"Where Russia is, there is calmness": the Russian military in Syria is not leaving at all
The Jerusalem Post quotes the King of Jordan Abdullah II, who during his official visit to the United States said that "Iran and its puppets are filling the vacuum left by Russia in the south of Syria”. According to him, "Russia has focused its attention on Ukraine”, and this "may lead to problems along the borders of Jordan”.
Earlier, the Israeli website Debka reported about the same thing, but in the context of the fact that another redistribution of the zone of influence is taking place in Syria. This publication explained the intensification of Israeli military operations in the Syrian direction. But Debka did not indicate the source of the information, which devalued what was written.
This time, everything is somewhat different, since Abdullah II in the Middle East enjoys a reputation for having close ties with the Russian military department. Therefore, his statement at the Hoover Institute of Stanford University in the Jerusalem Post was reprinted by many Arabic and world publications.
By this factor, the press explains the intensification of Israeli military operations in the Syrian direction and even Turkey's military operation in northern Iraq against the Kurdistan Workers' Party: like saying that a certain geopolitical reconstruction is taking place in the region in connection with the Ukrainian crisis.
Moreover, one of the sources of intrigue is located in Kiev. In the program of Mark Feigin on Israel TV adviser to the President of Ukraine Aleksey Arestovich said that "Israel will benefit from the castling that Russia has arranged in Syria”, and "if Iran really comes to the bases left by the Russians, then the IDF can bomb them unrestrictedly”.
Some Arab publications, in particular The Arab Weekly, cite the opinions of other Ukrainian political scientists, who generally assure that "Russia's defeat in Ukraine will cause serious consequences in the Middle East”, since Moscow will "lose control in Syria and Iran will take its place." Interestingly, Abdullah II also speaks about the strengthening of Iranian influence in the country, emphasising that "Russia's presence in the south of Syria is a source of calm."
At the official level, Moscow does not confirm these reports. It can be assumed that there is a tactical redeployment of Russian forces in Syria. It is possible that the number of sorties has decreased: keeping so many aircraft and other military units there could be deemed unnecessary. But there are no real signs of Russia's refusal to continue the Syrian operation.
This is indicated by such an important factor as the continued presence of a permanent operational unit of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, it is clearly premature to announce the withdrawal of Russian troops before a real political agreement on the Syrian settlement appears. This follows from the agreement with Damascus on the functioning of Russian military bases on the territory of the Republic.
At best, it's possible to agree with the King of Jordan in the proposal to wait until "the raised informational dust settles down in the next couple of weeks”. And, of course, with the fact that Russia's presence is a source of calm.
Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute