Who will be the first to invest in Russia – Germany or USA?

The visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Moscow as part of a tour in Russia and Ukraine turned out to be remarkable in many respects. Merkel represents the CDU/CSU alliance, which is now trying to hold the leading position on the eve of the parliamentary election scheduled for September this year. However, it is not very successful in this.

As some Telegram channels note, "the CDU/CSU is losing political points due to the failure in Afghanistan. According to the latest data, the union has lost a significant percentage of support, and the SPD is neck and neck with it. The risk of creating a new government in which the CDU will not participate is increasing.

Olaf Scholz, the SPD candidate, is the most favourite candidate for chancellor among Germans. Thus, 29% of respondents would support his nomination. In turn, only 12% would like to see Laschet (Armin Laschet, candidate from the CDU/CSU) in office. Baerbock (Annalena Baerbock, candidate from the Greens) is much better – 15%. Scholz managed to create a successful image of a strong business executive, but the most important thing is that he simply conducts the campaign correctly and does not make elementary mistakes, like Baerbock and Laschet do".

In this difficult situation, Merkel will have to solve several tasks at once. First, as the current Chancellor, she needs to cope with the current foreign policy challenges. At the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, they were listed – Afghanistan and the related to it potential migration crisis, perhaps no less risky than the one that manifested itself in 2015, as well as the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and the "Nord Stream 2" problem related to Kiev.

Secondly, the Chancellor should discuss with Moscow the candidacy of her successor, explain what to expect from them, and approve the agreements that they will have to adhere to. Of course, this makes sense only if the CDU/CSU can overcome the drop in approval ratings and increase momentum in the election campaign. And, thirdly, it's time for Merkel to decide what kind of German politician she wants to remain in history. Not just the first female chancellor, but to formulate the principles of "Merkelism".

Putin gave an excellent description of Merkel. His respect was aroused by the fact that she "has been heading the government of the Federal Republic for 16 years, confidently leads one of the largest, leading countries in Europe, and she is rightfully among the most authoritative European and world leaders." As the Russian president explained, "our views did not always coincide, but the dialogue between us was frank, meaningful, aimed at finding compromises, at solving the most difficult issues."

After that, he recalled that "Germany is really one of Russia's priority partners both in politics and in the economy." However, although the trade turnover between our countries has begun to recover and there are various major economic projects, specific indicators could be better. And in this sense, it is noteworthy what the replica of one of the German websites writes: "Germany is rich, its companies should invest in Russia".

At first glance, this is already happening. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, German business is again expanding investments in Russia, the German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Trade reported at the end of May, citing data from the Federal Bank of Germany. From January to March 2021, German companies invested €1.1 billion in the Russian economy. However, the transition from economic quantities in geopolitical quality will begin when Germany will decide to strategically invest in Russia and assist it – not to the detriment of itself, of course – with large-scale capital injections and advanced technologies.

It's not just that Moscow makes decisions on countries such as Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria and Libya. In a global world, it is necessary to deal with global tasks. And it depends on Berlin, in particular, whose partner Russia can become - Germany or the United States. After all, Washington is also trying to play the Russian card now. It's not to be excluded that the Americans will be ready to make an offer to Russia, similar to the one that US President Richard Nixon once made to China.

The Anglo-Saxons, especially Great Britain, historically tried to prevent the alliance of the great Russian and German continental powers. They understood that an alliance of these two countries would allow them to shift the emphasis from control over the seas to land, and here Moscow and Berlin would have no equal to themselves. An alternative option is being worked out by the Americans, who intend to draw Russia into the coalition they are forming against China.

Meanwhile, the Germans and Russians have much more in common. Moscow could become an exporter of security for Berlin, and Berlin could provide capital and technology. No one doubts that Russia fulfils its obligations to its partners. By the way, unlike the United States, which dangerously framed its own European allies with the flight from Afghanistan.

Of course, the idea of a strategic alliance with Moscow will not be a simple U-turn for Berlin. Numerous American agents of influence in Germany will try to discredit it. But maybe it will be even more interesting for Merkel to take up this task after leaving the post of Chancellor? In case of a positive outcome, she will definitely remain in German history a politician of the Bismarck scale, or even higher.