Erdogan's big game: from Ukraine to Sweden and Finland

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during a telephone conversation with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, said that "negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul should continue" and outlined "the need to support the Istanbul process”. Earlier, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu also discussed this. At a briefing following a meeting of NATO's countries foreign ministers in Brussels, he said that he had held a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmitry Kuleba, at which he again raised the issue of "resuming negotiations between Kiev and Moscow under new conditions”.

What are these conditions? It is curious that the Turkish side, once again offering its mediation services to Moscow and Kiev, least of all talks about the proposals that were made openly by conflicting parties, and, as Ankara assures, now they are being discussed in closed discussions. Turkish experts turned their main attention to deciphering the factor of the so-called "third force that disrupted the Istanbul process." Thus, “Gazete Kolektif” notes that "the United States began to introduce the thesis that the conflict in Ukraine will have a long-term character”.

Another Turkish publication, the Turkish “Hurriyet Daily News”, emphasises that "Western partners make it clear to Ankara that any version of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine does not suit Washington, which sets a more global goal of deterring Russia not in Ukraine, but on the scale of the European security system that has developed under their auspices."

There is also another position. The Turkish “Evrensel" assures that "the United States is striking at Erdogan, discrediting his mediation mission, forcing him to abandon the policy of balancing between the United States-NATO and Russia”, because "he began to appear in the news on world TV channels four times more than US President Joe Biden, and domestically increased this number in his favour by 3%”.

But not only that. Erdogan began to position himself on the world stage as "the main expert on Ukraine”. Thus, the official representative of the Turkish President Kalyn assures everyone that "Ankara is in control of the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian track, on which there is still a big gap”.

And in the meantime, as the head of the communications department of the Turkish presidential administration, Fahrettin Altun, says, "Erdogan accuses the international community of being unable to prevent and eliminate crisis phenomena, pointing to Ukraine, Syria, Libya and conflicts in other regions of the world where "major powers are waging geopolitical chess battles among themselves”.

This is already in case the Istanbul process cannot be resumed, and Ankara will be out of the Ukrainian "game". More precisely, if it will not be brought for the second half of the geopolitical "game". Its meaning is to stipulate its conditions that if Finland and Sweden give their consent to NATO membership, the West should commit to ending support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Fethullahist organisation (FETÖ), which is considered to be terroristic in Turkey, as well as the termination of the activities of these structures in the United States and Europe.

In addition, Turkey should seek concessions from the West on issues such as the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), EU membership, and the lifting of all sanctions against Turkey. Finally, according to an expert on security policy, Professor, Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın, "Ankara should look at whether the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO work against Turkey or not".

This is not done by chance. Erdogan is playing a big game, taking into account the fact that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have "reached an impasse", and that Moscow and Kiev are unlikely to use the Turkish platform in the future. Moreover, the conditions for the public continuation of the negotiation process have disappeared for various reasons.

As for Moscow, it is unlikely that it will seek to neutralise Turkey's mediating role in the Ukrainian crisis. Ankara opposed the anti-Russian sanctions and correctly interprets the Montreux Convention on Straits.

Moscow and Ankara have common interests in such regions as the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Eastern Mediterranean. But if Turkey becomes part of the "arc of tension", it will limit Erdogan's scope for action. It will be more difficult for him to continue, as before, to maintain relations, on the one hand, with the United States and NATO, and on the other - with Russia. Therefore, he will seek to get out of this predicament in foreign policy through Ukraine, Sweden or Finland.

And now he is trying to shift the main attention of Turkish society to foreign policy in the difficult economic situation in Turkey itself, demonstrating the ability to tactically manoeuvre. He has chances for this and it's working out for him in some things.