two countries, the Times of India newspaper writes. The Indian government has assured its farmers that there will be no shortage of fertilisers during the season, and they will not face any additional financial burden, despite the external environment. The United States cannot be an alternative in this vital area either.

It seems that apart from ideological mantras about democracy, there is practically nothing left in the US arsenal. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian noted that the United States spent $0.15 billion on economic cooperation with 10 ASEAN countries, and $54 billion on the war in Ukraine.

The time of broad opportunities for the US in Asia has passed. This is clearly seen in the example given by the Chinese agency of Global Times, pointing out the level of cooperation between China and countries in the South Pacific. Cooperation includes economic, infrastructure, climate change, health and security issues. The fact is that China is able to really influence the increase in the standard of living of the inhabitants of these countries, and has already done so by sending humanitarian aid, including vaccines, during the coronavirus pandemic. The US did none of this.

An important factor in determining India's foreign policy vector is the political situation in the United States itself. No one can guarantee that the next US president, probably from the Republican Party, will not curtail some of the initiatives of the previous owner of the White House, as was already the case with the "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” and will not start "tariff wars".

India really needs allies against China, as it is not yet able to solve bilateral problems with it through diplomatic means. Russia's special military operation in Ukraine has upset the balance of relations in the Russia-China-India triangle, but the Indian side, clearly aware of its interests, is trying to maintain a balance, not wanting to go on the path of confrontation with Russia, to which it is being pushed by Western "partners".

Strategically, India looks forward to the formation of a new international order, where developing countries like it will be assigned a place not as a partner subordinate to the will of the United States, but as a player promoting their own interests, and the unfolding global storm of energy crisis shows that the West is not an ally that can be relied on in all respects.