The attempt to save the main nazis of "Azov" from Mariupol was thwarted

On March 31, the air defence crews of the DPR units advancing on Mariupol thwarted a desperate attempt to evacuate the leadership of the nationalist “Azov” battalion, blocked in the city. It is known about three downed helicopters, and three surviving representatives of armed Ukrainian formations were found at the crash site. Currently, investigative measures are being carried out with them.

The attempt to evacuate high-ranking nazis is understandable, given the imminent and rather rapid defeat of the remnants of the “Azov” group. According to the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, Mariupol has been "already by 90-95%” liberated, which means that the time needed to cleanse the remaining territory is calculated in days. The head of the DPR Denis Pushilin has already announced the beginning of the formation of the administration of Mariupol.

It is logical that there will be attempts to take the leadership of "Azov" alive - they will be one of the best sources of information about the crimes of Ukrainian Nazism of the last eight years.

The defeat of the group entrenched in Mariupol will be a serious blow to the will to resist the remaining Ukrainian formations. In addition, the completion of the Mariupol task will free up forces to achieve other goals of the special military operation.

Against the background of the Mariupol story approaching its finale, it is impossible not to note a comparative decrease in the intensity of hostilities in other directions. According to the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, the Z units took full control of the settlement of Zolotaya Niva and forced the Kashlagach River, bringing the liberation of the territory of the DPR to 55-60%.

LPR units have captured Zhitlovka, and are now fighting the nazis in the area of the village of Kremennaya.

The intensification of the fighting for Mariupol coincided with the announced planned rotation of troops in the Kiev region. This, apparently, demonstrates the transition from the general seizure of the initiative and the "pulling apart" of superior Ukrainian forces in various directions, to the concentration of efforts to solve a specific military task.

According to known data, the combined forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the republican armies of the DPR and LPR are at least three times inferior to the enemy in number, while fighting in at least four directions. This is Kiev, as the political and administrative centre of Ukraine, the conditional direction of Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa, where the advance is currently limited to Nikolaev, the ongoing fighting in the Kharkov direction, and the suppression of the largest group of the Ukrainian army confined near Donetsk.

It is possible to begin the systematic defeat of this group only after the cleansing of Mariupol, where several thousand nazis remain. 

Acting with forces smaller than the Ukrainian ones, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the republican armies make a logical emphasis on their own manoeuvre and mobility, respectively, trying to worsen the mobility of the enemy. Among other things, this finds expression in the nature of the fighting, which is voiced by the Ministry of Defence: the Ukrainian army is consistently deprived of mechanisation, fuel and the coordination of actions.

According to the Ministry of Defence, in the evening of March 30, air-launched cruise missiles destroyed large fuel bases in Dnepropetrovsk, Lisichansk, Chuguev and Novomoskovsk. Local Ukrainian authorities have recognised the facts of the loss of strategic fuel reserves intended to supply the Ukrainian group of troops in Donbass.

Also, the Ukrainian side itself announced the absence of victims in a missile strike – an additional confirmation of the accuracy of the Russian Aerospace Forces during the liquidation of warehouses.

Judging by the reports of the Ministry of Defence, over the past night, the UAF lost their last Bayraktar in the area of Bezymyannoye - before that, 35 drones out of 36 known were reported destroyed.  In the absence of new supplies from Turkey by a roundabout route through Europe, we can talk about the complete exhaustion of this weapons system in the Ukrainian arsenal.

In addition to the Bayraktar-TB2, 17 other drones were destroyed by air defence forces. The night work of the Russian Aerospace Forces led to the defeat of 52 military facilities of Ukraine.

The total "score" since the beginning of the special military operation: 124 aircraft and 77 helicopters, 216 anti-aircraft missile systems, 341 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,815 tanks and other armoured vehicles, 195 multiple rocket launchers, 762 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 1,689 units of special military vehicles were destroyed.

The exact plan of the special military operation remains unknown for obvious reasons, but after the defeat of Mariupol and the resolution of the issue with the "Donetsk" enemy group, the most obvious military threat will be the southern direction.

The UAF group near Nikolaev is quite strong, its ranks were replenished by nationalists who left Kherson, as well as militants who managed to get out of Mariupol.

Taking into account geography, after solving the problem of the "Donetsk" grouping of Ukrainian forces, we should expect an intensification of military actions in the direction of Odessa, approaching Nikolaev not only from the side of the Southern Bug delta, which is inconvenient for manoeuvre, but also from the north-eastern direction.

Thus, the units of the Russian Armed Forces that are blocking Kiev, in the near future will find themselves in the position of a barrier, whose mission is to maintain control and repel possible counterattacks until the tasks in the south of Ukraine are solved.

Mobilisation in any form on the territory of Russia has not been announced and is not being prepared, which means that a special military operation in Ukraine will be continued with limited forces.