Dreaming about Ottomanism is an empty dream and a dangerous ideology

Yaşar Yakış is a well-known political figure in Turkey. He served as the Ambassador of the Republic of Turkey to Syria, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. In 2002-2003, he served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey. He finished his career as the Permanent Representative of Turkey to the UN in Vienna. After retirement, he became one of the founders of the now ruling Turkish Justice and Development Party (AKP). He was re-elected twice as a member of the Turkish Parliament.

Dear Mr. Former Minister, could you tell us about the image of Turkey that now dominates the country's ruling elites? Is it a military superpower, or, indeed, the imperial centre of the Turkic peoples of Central Asia or something else?

As a result of the referendum held on June 24, 2017, Turkey withdrew from parliamentary rule and switched to a presidential system. Since 2002, when the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power, Turkey has taken very important steps towards democratisation and joining the European Union.

However, a very important rule of social sciences says: "All power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely." This is called "force poisoning". As a result of the trend that began in 2008 and intensified after the 2011 general election, there has been a significant decline in the field of fundamental rights and freedoms in Turkey. And this decline continues to this day. The judicial power has been politicised, and there is an increase in corruption.

Serious mistakes were made in foreign policy. Turkey had no reason to participate in the Syrian war. If Turkey wanted to help alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people, it could do so by cooperating with the international community to create a "safe zone" on Syrian soil that would protect those fleeing the regime.

This safe zone should have been created by a decision of the UN Security Council. The region was supposed to be protected by peacekeepers from neighbouring countries and countries that are not superpowers. If this safe zone were established near the Turkish border, Syrians in need of urgent medical care could be sent to Turkey for treatment. And return them to their homeland, to a safe zone, at the end of treatment. If this were done, Turkey would not have to bear the huge financial burden caused by the Syrian refugees.

On November 20, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian military plane in Syrian airspace. The plane violated Turkish airspace for 17 seconds, but the direction of its flight was not towards a military or industrial facility in Turkey. And it was shot down at the time when it was turning towards the Syrian territory, being parallel to the border.

The then Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said that these actions were not a mistake, they were carried out legally, and if the situation repeats again, they will shoot down the object again. After Russia showed a sharp reaction, President Erdogan apologised to Russia in writing and took a de-escalating position, saying: "If we had known that this was a Russian plane, we would have acted differently." Shooting down a Russian plane in those conditions was a mistake. Those actions that need to be evaluated should be registered as false discretion.

Turkey's policy towards Egypt, Libya and Israel is also full of mistakes. As a result of these mistakes, Turkey found itself alone in its region and in the international community. Against this background, it is difficult for Turkey to act as a military superpower. Of course, it would be right to develop cultural and economic relations with the countries of Central Asia, but it is unlikely that Turkey can be a centre of attraction for these countries.

To what extent do Erdogan's geopolitical ambitions correspond to Turkey's financial and economic capabilities?

The Turkish economy has been in constant decline since 2008. While the value of the Turkish currency against the dollar in 2008 was 1.40 Turkish lira, today (August 16, 2021) it has grown to 8.60. This indicates a 600% loss in the value of the Turkish currency.

In 2008, Turkey was the 17th largest economy in the world and aspired to become one of the ten largest economies by 2023. However, today it has fallen to 20th and, perhaps, will fall lower to 21st. In this state of affairs, it is unrealistic for Turkey to pursue geopolitical ambitions.

In your opinion, how true is the point of view that Erdogan is conducting his own geopolitical project that is not related to the interests of the United States, Britain or some globalist elites?

It is natural for every country to take care of its geopolitical interests and try to promote them further. However, the wrong foreign policy at one point begins to harm itself. President Erdogan, thanks to his personal friendship, had a close but unstable relationship with former US President Donald Trump.

Under President Joe Biden, the issues that were ignored under Trump are likely to gradually begin to make themselves felt. While the issue of ensuring the security of the Kabul airport from Turkey is on the agenda, the problematic issues between Ankara and Washington are left for later. But sooner or later, these questions will come to the surface.

For example, there were no positive changes in the problems associated with the supply of weapons and ammunition to the Kurds in northern Syria by the United States. Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defence system remains an unresolved problem. The fact that Turkey was withdrawn from the fifth-generation F-35 fighter project poses problems in many aspects, both commercial, legal, and defence, and contradict allied relations within NATO.

Biden's anti-Turkish position on the events of 1915 [Armenian Genocide], it seems, will not be decided in the near future. The trial against the state-owned Turkish bank HalkBank, which violated the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States, continues today.

So far, no progress has been made in Ankara's attempts to achieve the deportation of Fethullah Gülen to Turkey. Ankara claims that it has sent 84 folders with legal justifications for its claim. However, the US authorities say that they could not find any evidence in these documents for the extradition of Gülen to Turkey. Turkish-American relations have many similar problems, and, in the foreseeable future, these relations do not show any hope of recovery.

