Erdogan: the test of the 2023 elections

The head of the Turkish Nationalist Action Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, who is in a political alliance with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, made a sensational message.

According to him, at the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in 2023, Erdogan will be nominated for the post of head of state as a candidate from the so-called "People's Alliance", which was created earlier as a result of closed agreements between the MHP and the AKP. According to Bahçeli, "I believe that Mr. Erdogan will win by a large margin in the elections in June 2023, and ‘People's Alliance’ will also win a new victory."

The fact is that Erdogan entered into an alliance with the nationalists not for the fun of it. On the eve of the 2019 elections, AKP, which had previously ruled in the sole person, began to lose political points due to a serious political crisis that had begun in its ranks. Moreover, AKP lost its majority in parliament during the elections and could have even been removed from power.

Then the finest hour came for the nationalists. They not only kept Erdogan in power, but also managed to achieve a transformation of the country's domestic and foreign policy. In fact, back then a coup d'etat took place in the country. The opposition parties, with a total of 290 votes, could have even deprived Erdogan and his AKP of power altogether.

But as a result, internal and external enemies were designated for Turkey. The internal ones are Jews, Americans, Europeans, Alawites, Christians and, of course, Kurds. The "imperialist West" began to be designated as the main external enemy, and Erdogan's struggle for a "new Turkey" began to be presented as a “modern version of the liberation movement”.

And the main result: the nationalists sharply weakened AKP. It abandoned the slogans of "pro-Western neo-Ottomanism" and switched to Turkism, and the founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal, ceased to be considered a symbol of national significance. Thus Turkey was divided into the so-called pro-Western and eastern blocs, and the acute political struggle currently underway in the country is taking place in this paradigm.

It is no coincidence that in response to the appearance of the "People's Alliance" on February 12, six Turkish opposition parties – the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Good Party, the Felicity Party, the Democratic Party, the Future Party and the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) plan to meet to discuss a return to the parliamentary system.

The text of the prepared agreement includes clauses on limiting the term of presidential powers to seven years and reducing the power of the president. At the same time, it is noted that "events are taking place against the background of a decrease in public support for Erdogan and his AKP. According to a survey published by the Center for Socio-Political Field Research, 60% of Turks consider the presidential system in Turkey to be unsuccessful.

Thus, in the country, a year before the countdown to the next election begins, the internal political struggle is sharply escalating. According to the leader of the opposition party and former Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, it "can present big political surprises”. But which ones precisely?

The problem is that there is a shortage of charismatic political leaders in Turkey. All the politicians acting in the opposition camp are not independent figures and are perceived only as participants in various alliances with Western external forces. It is no coincidence that US President Joe Biden, promising "war" to Erdogan, threatened to support the opposition in the elections.

But here too, not everything is so clear. Recently, the Americans "unexpectedly" made an U-turn in the Eastern Mediterranean towards Turkey, saying that they had changed their mind about supporting the Greek-Israeli EastMed gas pipeline project.

Greek publications write that "the Biden administration began to use the tactics of diplomatic flirtation with Erdogan”, which "is part of certain unspoken agreements between the two countries”.

Their main meaning is to achieve in 2022 "a detente of tension not only between the United States and Turkey, but also in relations between Ankara and Brussels through the EU" and pull Turkey away from Russia, although, according to European experts, "Erdogan sets the task of remaining both an indispensable ally of the West and at the same time maintaining good relations with Russia and its rivals”.

At the same time, according to the American publication Foreign Policy, Washington is faced with the danger of losing Turkey and is trying to get it out of the "siege mentality", making certain concessions, realising that "Ankara's sharp shift towards the East is not yet in sight”. On this basis, it seems that Erdogan, together with Bahçeli, plans to split the opposition before the elections.

But the main challenge for Erdogan is still the economic crisis, which is unlikely to be overcome in a year. Now, in addition to the foreign policy balancing that Erdogan has been engaged in for more than a year, there is a complex domestic political front against him, when there is no chance to make the necessary political compromises.

In the meantime, Erdogan says that all elections are important, but given the circumstances affecting both Turkey and the whole world, voting in 2023 will be "vital for Turkey and its future role on the world stage”.

By the way, remember that the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey will be celebrated in 2023. The country does not have the promised place in the top ten world economies, there is no double growth of GDP per capita, as was promised in 2011. Inflation and unemployment are a separate story.

In general, big changes await Turkey in 2023. And, it is not at all excluded that by 2023 they will also adopt a new Constitution of the country. If the current government manages to do this, then, of course, it will be a triumph. And then there's also the first Turkish cosmonaut.