Negotiations in Vienna on the nuclear deal with Iran have come to a pause. Why?

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said that negotiations between the "six" (Russia, the United States, Great Britain, China, France and Germany) and Iran on the nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - JCPOA) have been suspended due to unnamed "external factors". Moreover, this was done in a situation when, according to all participants in the negotiation process, "the final text of the agreement is already ready”.

But when Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh

clarified that "no external factor will affect Tehran's will to move towards an agreement" and "the announced break in negotiations is intended to resolve the remaining issues and nuances of the final agreement”, the question arose: what is going on?

Initially, there was a statement made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: Moscow demands written guarantees from the United States that its cooperation with Iran will not be affected by sanctions imposed after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. Experts have identified this action as the main external factor that Borrell is talking about.

However, Russia's representative at the talks in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, rejected this version. He tweeted: "Opponents of the JCPOA in both the United States and Iran are spreading disinformation in unison (which is very touching), claiming that Russia dominated the negotiations in Vienna. It's flattering, but it's nonsense”. Nevertheless, for some time this intrigue was still unfolding, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said at a meeting with lawmakers that "we will not allow any external factor to influence our national interests at the talks in Vienna”.

And suddenly, after some time, the denouement came. The same Abdollahian, in a telephone conversation with Borrell, says that "the United States has recently been putting forward new excessive demands," which "creates obstacles to negotiations”. Unfortunately, the Iranian side does not make these demands public, although Tehran publications indicate that Washington refuses to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorists.

Abdollahian’s statement is quoted: "Some issues related to our national heroes are not subject to discussion." There are other demands that Tehran associates with the "internal American policy", but does not indicate them. At the same time, Iran does not associate its actions under the nuclear agreement with Iran in any way with the Ukrainian crisis, which, in its opinion, should be "solved by political means”.

Thus, the negotiation process in Vienna on the Iranian nuclear agreement acquires intrigue. Khatibzadeh clarifies that Tehran agrees with the need to take a pause in the negotiations, which "may become an impulse to resolve all remaining issues on the eve of a final return to negotiations”.

The dialogue in Vienna is going on in secrecy. Therefore, based on the "information leaks" allowed by the parties, it is difficult to reconstruct the course of events. So far, the following is in the dry balance. Negotiations have stopped. The Envoys hoped that they would be completed this week. Whose specific scenario is being implemented, it is difficult to judge, but there is one all the same.

Russia and Iran remain strong political and economic allies, although in theory Tehran and Washington can conclude a deal without Moscow, and an additional 2 million barrels of Iranian oil per day could immediately appear on the world market in an attempt to compensate for the shortage of hydrocarbons. But in a broad sense, Iran will not play a game against Russia, with which it has established trade, economic and military cooperation for years.

In a narrow sense, it should be remembered that the entire infrastructure in Europe is tuned to Russian oil, and not to light Iranian oil – this is a technological point that cannot be removed at once. Rebuilding old plants for a new type of oil requires time and the corresponding financial costs.

Therefore, at this stage, Tehran has no plans to replace Russian oil with its own. Moreover, the negotiations in Vienna stopped amid the aggravation of relations between the parties to the nuclear agreement - Russia and Western countries. By the way, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted the attempts of the Americans to negotiate with the Iranians, make peace and immediately sign all the documents.

Indeed, the representative of the US State Department, Ned Price, said that "we continue to believe that we are close to a possible agreement on the JCPOA," but "there is little time left for this," and tried to turn the arrows on Moscow, stating that "new sanctions against Russia have nothing to do with the JCPOA”.

According to the Politico, citing an unnamed senior Western source familiar with the situation, the United States is still trying to negotiate behind the scenes with Iran without Russia's participation.

Experts believe that such information appeared in the press for a reason. Washington now needs to conclude a nuclear agreement and it is likely that in the coming days or weeks they will offer Iran concessions that are "difficult to refuse." Theoretically, this is possible.

In addition, the Director General of the National Oil Company Mohsen Khojasteh Mehr announced Iran's readiness to supply the maximum amount of oil to the market. But is it possible to believe the Americans, who have been strangling Iran with sanctions all these years, especially during the most difficult times for the Iranian society during the raging coronavirus pandemic?

The United States, as soon as it solves its momentary difficulties, will again turn all its forces and allies against the Iranians. There is no faith in Washington, it is a bad friend. And, as is said, a bad friend is like a blacksmith – even if you don't get dirty with soot, you still can't get away from the smoke. American smoke can dirty anyone.

Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute