The great-grandson of the last Vizier of the Ottoman Empire continues the family tradition
Boris Johnson proposes to create an alternative EU and NATO alliance of Ukraine, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Turkey, Moldova and Romania, united by "the toughest possible position against the Russian military threat”.
We recently talked about the “Intermarium” project with the London-Ankara axis, initiated by a political alliance of charismatic politicians – Boris Johnson and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In addition to their "Turkic" roots, they are united by the idea of creating a new empire, where the dominant role will not belong to the United States. In addition to the redistribution of zones of influence, such a redistribution as a by-product will destroy the European Union in the form in which we know it.
Although many believe that "Intermarium" is a project only at the level of an idea, the prerequisites for its practical implementation are now being viewed. The latter is facilitated by the long-standing territorial interests of Poland, Romania and Turkey, which can become a reality through their participation in the project. Ukraine, whose territory will be divided, and Moldova and Transnistria, which are threatened with absorption by Romania, will be disadvantaged.
As part of the project, Boris Johnson voiced the idea of a new alliance, which should include countries that for various reasons cannot enter the EU. The leading role is assigned to the UK, followed by Poland, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Turkey. Although Moldova and Romania are not named by Johnson, but remembering the geography of the “Intermarium" countries, the geopolitical interests of Turkey and Britain, let's assume that they are on this list too.
The ideological basis is the commonality, first of all, of military, then political and economic interests. Western media assess the project as Johnson's adventure in order to distract attention from his "tricks". Domestic one - adhere to the position that this is a strategy to squeeze out Russia. The basis for this is given by the statements of Polish politicians. For example, the Deputy Minister of Infrastructure of Poland Marcin Horała that by uniting, Poland and Ukraine will be able to oust Russia from Europe to Asia.
The unification of countries that are not part of the European Union for various reasons, especially considering such major players as Turkey, is quite possible. History shows that lone persons rarely win. Forecasts about the strengthening of the role of Turkey and Poland appeared back in 2008 in an interview of George Friedman, head of the intelligence and analytical structure Stratfor, with the Polish website Rzeczpospolita.
Friedman spoke directly about the emergence of a new rival in Europe in the 21st century - Turkey. "America will do everything to make Poland as strong as possible… In the coming decades, the forces of Germany and Russia will significantly decrease. There will be a vacuum in which a new powerful player must appear. Geography says it can only be Poland… Russia, which seems so strong, is getting weaker, and Germany is losing its importance. But when the old powers tend to decline, something new always arises… A new rival will appear in Europe in the XXI century – Turkey ... ".
Indeed, Germany's position in Europe is steadily weakening. This is also bad for us due to the fact that the union includes states that are more or less in confrontation with Russia, especially in terms of views on the world order and historical justice. The emerging community is reflected in the list of the most friendly states for Ukraine compiled by Forbes, which includes the countries mentioned by Johnson as part of the alliance: Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
The most "friendly" Poland was given a special role. The Polish leadership does not try to hide its territorial ambitions and through the mouth of President Duda declares that the Polish-Ukrainian border will soon cease to exist. Against this background, Zelensky announces consideration of the draft law "On the special legal status of Polish citizens", which will allow Poland to introduce a military contingent to Ukraine without a mandate from the UN Security Council or based on Article 5 of the NATO charter approval.
Kiev and Warsaw's agreements on a trilateral alliance with London in cooperation with the United States, the EU and NATO to counter common threats, reached on June 1 during the Ukrainian-Polish intergovernmental consultations, may become the first steps to create an alliance.
About the role of the UK… London did not stay away from the events. The Council for Geostrategy, based in Westminster, published a map on Twitter, which shows the axis passing through Ukraine, Poland and Britain. At the same time, Romania, the Baltic states and Moldova are clearly marked.
Among the countries mentioned in the list, no one has made an unequivocal statement about the idea of the British Prime Minister regarding the possibility or impossibility of an alliance. Thus, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry, through the Minister's mouth, expressed "the need to strengthen existing alliances, as well as the absence of "concrete proposals, their reality and seriousness”. Although we have not found any other statements, it is worth taking into account the joint declaration signed by the Presidents of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia on the continuation of cooperation between the countries.
It is necessary to pay attention to this not only because of the list of common anti-Russian sentiments of the countries that signed the declaration, but also because the document was signed on May 3 as part of the celebration of the 230th anniversary of the adoption of the Constitution of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Turning to history, we will see that both the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Little Entente were also created in similar circumstances by the same participants. That is, there is a historical precedent (and more than one). It seems that both the date and the event were not selected accidentally.
Although most analysts doubt that the local union of Kiev, Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn is capable of developing into a serious regional bloc, they do not deny that a local union itself does take place. The tendencies of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic countries to increase cooperation are planned since the time of "Lublin Triangle" within the framework of the "Eastern Partnership" and the "Greater Intermarium" long before the special operation.
The special operation itself became only a kind of catalyst. Numerous media appearances from Poland and Turkey are already publishing materials on a possible partnership on a regular basis. Is this information planting in order to track the opinion of the world community and the population of the countries of interest, perhaps with a high degree of probability in favour of monitoring. This alone suggests that the ground is being prepared.
If we take into account all the direct and indirect evidence and historical prerequisites indicated in the material, then the probability of creating a new alliance at least in the person of Poland and Ukraine is estimated as extremely high. Whether the Baltic states will participate in it, whether Romania, Moldova and Turkey will take part, will depend on the current situation, which is changing every day.