Washington allowed Germany to absorb Poland and part of Ukraine

After US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the signing of a "Joint statement in Support of Ukraine, European Energy Security and our Climate Goals" in Washington on July 15, it became clear that big changes are brewing in Europe.

The matter was not so much about the fact that the Washington declaration stated the Biden administration's refusal to oppose the Nord Stream 2 project, as about  the designated geopolitical changes that affected not only US-German relations, but also Russia, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the post-Soviet space.

Washington and Berlin have been setting a global trend for decades. One of the key points of the Joint Statement reads: "As part of the U.S.-Germany Climate and Energy Partnership, we have decided to establish a pillar to support the energy transitions in emerging economies. This pillar will include a focus on supporting Ukraine and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. These efforts will not only contribute to the fight against climate change but will support European energy security by reducing demand for Russian energy”.

At first glance, Kiev got what it wanted. Berlin and Washington mentioned it, making it one of the items on the German-American agenda and promising investments in the Ukrainian economy. But what really happened?

According to the Polish expert Andrzej Szczęśniak, Ukraine, and at the same time Poland, was given a Trojan horse. After all, the United States and Germany have announced the implementation of a climate strategy, which involves "persuading" other countries to take on climate commitments, the implementation of which will be monitored by Berlin and Washington.

"This policy requires the use of a number of the most advanced and, consequently, expensive technologies," the Polish expert notes. ”Thus, under the guise of compensation for the refusal to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2, Ukraine and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe were offered a ‘green expansion’, that is, the adaptation of their territory for the production of renewable energy.

For our countries, this is a classic example of a double-losing game: there will be no cheap gas from Russia, no income from transit, no own energy generated by coal-fired power plants or nuclear power plants. And we will have to pay dearly for ‘green energy’."

In other words, the United States gave Germany a sanction to bankrupt both Ukraine and Poland by forcing them into a new "energy-efficient" economy. In the case of Kiev, this will be very easy to do. Ukrainian ministers will just start running for instructions not to the American embassy, but to the German one.

Berlin will have to tinker around with Warsaw. The Polish economy is much more powerful than the Ukrainian one, not to mention the self-consciousness of the Polish ruling class led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), which challenges its colleagues from Germany on a wide range of issues.

In Poland, they are well aware of what the threat of "green energy" from Berlin puts them at risk of. Polish analyst Piotr Maciążek recalls that in 2020, inflation in Poland was the highest in the entire European Union. However, the worst is yet to come.

"A record increase in prices for heat and energy is expected, which will especially affect the poorest Poles, and it's precisely these people who make up the electoral base of the current government," Maciążek emphasises. Following the goals laid down in the climate strategy of the German-American alliance will simply ruin Poland and make it the same protectorate territory as the current Ukraine.

Berlin is already preparing for changes. Having received a label on the management of Europe from the Americans, Germany believes that it may also not be interested in developing contact with Russia, as it was during the reign of Donald Trump.

As the well-known German expert Alexander Rahr points out, no party in Germany is in favour of improving relations with Russia in the current parliamentary election race, although, according to opinion polls, about two-thirds of Germans are in favour of normalising relations and for cooperation. Moreover, in the "Alternative for Germany" and “Die Linke” parties, which are considered the most sympathetic to Moscow, a "purging" of pro-Russian politicians is ongoing.

In this situation, the question of the system of balances and counterbalances in Europe may arise. For Poland, this means that it will have to reconsider its previous anti-Russian (and anti-Belarusian) policy in order to preserve itself. Warsaw needs to think about who can help it to preserve its energy independence.

In fact, only Russia can act as such a guarantor, but only in the event that Warsaw opts for the conclusion of a new long-term contract for the supply of Russian gas after the expiration of the previous one in 2022, and also decides to invest in the completion of the Baltic nuclear power plant and the creation of an "energy bridge" between the Kaliningrad region and the Polish regions.

In its turn, the Polish platform may be beneficial to Moscow from the point of view of countering German expansion in the post-Soviet space and the creation of outposts by Germany in Ukraine and the Baltic states in conditions when the United States will abandon this region.