The collapse of the OSCE Minsk Group will complicate the situation in Transcaucasia

At a meeting in Moscow with his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced the collapse of the OSCE Minsk Group (OSCE Minsk Group) on the Karabakh settlement.

"The fact that the troika of co-chairs ceased to exist was declared by the French and Americans themselves," Larov said. “For me, this is a fact. I do not know in what words they put their statement, but the fact that they sacrificed the fate of the region to their Russophobic tasks, at least the role that the troika could play in the fate of the region, is a fact. And they have set their priorities quite clearly."

The collapse of the OSCE Minsk Group format is an act of big politics. Therefore, the Lavrov-Mirzoyan meeting became a kind of "reconciliation of the hours" before the negotiations at the highest level. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is due to pay an official visit to Moscow. The parties intend to discuss the implementation of the agreements reached on Nagorno-Karabakh. The only question is what kind of agreements will be discussed. Those that were achieved during the trilateral Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue or those that were achieved in Brussels at the summit of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia with the mediation of the EU?

After the second Karabakh war, the OSCE Minsk Group found itself in crisis because it failed to prevent the second Karabakh war. Long before the Ukrainian crisis, crisis phenomena began to be seen in it, as was stated by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. But one of the co-chairs, Russia, is in the region as a leading player. Its peacekeepers are located in Nagorno-Karabakh, and France and the United States were out of this process for various reasons.

Nevertheless, on the eve of the Brussels meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan, in a telephone conversation with them, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke about the importance of "ensuring the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship in order to de-escalate and resume diplomacy”. There was also a visit to the region by the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, during which the issue of restoring the OSCE Minsk Group format was discussed.

It means that the collapse of the group took place literally on the eve of the Aliyev-Pashinyan Brussels summit and the parties became aware of this in advance. The specific reasons remain unknown. As a result, along with the so-called Moscow platform with the participation of Russia-Azerbaijan and Armenia on a post-conflict settlement in the region, another one was formed: direct negotiations mediated by Brussels. The intrigue now is whether the Moscow and Brussels platforms will intersect or whether events on them will develop further according to independent scenarios.

Now we will outline the remaining Moscow "baggage": the trilateral agreements at the highest level of November 9, 2020, January 11 and November 26, 2021, including the activities of the Trilateral Working Group on unblocking economic and transport ties, efforts to launch a Commission on the Delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the preparation of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Brussels package: to create a commission on the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border by the end of April. It should be noted that an agreement in principle on this was reached in Sochi back in November last 2021. The next meeting of the trilateral working group on unblocking the region is to be held this month. Hence the question: so who exactly will continue to lead the designated directions - Moscow or Brussels?

In the "dry residue" we get the following. The OSCE Minsk Group, which played an important role in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, especially after Russia, France and the United States became its permanent co-chairs in mid-February 1997, no longer exists. The confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine has begun to make its own adjustments to the quality and course of negotiations.

Aliyev, who declared that the work of the group had lost relevance after the second Karabakh war, achieved his goal. He removed from the political horizon the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was on the agenda of the OSCE Minsk Group. In the final statement on the Brussels Aliyev-Pashinyan summit, there is no mention of "Nagorno-Karabakh" at all. Earlier, Pashinyan said that "the issue of the final status of Karabakh" should be discussed within the framework of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan," he called for help from the troika of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. In Brussels, the group was forgotten. And not only about her.

"I drew attention to the fact that in the EU communique following the meeting in Brussels, Russia was never mentioned anywhere," Lavrov said. "This suggests that it is more important for the EU leadership to develop what has been achieved or to use the Karabakh issue in order to be celebrated along its Russophobic line."

The statement by the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, does not mention the trilateral agreements reached through the mediation of Russia, which indicates the EU's intention to reduce Russia's role in the mediation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And if before the Ukrainian crisis, the moderation of Brussels and Moscow was not considered as a competition between two diplomatic projects, today the situation is seriously changing.

If the EU's concept of Russia as a "weakening giant" is further developed, then the role of Brussels on the Transcaucasian track will increase. Moreover, one of the centres of power - Azerbaijan - is beginning to occupy a dominant position due to its availability of energy resources, transport, corridor capabilities, etc. Yerevan will be put before a geopolitical choice.

It may also happen that Transcaucasia will cease to be a strategic periphery, and the situation in this region will be used by the West as a tool to prevent its breakthrough in the south, in particular, towards Iran and Turkey. In general, the current status quo in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone is not stable and we need to be prepared for the most unexpected scenarios.