Lukashenko's "big conversation" with himself

The press conference duration record set by the President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko - 8 hours and 15 minutes - was not accidental. Everything was significant here - from the scenery of the event (Independence Palace in Minsk) to the duration of the event - longer than the Putin and Biden ones. Only the huge giant Fidel Castro is ahead.

The date was also significant - exactly a year ago, a presidential election was held in Belarus, after which mass protests, which were severely suppressed by the security forces and gave rise to the delegitimisation of Lukashenko as president and sanctions from the West, began.

The "alternative president" of Belarus, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, travels around the world and has held more meetings with Western presidents in a year than Lukashenko had during the entire 27-year period of his stay in power, and the nationalist opposition, created not without the help of Lukashenko, his administration and the Foreign Ministry, for the first time in the last 10 years came out of his shadow and demanded that he resign.

Why did Lukashenko organise a press conference? He wanted to show the world that he managed to repel all attacks this year, that his power is strong as before, and he is in great shape and ready to defend himself as much as possible and even go on the offensive, that the Belarusian project named after Lukashenko is alive, will live, and all those who hope otherwise will be disgraced.

There was information in the Telegram community that Lukashenko allegedly tried to enter into negotiations with Western diplomats through the apparatus of V. Makei two weeks before the press conference, promising them everything they would like to see: de-Russification, withdrawal from the Union State, joint exercises with NATO, the introduction of nationalists into power, the use of Belarus to send agents of Western intelligence agencies into Russia, and so on, and Russia knew about it. In return, Lukashenko asked for only one thing – the lifting of sanctions and a return to negotiations.

But the West ignored Makei's people with their requests, Lukashenkо did not believe him, considering him weak, and did not destroy the created institution of the "alternative president" Tikhanovskaya. Moreover, Biden met with her, and on the day of his speech, the United States and Britain introduced a new package of sanctions. For this reason, the tone of Lukashenko's speech towards the West was aggrieved and emphatically rude.

In the context of the development of the Belarusian authorities' crisis, it is not so important to what extent the information about the latest attempts of Lukashenkо to negotiate with the West at the price of new refusals from agreements with Russia is reliable. But the fact remains that Lukashenko has repeatedly violated all agreements with Moscow, and therefore a new attempt does not add anything new to the picture of what is happening.

The content of Lukashenko's speech and its tone are already known – it was a kind of report highlighting the position of Lukashenko on all issues, important for him.

He showed that he has an even and stable relationship with V. Putin – this is to annoy the West, he leaked information about Poroshenko – to take revenge on Ukraine, spoke disparagingly about Merkel and Hollande – to show his own importance, and even was rude to a journalist from Britain – to get revenge on London and please the Russian audience. Lukashenko did not utter a single word without the intention to show his firmness and stability.

But first of all, Lukashenko made it clear by all means: it is not necessary to assess his position as weak one and therefore hope for his willingness to make concessions on integration with Russia. Under Lukashenko, Belarus considers as the most important thing the maintaining of the previous course on multi-vector development and will fight for it with all its might to the last.

At the same time, Lukashenkо made it clear that this was agreed with Moscow, and there was no conflict of interests here.

As for Crimea, Lukashenkо has clearly shown that there is no consolidated position among the business elite in Russia itself. State-owned banks and state-owned transport companies do not work in Crimea, fearing sanctions. The same applies to mobile operators. Even the Crimean sports federations are not allowed to participate in the Russian championships. And Lukashenkо is ironic about this, saying that when the last Russian oligarch comes to Crimea, then it will be possible to put such a question to Belarus. That is, Lukashenkо has put himself not on the level of the president of the allied power, but on the level of a businessman.

Naturally, he also made it clear that it is not worth trying to put him in a hopeless situation for the sake of forcing him to political integration: he will never opt for it and will not sacrifice his freedom of hands. This is a completely rational position from his point of view, but it also shows how Lukashenkо sees integration – only as concessions from Russia and a cheap gas price.  

In fact, no harsh statements by Lukashenkо should be understood as a break with the West. Merkel is already a "lame duck", and Hollande and Poroshenko are not presidents at all. Hints to Zelensky about the possibility of stopping the supply of petroleum, fuel and lubricants are just words. Lukashenko has not committed any real actions that harm Ukraine, Germany, France, the United States, Biden, Macron and Putin, and he cannot – the weight categories are too different.

This makes it possible for Makei, under the thunder of Lukashenko's rhetoric, to continue trying to negotiate with the West from a position of strength, that is, showing his invulnerability to Western sanctions.

Fear is clearly visible in the scenario of Lukashenko's monologue.

The emphasised desire to show how long he is able to stay on the podium, what good shape he is in, how he manages the apparatus, how he is not afraid of anyone and how he eliminates last year's threats – such an ostentatious aggressiveness, playing to the crowd, being the reverse side of fear. A calm and confident politician would not behave like this, and even more so they will not verbally offend everyone in a row, turning the speech of the leader of the state into a bazaar inter-party.

But eight hours on the podium is already a well-thought-out tactic. "Don't expect me to fail!" – that's what Lukashenko should have said and left instead of an eight-hour speech. It would be a sign of strength and courage. But he was saying "Don't expect me to fail!" for more than eight hours, and this is a clear overkill and an attempt to magic away one’s own fears. Any novice psychologist knows this. The heads of state, to whom this demonstration of strength was intended, could not fail to notice this.

The Belarusian elite understood Lukashenko not at all in the way he wanted it. Instead of a powerful politician, a person who is afraid of everything and can do nothing appeared before those sitting in the hall (the tongue doesn’t dare to call those present a political elite). It became clear to everyone that the system was not under control. Standing for a day and holding out for a night is not a strategy. It's not even a tactic. It is unclear what it is if we are talking about the state and the prospects for its development.

Lukashenko’s “big conversation” with the public turned out to be a conversation with himself: neither substance nor glimpses of a strategy were seen by those present. Only a stream of consciousness that tried to touch anyone who just got into its swirls.

By such behaviour, Lukashenko further cuts off the possibility of compromise for himself. He rushes between requests and threats. And this is the main proof of his position of weakness. And if Lukashenko wanted to prove that it is necessary to change the tactics of communication with him, then he proved the opposite.

Everyone who has a strategy for Belarus has become convinced that it should not be changed.

Nothing will change for Lukashenko. All trends will continue, and in this sense, the "Big Conversation" has not achieved its goal. The situation of Lukashenko is hopeless, and the steady downward trend will continue. This can be changed not by rhetoric, but by politics and actions. But it is precisely for this, as the events of the last year show, that Lukashenko is not ready.

Any politician sooner or later comes to the end of their career, and only outstanding people can do it beautifully and properly. And not only for themselves but also for the country. Lukashenko does not have much time left, and what final choice he will make for himself is a big question. Although it is so clear – everything could have been completely different.