The US elites are becoming aware of the inevitability of war with China
The answer to the question posed back in June 2020 by the RUSSTRAT Institute – whether the US intends to fight China, and if so, why (see the Institute's report “Assessment of the likelihood and practical forms of an armed conflict between the US and China”), has in recent days received additional confirmation.
If earlier it was a question of interpreting the results of the analysis of the dynamics of the general development of events, now American experts spoke at once as observers assessing the process that is taking place literally before their eyes.
Thus, senior adviser to the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, former high-ranking diplomat and Pentagon employee, and translator Chas Freeman, in his article, bluntly says that the door to a peaceful scenario has finally slammed shut.
Michael Beckley, Associate Professor of Political Science at Taft University, and Hal Brands, Honorary Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, generally point out that there is war. Except they regret that America will have to join it.
American social psychology has a strong messianic dimension. They are always good, no matter what they do, and they always save the world, therefore they are forced to intervene in other people’s quarrels. That’s right – they are forced to, for the sake of saving people’s lives and the principles of freedom. The fact that they themselves kindle these quarrels for their own purposes gently moves behind the nearest curtain.
In their opinion, war is inevitable due to the determined attitude of mainland China to return rebellious Taiwan under its rule. Washington formally has grounds to put the question this way. The island is indeed a poignant internal political moment in inter-Chinese relations. Moreover, extremely principled.
Indeed, China has long sought a peaceful solution and, it must be admitted, has succeeded quite well in this matter. Half of the Taiwanese economy, especially in the high-tech area of microchips, is locked into mainland China. Taking into account the difference in the weight categories of the two countries’ finances, it seemed obvious that in another 10 to 15 years Taiwan would be completely locked onto the Chinese economy, which would become the starting point of its gradual political integration “in accordance with the Hong Kong scenario”.
But this result frankly does not suit the US. So much so that America is trying with all its might to exacerbate the problem so that Beijing has no other option but the annexation of Taiwan by force. No, the pages of the media, American experts, of course, very, very regret that in the end American lads will again have to get into someone else’s war and stop the aggressor, but at the same time they are convinced that America, as always, is able to succeed.
Although in reality the situation is, to put it mildly, far from so unambiguous.
On the one hand, a direct war between the US and China is indeed inevitable. America’s goal in it is to replace the Chinese government with an obviously pro-American one. First of all, in the issue of free admission of American financial capital into the domestic economy of the country.
The goal is achievable in only two ways: the complete occupation of mainland China after its total military defeat, or the change of the ruling elite to a “more correct” one as a result of the major military defeat of the Chinese army somewhere in a third country.
There was also a third option – through a colour revolution, but the Communist Party of China reliably and unconditionally rolled tanks into the asphalt on Tiananmen Square back in 1989, and then through the suppression of the spread of the coronavirus pandemic in the country.
However, one cannot count on the success of the direct invasion of the US army directly into China either. The Pentagon is sorely lacking resources for an operation of this scale, from people and equipment to rear bases and warehouse stocks of consumables.
And so it turns out that for the US the “Taiwanese” variant remains the only suitable “battlefield”. The only problem is that, based on the dynamics of the growth of the People’s Liberation Army’s military power, after 2028 the American army will not be able to defeat the Chinese army even in a local theatre of operations in Taiwan. RAND analysts already admitted this. Even taking into account the factor of the “Finnish war”.
The Pentagon cannot attack right now either. The American nation is not ready for such a war. However, judging by the sharp increase in the rate and volume of publications about the inevitability of the military option, the process of preparing society has already begun. It will take at least three to four years.
One cannot ignore such a serious factor as the personal enmity between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping – during the electoral campaign, Biden spoke about the head of the Communist Party of China and China several times in a boorish manner, which did not go unnoticed by the Chinese side.