Germany, Poland and France are preparing for a big war in Europe

The past week was marked by statements made by the leaders of three European countries - Germany, Poland and France, who outlined a course for the militarisation of their societies and the build-up of military power.

On Thursday, March 17, French President Emmanuel Macron, who is running for a second term, made a corresponding speech during a press conference. "Our forces are the only fully-fledged army on the European continent. We need to increase investments in order to be prepared for a possible high-intensity armed conflict that may begin on our continent," the French president said.

Macron intends, if re-elected, to increase defence spending to €50 billion by 2025. He also announced a doubling of the number of reservists in the Armed Forces and an increase in the number of police and gendarmerie. The president did not give any explanations why this is necessary. However, he further linked military investments with ensuring the food, energy and economic independence of France.

On Friday, March 18, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, whose ministry will oversee the project, announced the beginning of the development of a new national security strategy for Germany. She stated Berlin's desire to take on more responsibility within NATO.

The approach is outlined as follows: the new security strategy should be focused on a "value-oriented foreign policy". Specifically, this means that Germany is going to become independent in all respects. According to Baerbock, "we have found that one-sided economic orientation makes us vulnerable”.

Finally, on the same day in Warsaw, Polish President Andrzej Duda signed the law "On the Protection of the Motherland". It assumes an increase in the military budget to 3% of GDP, an increase in the number of Armed Forces (up to 250,000 military personnel plus 50,000 Territorial Defence Troops). As Duda stated, "we have excellent allies, but we should be able to be independent as well”.

In all three cases, the "war in Ukraine" was called the formal reason for the announcement of the new course. However, this is just a smokescreen that German, Polish and French politicians use to cover up previously announced plans. So, Macron said back in 2018 that the European Union should have its own army: to protect against China, Russia and even the US. After that, Paris began to promote the concept of strategic autonomy of the EU with the expectation of acquiring a powerful military potential.

Berlin did not seem to show any public initiative in this situation. However, German politicians, apparently, calculated the option of putting the country on the rails of militarisation, waiting for a suitable reason to talk about it. And he turned up when Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine.

As the German publication Krass & Konkret notes, "Germany uses the war for national awakening”. After Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the immediate allocation of €100 billion for the rearmament of the Bundeswehr and an increase in the defence budget to 2% of GDP, Germany will receive "the third largest military budget in the world after the United States and China, leaving its European competitors far behind”.

Thus, the publication notes, Germany intends to "clarify some of the contradictions in the post-war structure that arose as a result of the unsuccessful outcome for her in the last World War”. And the German Armed Forces will "finally" be brought to the level necessary for Berlin to "autonomously ensure its economic interests and the development of geostrategic power necessary for this”.

However, for now we can say that Germany and France are interested in projecting future military power outside the EU. Paris is playing an active game in Africa, sending troops there. As for Berlin, its desire to reorient itself from Russian gas supplied through pipelines to liquefied natural gas implies the buildup of the German Naval Forces, which will need to ensure the safety of maritime transportation. Maybe in this situation, the Germans will have their own aircraft carrier or aircraft carriers.

But why, in this case, did Macron call on the French to be "ready for a possible high-intensity armed conflict that could begin on our continent"? It is possible that this is due to the position of Poland, which, according to the chairman of the Polish ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) Jaroslaw Kaczynski, intends to create "a more powerful army than in Ukraine”.

With such an army, Warsaw will project its military power already on its European neighbours. And it is unlikely that the matter will be limited only to Russia and Belarus. An intriguing statement in this regard was made the other day by PiS deputy Marek Suski. In an interview with TVP Info, he said: "Some say that Germany would like to revise the borders. Perhaps it's an element of thinking that they haven't gotten rid of." And he added that he had been observing similar trends among Germans for many years.

These views are common in Polish right-wing circles. Perhaps that is why, since the government of Law and Justice came to power in 2015, purchases of American weapons have sharply increased, and not only defensive ones – contracts have been signed for the supply of more than 30 of the latest F-35 fighters and 250 Abrams tanks. Why does Warsaw need all this?

The answer was given by the MEP from the “Alternative for Germany” party, Johannes Normann. As he wrote on Twitter recently, "we don't need another world war provoked by Poland." Have Macron and Scholz come to such conclusions?