The “Azov” sitting: a brilliant operation with a characteristic end

By the evening of May 20, it was possible to record a major success of Operation Z – from the territory of "Azovstal", where several thousand militants of the UAF have been sitting for the last few weeks, the absolute majority of "sitters" have surrendered. Among other surrendered there were those who became the most famous thanks to their videos with promises to fight to the end - the commander of the 36th Separate Brigade of the Marines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sergey Volynsky ("Volyna"), the commander of the terrorist group "Azov" Denis Prokopenko, known as "Redis", and his deputy Svyatoslav Palamar, known as "Kalyna".

"Redis" had to be taken out of the plant in an armoured personnel carrier because of the hatred for him of Mariupol residents, whom the nazis of "Azov" terrorised for eight years - all other methods of transportation were fraught with lynching by the townspeople.

The "Kalyna", "Volyna" and "Redis" trio were transferred to the pre-trial detention centre for investigative actions. Given the endless evidence base, hundreds and thousands of living witnesses of the crimes of this trio and subordinate to them terrorists, the verdict of any tribunal can not be other than the most severe one.

According to the information that was made public in a special statement of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, the territory of the “Azovstal” metallurgical plant has been completely liberated and many kilometres of underground structures have been taken under control. The total number of surrendered militants amounted to 2,439 people.

For obvious reasons, comprehensive information on the progress of the liberation of "Azovstal" will not be available soon. But already now this operation looks like a fine example of military art. According to multiple reports of those who took part in the battles for the city and “Azovstal", the biggest surprise was that the number of nazis who settled on the territory of the plant was greater than the besiegers. According to some estimates – 10 (!) times more.

Thus, the Russian army committed an impossible thing according to the classical canons of military science – it forced the capitulation of the enemy's superior forces, sitting in a fortification well adapted for long-term defence, having enough weapons and ammunition for resistance, as well as hostages.

Then investigators and judges will deal with the "Azov sitters". As for the military-political consequences of their surrender, a number of points can be noted.

Thus, in the camp of the Ukrainian nazis, outright fermentation began. The founder of "Azov" Andrey Biletsky is reproached for misinforming a part of the population loyal to the nazis about the real state of affairs. As recently as May 17, Biletsky publicly stated that the "Azov sitters" would be saved and assured that "in 2-3 days" the militants themselves would tell how everything happened.

On May 20, Biletsky's colleagues gave comments to the Russian media before being sent to the pre-trial detention centre. Taking into account the extremely dosed information that the Kiev regime supplies to the population, awareness of what happened may arise in Ukrainian society by the beginning of next week.

The reaction options can be very different. For example, this is a good reason to remove Vladimir Zelensky from the post of commander-in-chief, if his Western curators make such a decision. More suitable can only be the defeat of the UAF grouping near Severodonetsk, where, synchronously with the surrender of “Azov”, allied forces have achieved noticeable, and sometimes decisive results.

Severodonetsk, occupied by the UAF, is surrounded on three sides by allied troops, and fighting is already taking place on the outskirts of the city. As was mentioned earlier, the military task of defeating this Ukrainian grouping will be more difficult: the enemy's manoeuvre remains, there is the possibility of moving to Lisichansk and back. The connection between the two points is provided by bridges, which are likely to cease to exist in the near future.

For the complete encirclement of Severodonetsk-Lisichansk, there is a need of effective moving forward of the grouping that recently took control of Popasnaya. The encirclement can bring down the front on a significant territory, providing the necessary condition for the complete liberation of the territory of the LPR.

The completion of the military part of the operation in the region of Mariupol makes it possible to redirect forces to the north, which will contribute to the defeat of the "Donbass" grouping of the UAF. Estimates of the number of the enemy vary greatly, but the most plausible figure can be considered from 20,000 to 30,000 Ukrainian military in the agglomeration of Severodonetsk-Lisichansk-Kramatorsk.

The battle promises to be quite intense and bloody for the Ukrainian side – especially since, according to the already established tradition, the control centres and enemy concentration sites are carefully processed by missiles.  

It cannot be excluded that the example of “Azov" will be contagious, and the fighters of the UAF, less ideologised than the "Azov sitters", will prefer a faster surrender. Especially because despite the titanic efforts of Ukrainian propaganda, the image of cannibals from the Russian army is failing to be formed, and the conditions of captivity may seem attractive even for those militants who do not take an active part in hostilities.

The Ukrainian group occupying part of the territory of the LPR and the DPR is the obvious next target for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to the activity that occurs on the left flank, in the direction of Nikolaev-Odessa. Local media reported that one of the targets of today's missile strikes was the Odessa port plant.

Odessa port plant is the largest enterprise in the chemical industry of Ukraine. It specialises in the production of ammonia, urea, liquid nitrogen, carbon dioxide and liquid oxygen, also engaged in the transshipment of chemical products. A missile strike on such a target is an extremely risky event, despite the conservation of the plant on April 2, 2022, it was impossible to completely remove all the chemicals stored there, including in a liquefied state.

With some imagination, it's possible to come up with the military expediency of a strike on an Odessa port plant – for example, a warehouse of weapons that are particularly dangerous for allied forces or the presence of a "think tank" of NATO instructors, but such a strike would belong to the categories of extreme cases.

Simultaneously with the missile strike allegedly inflicted on the Odessa portside, the governor of the Nikolaev region of Ukraine, Vitaly Kim, published a video message in which he described the missile strike in detail and reported on the "smell of ammonia."

It cannot be ruled out that we are seeing the preparation of the very "chemical" provocation of the Kiev regime that the Russian Defence Ministry has repeatedly warned about.