Afghan labyrinths of Russian politics

The visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to the small resort town of Tunxi in eastern China was outwardly wrapped in an "Afghan covering", as he was "tied" to participate in the third conference of Afghanistan's neighbouring countries (Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan).

The visit was divided into two separate topics, although in some respects having something in common. The first and main part was Lavrov's conversation with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. In the context of the development of the Ukrainian crisis, when China is under severe pressure from the United States, demanding not to assist Russia in circumventing the sanctions imposed against it, it was important for Moscow and Beijing to check their watches.

"The foreign ministers of the two countries stated that in a difficult international situation, Russia and China continue to strengthen strategic partnership, to act in world affairs from a common position," this is how the situation is assessed in the message of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Recall that China refused to join the anti-Russian sanctions after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, saying that "Moscow's security concerns are justified, and Western restrictions violate international norms”. At the same time, there are certain nuances in Beijing's position, and, apparently, it is no coincidence that the fact of the meeting of the two ministers did not become front-page news for the Chinese media.

There are many reasons, as well as theories. Perhaps, writes the South China Morning Post, "this is caused by China's desire at this stage to distance itself from the Ukrainian conflict and avoid secondary sanctions that Chinese state-owned companies and banks may be subjected to if they help Russia bypass American restrictions”. At the same time, it is not profitable for Beijing for Moscow to weaken. It does not want to be left alone with the West, and its position on Russia can be taken seriously.

As for the Afghan issues, Moscow has always been an important party in Afghan issues, it has a lot in common with Beijing. But even here, not everything is so clear. Due to well-known reasons, Russia is forced to shift the focus of its agenda more rapidly to the markets of South Asia, which increases the relevance of projects related to Afghanistan. But in order to diversify its foreign policy ties in this direction, Moscow will have to look more closely at the Taliban as a force controlling Afghan territory.

The Taliban are now divided into different political camps, immersed in internal contradictions, which prevents the creation of the necessary conditions for investment and project implementation. Of course, the main responsibility for the difficulties experienced by Afghanistan is borne by the United States, which, instead of assisting the country after 20 years of occupation, imposed sanctions against it, froze the assets of the Central Bank, where billions of dollars lie.

There are also problems with the principles of forming a Taliban government. The situation is also aggravated by the fact that several negotiation platforms have been formed in Kabul after the Americans left. This is the aforementioned forum of Afghanistan's neighbouring countries, then an expanded "troika" – Russia, the United States, China and Pakistan, as well as the "troika" China, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

China participated in the negotiations in all these formats. But no one knows how correlated the Afghan problems considered there are. So, for example, earlier Moscow blocked the formats created by the United States on the Afghan settlement, declaring the development of its own, Moscow (the meetings were held with the participation of representatives of Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan).

But then active contacts began between Russia and the United States on the Afghan issue. It was expected that they would expand and go beyond the Afghan theme, but so far there are no signs of this. Nevertheless, after the launch of a new formula for negotiations with the participation of Russia, the United States and China, the activities of the Moscow format were reduced to a minimum. Moscow agreed to its disbandment in exchange for the creation of the formula — "troika plus".

At the same time, Lavrov noted the importance of continuing work within this format, pointing to the need for the American side to participate in this mechanism, based on the "interests of the Afghan people." This suggests that external players are still groping for the mechanism of their influence on Afghanistan, which leads so far to a noticeable competition between various formulas for a peaceful settlement.

By the way, Moscow was the main initiator of the conference of Afghanistan's neighbouring countries, although it does not have a common border.

Pakistan, like Iran, is a geographical neighbour of Afghanistan. It has a long disputed border with Afghanistan, while China has only a short section of the 43-kilometre-long common border. But it adjoins the restive Xinjiang region with a large Muslim minority.

A "Plan for Afghanistan" was proposed at the forum. It provides for the recognition at the UN level of the Taliban administration, the formation of a government not only with the participation of various ethnic groups, but also different political forces, improved coordination of work in the humanitarian and socio-economic spheres, etc.

However, it's still on paper. The task is to realise the created intellectual potential in practice, which is still very far away in Afghanistan.