UKPOLUK - British spear against the EU and Russia

Great Britain, Poland and Ukraine are creating a new format of political cooperation in Europe, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said at the opening of the seventh session of the Verkhovna Rada. However, Zelensky did not talk about the details of cooperation. Most likely, at the request of London, which historically loves the methods of "secret diplomacy".

By analogy with AUKUS (Australia, Great Britain, USA), the new alliance can be abbreviated as UKPOLUK. But what is its formal status? Former Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski is asking reasonable questions in this regard.

Firstly, he notes that the creation of a defence alliance outside of NATO (this applies to Warsaw and London) and, consequently, the possibility of being drawn into a war cannot be exclusively the decision of the government. This "requires an act of ratification and, consequently, the consent of the Sejm, the Senate and the President of Poland."

Secondly, "providing security guarantees that you cannot or are not going to fulfil creates a danger for both sides: 1) the country under threat becomes bolder than it should be; 2) it is precisely to it that the guarantors transfer the right to make a decision on their participation in the war."

In other words, Kiev can theoretically declare war on Russia, which automatically leads to the entry into an armed conflict with Moscow of both Warsaw and London. However, is this the true purpose of the new alliance?

A number of commentators note that "the UK considers its activity in the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation as a way to restore the positions of a great power that Brexit weakened”, and also point out that "three countries (Great Britain, Poland and Ukraine – RUSSTRAT) are united by conflicts with the European Union”.

London and Warsaw are primarily interested in undermining the EU, and the current Ukrainian crisis gives them the opportunity to demonstrate this. According to Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute, "the UK is differentiating itself from Germany and France and to some extent even from the United States”.

Thus, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss defiantly missed a meeting in Berlin with American Secretary of State Antony Blinken and her German and French colleagues to discuss Ukraine, sending her deputy there. Instead, she traveled to Australia, where she met with officials to talk about AUKUS. As the New York Times notes, "it looked strange in the midst of the growing European crisis”.

As for Warsaw, the ruling Polish Law and Justice Party (PiS) has sharply intensified the war against Berlin and Brussels in recent months for its own reasons. At the end of January this year, Prime Minister Morawiecki went to Spain for a meeting called "Defend Europe", where the leaders of the right-wing European parties were present.

Contrary to the expectations of some Western analysts who hoped that the Madrid summit will focus on the "Russian threat to Eastern Europe", the main attention of the audience was attracted by completely different "threats": migration, demographic decline and the European Union. According to Roman Kuźniar, a professor at the University of Warsaw, "Poland's foreign policy is now aimed at stopping EU interference."

Thus, while Germany, Russia and France are working to resolve the Ukrainian crisis by peaceful political and diplomatic means, Warsaw and London are using it to solve their goal - to undermine the European Union as a geopolitical player, and at the same time Russia. In this situation, the two continental forces must act together, since we are already talking about something bigger than the fate of Ukraine: British-Polish provocations can lead to a third world war.

A lot depends on Berlin and Paris. The German and French authorities could submit the issue of UKPOLUK to NATO for consideration, demanding that the North Atlantic Alliance distance itself from this association. In addition, to warn Warsaw and London about the danger of unilateral actions without broad consultations with NATO member countries, otherwise suggesting that Britain and Poland withdraw from the alliance.

A separate question is what to do with Poland, which is still a member of the European Union. If the current ruling coalition leaves the political scene and the opposition forces come to power, the foreign policy of this country may seriously change. And then Warsaw will "remember" that it is geographically located in Europe, and not on a separate continent.

But the next parliamentary election in Poland will be held only in the autumn of 2023. Can the EU afford to wait that long? Perhaps it should take some measures in relation to "Law and Justice" already now.