Ukraine is just the beginning: war has been a long time coming

Despite the fact that, of course, the main attention of the public, the media, experts and politicians is now occupied by a special military operation in Ukraine, as well as the sanctions war of the West against Russia and Moscow's retaliatory measures, it is still useful sometimes to look beyond the horizon of events and try to see what is hidden behind the uncertainty of the medium and long-term prospects.

1. The special military operation in Ukraine is not the end, but only the beginning of the restoration of Russia's position in Europe. The West abandoned Moscow in February 2014 by carrying out a coup and illegally removing the legitimate president of the country, Yanukovych, from power. We saved up our strength and after 8 years we repay the debt. Now the West knows that it is no longer possible to con us – there will be a war. Hence the hysteria: transnational corporations leave the Russian market, and bans on airline flights, and the seizure of Russian gold reserves and private property of oligarchs, and Meta's open neo-Nazism against the Russian nation, and everything else.

For further expansion (economic, commercial, and if necessary, military), we need this bridgehead with a 31-36 million Russian population and access to European borders. We add Belarus with 9 million people and get 40-45 million people in addition to the Russian core. Is it worth fighting just for this, not to mention the economy, geopolitics, etc.? Undoubtedly, yes.

It will take several years to settle the situation in the new state (Union of States). It is necessary for the elites to grow together again with interests, families, and capital, in order for a new economic mechanism to work, trade, economic and humanitarian ties to be restored, etc. After that, expansion will continue - did anyone cancel Russia's security demands for the United States and the rollback of the NATO bloc in Europe to the borders of 1997? No.

2. Will Russia seek to neutralise the effects of Western sanctions on its economy and population as quickly as possible? Absolutely, yes. But does this mean that we will let Western companies back on the old terms? No. Does this mean that we will lift our sanctions (oil, gas, wheat, corn, inert gases, palladium, etc.)? No. We will keep them as long as possible until Europe and the United States choose to fulfil our political demands. This leads to a number of political consequences for the Baltic states and Eastern Europe.

3. After the creation of the Union State of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus with the Baltic states as a factor of the game, everything becomes clear – it simply does not exist in fact. Taking into account the pace of the military-industrial complex in Ukraine, taking into account the absence of the Russian population in Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn, the Baltic states cease to exist as a military factor within 2-3 days. Should it then be taken into account in the military and other structures of the United States and NATO? No. In fact, this is a region given away without a fight.

4. Eastern Europe. Taking into account the wave of crisis that is now covering Europe, powerful transformations will take place in it, which, first and foremost, will affect:

a) the key ideological bloc of the modern West - "Euro-Atlantic solidarity", especially if Biden is replaced by Trump, and most likely he will be;

b) the NATO bloc, which, if Trump comes to the White House, will most likely be dissolved;

c) the current structure of the European Union itself – in the conditions of Russian sanctions, the rich countries of Old Europe will be forced to cancel European support programs for Eastern countries.

That, in fact, is how the conditions will be for the situation to return to 1997.

This work is for the next 10-15, or even 20 years. We must forget about the "peaceful coexistence of systems”. It was a swindle. Russia is an Empire. And the Empire, in order to maintain its status as an Empire, must fight. Not only on the fronts, but also in economics and politics.

At the same time, we must understand that China, seeing our expansion, will not sit idle. There will be no movement this year – there will be a CCP congress and the election of Xi Jinping for a third term. But after that, a headache will be added to the United States. A second front will open – China will politically absorb Taiwan without a war.

After the Russian and Chinese offensive, Pax Americana can be considered finished and the writing of a new Yalta can begin.