Who will be able to solve the Karabakh riddle and when

    Aliyev said that if Yerevan does not accept the five principles proposed by Baku, the territorial integrity of Armenia will not be recognised
    access_time12 May 2022
    print 12 5 2022
     

    Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said that he had conveyed proposals on the composition of the border delimitation commission to Armenia. At the same time, he referred to "one of the agreements reached following the meeting in Brussels on April 6 with the participation of the President of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of Armenia and the Chairman of the Council of the European Union on the establishment of a commission on the delimitation of borders."

    It was planned to hold the first meeting of the commission before the end of April, but it did not take place. There is also no clarity about who will be in charge of this issue. Moscow, judging by the final statement on the results of recent talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, or the head of the European Council Charles Michel. This is of fundamental importance, since Michel previously linked his mediation efforts with the resumption of peace talks within the OSCE Minsk Group and the resolution of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    But the OSCE Minsk Group has collapsed, although the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been removed from the international agenda and in fact remains part of the processes of delimitation and subsequent demarcation of borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    Further. Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov assures that "peace talks will be held on the basis of Azerbaijan's proposals consisting of five points."

    This is mutual recognition by states of sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of their international borders and political independence of each other; mutual confirmation of the absence of territorial claims of states against each other and acceptance of a legal obligation that such a claim will not be brought in the future; refrain from threatening each other's security in interstate relations, the use of threats and force against political independence and territorial integrity, as well as other circumstances that do not correspond to the purposes of the UN Charter; delimitation and demarcation of the state border, establishment of diplomatic relations; opening of transport and communications, construction of other relevant communications and establishment of cooperation in other areas of mutual interest.

    In response, Armenia put up its own six points. Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan stated that Yerevan agrees with the principles put forward by Azerbaijan, but considered it necessary to add to them the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, ignored in the proposals from Baku. What to expect next in this scenario? Most likely, the negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be delayed.

    Aliyev said that if Yerevan does not accept the five principles proposed by Baku, the territorial integrity of Armenia will not be recognised. But Armenia can behave in the same way. There may also be a problem of maps in connection with the beginning of the process of delimitation and demarcation of borders between the two states. However, there is an important nuance: after the second Karabakh war, Yerevan talks more about the need to ensure the rights and security of Armenians living in Karabakh, and overshadows the status issue.

    At the same time, Azerbaijan is in a hurry, and Armenia is waiting. Why? Maybe Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili is right, who in his speech at the event on the occasion of Europe Day said that "the end of the war in Ukraine is of great importance for everyone, the future of the whole world, including Georgia, depends on the results of the war," that is, Transcaucasia as a whole.

    Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute

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