In relations with England, the format is completely different. The UK is implicitly using its proximity with Turkey to create a situation in favour of NATO on the Black Sea, using the issues of Ukraine and Crimea.

What is the resource of this project? For example, Stalin had his own geopolitical and historical vision of the role of the Soviet Union. But another successor came, and this great destiny ended its existence. Does Erdogan have not just one great Yury Gagarin, but his own "squad of cosmonauts" who would continue his work? And if not, then why all this at all?

When Erdogan founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP), he presented his actions as a cadre movement. But as the party grew stronger and established itself, Erdogan abandoned his associates who did not fully agree with him. Some of his colleagues rejected Erdogan himself. As a result, the AKP has turned into a party with people who are blindly loyal to Erdogan. This is one of the most important problems of weak management in Turkey at the moment.

Among experts, there is an opinion that many processes in the world are, in fact, not the American, but the British elite. It is they who form the opinion of the world elite through closed clubs. What is your point of view on this issue?

England continues to influence the balance of power in the world with its well-established institutions. The period when it was called "the empire over which the sun never sets" is, of course, a thing of the past.

Nevertheless, compared to the size of its economy and population, England still retains its position as a country that exerts significant influence in the world and exercises it in a less confrontational style. This should be considered as an achievement of British diplomacy.

Will Turkey be accepted into the European Union?

Turkey's accession to the European Union is unlikely in the foreseeable future. It seems that there is no sincere will in this direction either from Turkey or from the EU.

For this reason, Turkey can use the accession process as a tool to restore order within the country, instead of planning to join the EU in the future.

Thus, Turkey can do everything possible to become a country where basic rights and freedoms are used by the wider masses, democracy is stronger, and the market economy becomes more transparent. If Ankara does this, the question of whether Turkey will join the EU or not will cease to be relevant. Then Turkey's relations with the EU will become similar to the relations of Switzerland and Norway with the European Union.

In your opinion, should the Istanbul Canal fall under the Montreux Convention?

The Montreux Convention aims to maintain the balance of power in the Black Sea in favour of the coastal countries. In fact, the convention limited the time during which warships of countries that do not have a Black Sea coast can remain in this sea. Up to 21 days. The tonnage of warships that coastal countries can keep in the Black Sea is also limited.

If we consider the issue from this point of view, it does not matter how the non-Black Sea power introduced its warships into the Black Sea - through the Bosphorus Strait or through the Istanbul Canal. It is important whether a third-country’s warship can be located in the Black Sea. It doesn't matter which way you get there. For this reason, the Istanbul Canal does not affect the balance of power in the Black Sea, which is the essence of the Montreux Agreement.

Moreover, the Montreux Convention covers not only the Bosphorus Strait, but also the Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles Strait. Thus, the restriction for foreign ships begins from the moment they arrive at the Dardanelles, even before they reach Istanbul.

What, in your opinion, should Turkish-Chinese relations be like?

The issue of the Uighurs is an acute issue between Turkey and China. It is known that there are some Uighurs who resort to violence for religious reasons. It is also known that China has extremes in its relations with this ethnic minority.

In this case, the most reasonable option is the following: Turkey and China should consult among themselves and agree on a framework that will allow this ethnic minority to freely exercise their religious and cultural rights.

Turkey should not incite the nationalist sentiments of the Uighurs in the Xinjiang region. China, in turn, should help the Uighurs to preserve and develop their cultural identity.

What, in your opinion, should Russian-Turkish relations be like?

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey and Russia developed a model of creative cooperation. The summary of this model of cooperation is as follows: the two countries have divided their relations into sections.

Thus, issues that go wrong in one sphere should not negatively affect good relations in another sphere where these relations are developing well. This model is still being implemented quite successfully. There is no reason to abandon it.

How do you see the role, mission and tasks of Turkey in the medium-term (10-15 years)?

Turkey is a medium-sized state with a strategic location in the Middle East region. Since 1946, Ankara has been trying to introduce a multi-party democracy, despite its many shortcomings. In addition to the decline in the level of democracy and fundamental rights by the Justice and Development Party (Erdogan's party) since 2011, this democratic experience is perceived by Turkish voters as an achievement.

From time to time, senior managers appear who are enthusiastic about concepts such as "neo-Ottomanism". However, this should be considered as the aspirations and extreme thoughts of a limited number of people that can be observed in any society.

Just as it is difficult to return tsarist Russia or the Soviet Union, dreaming about Ottomanism is an empty dream and a dangerous ideology. In the medium term, Turkey will continue to be a medium-sized state in the Middle East region.