"Erdogan's equation": Russia has found arguments to stop the Turkish invasion of Syria

Telephone conversations first between Putin and Erdogan, then Shoigu with his colleague Akar, Lavrov's visit to Ankara — and now Turkey is stopping preparations for military operations in northern Syria. Although a little earlier she ignored a similar demand from the United States.

Did we outplay the Americans? Has Russia made an offer that Turkey could not refuse? Everything is more complicated.

Ankara calls the purpose of its actions "the elimination of disagreements with Moscow and Washington on the Kurdish issue." Cavusoglu: "We expect that both the United States and Russia will fulfil the agreements on clearing these regions [in northern Syria] from [Kurdish] terrorists."

According to this scheme, it turns out that Erdogan was trying to act as an intermediary between the Russians and the Americans this time. While Turkey itself, they say, has no geopolitical tasks in Syria.

Plus, there was information planted in the Western media that "because of the Ukrainian crisis" Russia was allegedly reducing its military presence in the Syrian Arab Republic. And Ankara's declared 50,000 troops intended for the invasion of Syria were explained by its desire to "fill the vacuum after the Russians."

This is how the "Erdogan equation" was built: the influence of the United States weakens, Russia suddenly leaves, and a new reality comes calling for action. Especially when you really want to prevent Iran from strengthening there.

But now it turns out that such judgments were far-fetched. Moscow, stating its understanding of the reasons for Ankara's security concerns and acting as a balancing force, restricted the cross-border activities of the Syrian Kurds by moving its military units in northern Syria. Tehran also behaved cautiously.

As a result, Turkey, which "had everything ready for the invasion”, decides to stop the operation at the last moment. Without much explanation, but with a lot of "variables" involved: from bargaining with NATO to "Ukrainian grain" — helping to solve the equation.

The Middle East is not just a delicate matter. Here you need to act filigree, like Russia. Neither the German "gingerbread and whip" nor the Anglo-Saxon "carrot and stick" are simply not suitable here.

Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute