The US is turning Central Asia into a springboard against Russia, China and Iran

During the period from May 23 to May 27, 2022, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, as part of the US delegation, visited Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. The official goal is to “strengthen US relations with the region”.

Based on the composition of the delegation, which included Eric Green, National Security Council's Senior Director for Russia and Central Asia, Rebecca Zimmerman, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia, Änjali Kaur, Deputy Assistant Administrator of the US Bureau for Asia, and Naz El-Khatib - the goal is somewhat different.

Namely, the promotion of military-technical cooperation in conjunction with "soft power" in the form of civil initiatives (for example, "shared values and US support for women's empowerment"), promoted through the expansion of NGO activities.

By the way, most of the delegation are members of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is banned in Russia. And this is the second trip of high-ranking US officials to the region. Earlier, US Undersecretary of State for Civil Security, Democracy and Human Rights Uzra Zeya visited Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan from April 11 to 16, 2022.

How initiatives to promote "civil society" usually end up can be seen in the recent January events in Kazakhstan, numerous revolutions in Kyrgyzstan, where various non-governmental organisations sponsored by the West played an important role. In terms of military cooperation, these are not "first steps" either. Washington has long supplied weapons to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The armies of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in terms of structure, weapons, have practically been transferred to the NATO standard.

During the visits, taking into account mandatory meetings with representatives of defence departments, the return of American military bases that have already been in the region may be initiated. In the period from 2000 to 2014, the United States was able to negotiate with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to establish their own bases on their territory, as well as to develop security cooperation with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan against the background of the operation in Afghanistan that was beginning at that time.

Then Washington decided to "put pressure" on Uzbekistan regarding the Andijan events (the mass shooting of protesters in Uzbekistan in the city of Andijan on May 12-13, 2005), which was extremely negatively perceived by the latter, and the base was closed. Almost the same thing happened with the Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan.

At that time, US military bases were "knocked out" of the region. But Washington is not used to giving up. The events of 2021 related to the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the strengthening of the Taliban, the special operation in Ukraine, and the growing confrontation with China and Iran have renewed US interest in a military presence in the region.

It would be strange if there was no interest. It is in Central Asia that the interests of the nuclear powers - Russia, China, Pakistan, and India - intersect. There is also Iran, which promotes its projects in the region (such as the opening of the Ababil 2 drone production plant in Tajikistan).

Attention is supported by the presence of hydrocarbons in Central Asia. According to some sources, the region contains about 7.2% of the world's oil resources and 7% of gas resources.

With a high degree of probability, it’s possible to make a forecast about the US’ attempt to open a "second front". This means creating a hotbed of tension for Russia, which is conducting a special operation in Ukraine.

At the same time, Central Asia is not the only region where the collective West plans to "light a fire". Another one is the South Caucasus, where Azerbaijan has become extremely active. If at least one of these points manages to ignite a conflict, it will inevitably lead to the diversion of Russia's forces and resources to stabilise the situation.

Another background for the visit of the American delegation is the unfolding conflict in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan.

The interest in Tajikistan is not accidental. The country borders on rebellious Afghanistan, and numerous drug trafficking channels run through its territory, from which Washington previously received good money. For the sake of returning the latter, for the "seed", the United States is ready to allocate $60 million to Tajikistan for security, including through the supply of Puma reconnaissance drones.

US Special Representative for Reconciliation in Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad has clearly outlined the directions of the US’ work in the country. These are security and economic interests. If to consider that the country lives on the income from cotton cultivation and can only boast of huge reserves of ice and snow, the propagandised economic interests of the United States look very strange. But the cultivation and production of drugs from opiates as an economic interest looks more plausible.

The US can use its huge shadow revenues to promote "democracy" in the region. Speculation about US drug interests in Tajikistan is fuelled by information about Mark Pommersheim, who is new to the republic after the United States, and whose biographical information indicates that he belongs to the Western intelligence community.

The latter, as is known, supported the Afghan Northern Alliance, which is in opposition to the Taliban. Taking into account the anti-Taliban opposition with a large weight of Afghan Tajiks, there is a possibility that Pommersheim is the main opiate supplier in this region.

It is possible that he will try to revive the mentioned Northern Alliance under the name of the National Resistance Front (NRF), led by the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud (Tajik hero, head of the Northern Alliance, during the fighting in Afghanistan during the Soviet era).

Taking into account that attempts to "start a fire" in the region have already been made and repeatedly (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan), that Washington is interested in money from the sale of drugs, uranium and oil (the latter applies to most of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan), feeding the transition of the armed forces of the republics from the Soviet model (read - Russian) based on NATO standards (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan), it is highly likely that the US will step up its activities in the region.

Washington's strategy takes into account the increased likelihood of a positive outcome when efforts are dispersed to several countries, rather than focusing on one specific one. Further actions will be based on where the greatest impact will be noted. Whether it will be Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan or Tajikistan does not matter much.

All available forces and resources, including those transferred from neighbouring countries in the region, will be focused on the republic that has shown the greatest exposure to influence and expresses the maximum indicators of anti-government protest sentiments. The situation is complicated by the fact that the instability of the region is needed not only by the United States.

Active promotion in the region of Great Britain and Turkey has been noticed. These countries have their own interests, united by a single line – imperial ambitions. This is opposed by the positions of Russia and China, for which the stability of Central Asia is important. The result is a two-to-three ratio of Russia and China against the United States, Great Britain and Turkey.

Taking into account this ratio, as well as the need to weaken Russia through the creation of new hotbeds of tension, in the medium term from two to five years, we should expect either new "colour revolutions" or the military presence of NATO countries through the creation of military bases.