Elena Panina: Xi and Erdogan between Biden and Putin

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with RBK that the majority of countries support Moscow in connection with the situation in Ukraine, but they are under unprecedented pressure. The first people Lavrov named were China and Turkey. According to him, there is "just rudeness that erupts from Washington, it is, I do not know, beyond”.

In addition, the official representative of the European Commission, Peter Stano, said that the European Union is working with Ankara, Beijing and other capitals "so that they support sanctions against Russia and would not contribute to circumventing these restrictive measures”. Stano said that the European Union seeks to create a "united front at the international level" to "isolate the Russian leadership because of the Ukrainian crisis”.

China and Turkey are countries with different weight categories in world politics. But in the current situation, they are united by their declared mediation efforts in the settlement of relations between Moscow and Kiev. At the same time, as the "collective West" recognises, Turkey is more advanced in the practical implementation of its peacekeeping scenario.

With its mediation, a meeting was held in Antalya between Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during a recent telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, suggested choosing Istanbul or Ankara as a platform for possible high-level talks between Kiev and Moscow.

Erdogan refers to his good relations with the leadership of Ukraine and Russia, explaining his own efforts solely by concern for "regional security problems”. Although this thesis also hides a desire to develop more actively in the post-Soviet space after the second Karabakh war. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also plays along with him, saying that he considers Turkey as one of the countries that could act as a "guarantor of Ukraine's security”.

As for China, its mediation efforts have so far been indicated only at the level of statements and have not found public recognition in Kiev. After all, Beijing openly shares Moscow's concern about NATO expansion, as it faces a similar threat. According to the head of Chinese diplomacy Wang Yi, "today the United States is trying to build an Indo-Pacific version of NATO at the borders of China”.

At the same time, China, in response to the transformation of American military alliances, does not intend to create military blocs with Russia. Wang Yi stressed that Beijing adheres to the principles of "non-alignment with the blocs, non-confrontation and non-targeting against third countries" in its relations with Moscow.

But, as was shown by the virtual talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, and before that, Biden's telephone conversations with Erdogan, the Americans are trying to act from a position of strength in relation to Turkey and China, "convincing" them of the absence or insufficiency of "immunity of counteraction”.

Turkish and Chinese diplomacy explain their current neutral attitude to the Ukrainian conflict to Washington by their readiness for mediation efforts, which does not imply participation in sanctions against Russia.

All this suggests that Turkey and China, despite the obvious differences in the political assessment of both the Ukrainian crisis itself and its causes, have something in common in the characteristics of the declared neutrality. They are caught between two fires: they do not want to spoil relations with Russia and do not want to burn bridges with the West.

Nevertheless, Ankara in the NATO–Russia–Turkey triangle objectively introduces a split in the North Atlantic Alliance burdened with contradictions, which unnerves Washington. And China, regardless of Russia's confrontation with the West and Ukraine, is waging its own confrontation with the United States.

It is becoming difficult for Americans to put pressure on Beijing and Ankara also because it can contribute to the political rapprochement of Xi Jinping and Erdogan on the platform of mediators of the Ukrainian crisis.

But nothing happens in the East for only one reason. The economic interests of the parties, including infrastructure projects within the framework of the Chinese initiative of the New Silk Road, remain the driving force of the possible Turkish-Chinese rapprochement. It may be important for Ankara to rely on China in a situation of sanctions pressure from the United States due to the purchase of Russian S-400, as well as European sanctions.

That is why the Turkish authorities, showing to a certain extent hypertrophied activity in the Ukrainian direction, often look back at Beijing. Moreover, unlike Russia and China, Western partners continue to perceive Turkey as a "second-class country", if not even a "third" one.

Therefore, although the White House makes it clear to Beijing and Ankara that they "will bear responsibility for any actions they take to support Russian aggression in Ukraine," instead of the "united anti-Russian front at the international level" expected by the West with the participation of Turkey and China, something completely different may turn out. American pressure on the Turks and Chinese is no longer critical.

Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute