Will the West break Erdogan?

Turkey has decided on the policy of sanctions against Russia concerning its operation in Ukraine. The official representative of the Turkish President, İbrahim Kalın, said that Ankara "does not intend to take measures that will harm the republic”, because "we have close trade relations with Russia in such areas as tourism, natural gas supplies, agriculture”.

Kalın also explained that he foresees attempts by the West to bring Russia into international isolation and "taking into account its international priorities, Turkey intends to act as a "channel for a possible dialogue between Russia and the West”. "Who will talk to Russia when all the bridges will be burned?” Kalyn said in an interview with CNN Turk. "We are not planning to impose sanctions, in order to keep this channel open”. This means the following.

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a peculiar period of forced manoeuvring in a situation of a kind of "fork" between words and deeds is coming to an end. Earlier, he said that the West wanted to hear him, stating that "Turkey rejects and considers unacceptable the military operation launched by Russia against Ukraine," and "this step contradicts international law, and is a heavy blow to peace, tranquility and stability in the region”.

But when the situation began to turn in the direction of deeds, and when he was required to block the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits for the passage of Russian military vessels and close the airspace for Russian aircraft, he closed the straits, but not for Russian warships that had previously left the Mediterranean.

In this regard, Russian Ambassador to Turkey Aleksey Erkhov said that Moscow highly appreciates Ankara's position in favour of preserving and complying with the Montreux Convention on the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits. According to him, he is "convinced that together we can come to a situation where all our interests and all our aspirations will be respected and realised”.

As for the economic and other sanctions imposed by the West against Russia, Erkhov reminded the Turks about how the West imposed sanctions against Turkey during the time of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and the assistance provided by the Bolsheviks to the then young Turkish republic.

And even now the West is imposing sanctions against Turkey for any reason in order to moderate its foreign policy activity: it expands them against Turkish officials and businessmen, prohibits entry into EU countries, and freezes the assets of companies. True, Western ones are not so destructive for Turkey yet, but still.

The current situation needs some research. The initial analysis of the situation allows us to conclude that Ankara reacts in this way to the ongoing global geopolitical changes. This is reported by the Turkish newspaper Medya Günlüğü in an editorial.

The author, the well-known Turkish publicist Mustafa Kemal Eriç, claims that "today Moscow is single-handedly writing the script of world history, creating a ‘game' beyond which the leaders of Western countries can no longer go”. But Turkey takes a certain part in this game. In a broad sense, Turkey perceives the Ukrainian crisis in the planes of Russia-USA and Russia-NATO.

A vacuum has formed in "big diplomacy" and Erdogan seeks to occupy the positions of the so-called collective West. After Angela Merkel's departure from the political scene, the leading position in Europe has become vacant and French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to consolidate himself and his country as such a leader. After his incomprehensible "Ukrainian diplomacy", Erdogan's chances of implementing mediation efforts in the western direction began to grow, and hence his steep turns in foreign policy in order to create space for geopolitical manoeuvre.

On the one hand, it is a member of NATO. On the other hand, Ankara and Moscow are connected by a complex tangle of political agreements in the regions with overlapping interests, as well as close economic ties and common energy projects. Based on this, in the current confrontation between Russia and the West, Turkey would prefer to take "no sides" to avoid a choice.

If the collective West wins, then its influence in Turkey will be strengthened to the point that Erdogan may lose power. If Russia wins, then it will strengthen its presence in the Black Sea basin and even in the Middle East. Therefore, balancing, Erdogan designates his potential role as a mediator between the West and Russia.

The intrigue here is how long he will be able to stay in a state of balance between the centres of power. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Erdogan will have to directly face Western pressure to "get into the fight" and start pulling chestnuts out of the fire not for himself.

The Turkish publication Yeni Şafak goes further in its forecasts, claiming that "after Ukraine, the United States is trying to create another ‘front country’ in the Black Sea basin in the person of Turkey to confront Russia”. Meanwhile, Ankara stresses that Moscow and Kiev are friendly countries for it and calls its position "pragmatic neutrality". But the pressure from the West will grow on it, and its further policy and actions will largely be determined by the course of events in Ukraine.