London's new game: an Ismaili state may appear in the Pamirs

When there were reports that the Afghan province of Badakhshan bordering Tajikistan was visited by the Acting Minister of Defence Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob together with the Chief of the General Staff Qari Fasihuddin, and then there were reports that Kabul had transferred about 10,000 fighters to the border provinces of Balkh, Kunduz, Takhar and Badakhshan, the question immediately arose: what is going on?

Previously, the transfer of Taliban troops was explained by the activation of ISIS in this part of the country. And when there were battles in the northern provinces 150 kilometres from Dushanbe and 70 kilometres from the location of the 201st Russian military base in Bokhtar, the transfer of Taliban troops to the north of the country caused reasonable concern in the capitals of Central Asian countries and in Moscow. It was connected with the possibility of transferring destabilising factors to the CSTO control zone. But now Kabul does not make territorial claims to its northern neighbours and does not show signs of complication of relations with them.

There is another important point. In the north of Afghanistan, and geographically Badakhshan is part of the Pamirs, there are very few Pashtuns who are the ethnic base of the Taliban. This is a very specific province in terms of ethnic composition, traditions and religion, as well as political preferences. More than 200,000 Ismailis, adherents of the branch of Shiite Islam, live there. This could be treated calmly and cognitively in the context of the ethnic and confessional identity of Afghanistan. If not for one important "but".

In Europe, and then in Afghanistan itself, they "suddenly" started talking about the plans of the West to create an Ismaili state on the territory of mountainous Badakhshan, which could be headed by Aga Khan IV. He inherited this title from his predecessor of royal blood - the Persian king of the 18th century Fath-Ali Shah. By the way, the title is officially recognised by the British authorities, and the Aga Khan is a citizen of this country. Ismailis believe that the Aga Khan is the 49th prophet and heir of the Prophet Muhammad.

In this regard, many British experts argue that the project of creating an Ismaili state should not be treated as a geopolitical exotic, and that it is "quite realistic". Moreover, they record the activation of Ismailis not only in the Pamirs, but also in neighbouring Tajikistan.

In turn, the German orientalist Marcus Bennsmann calls for serious attention to the fact that the Ismailis have their own combat formations that took an active part in the events in Afghanistan. Naturally, the question arises - why did Britain need Badakhshan? It's simple: this is one of the surest ways to gain a foothold in the region based on the Ismailis, and in the future to implement a geopolitical project - to unite the Afghan and Tajik parts of the historical region of Badakhshan in order to form a new state.

According to the leader of the Afghan National Congress party, Abdul Latīf Pedrām, "it is Britain that seeks to unite the Afghan and Tajik parts of the historical region of Badakhshan in order to form a new state with a predominant Ismaili element”.

However, today we are still dealing only with attempts to start the implementation of this project. If the rumours about the Ismaili alliance with British intelligence are true, then the prospect of Pamir separatism should be taken seriously. It is no coincidence that the Taliban seek to control the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Similarly, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) performs the same function today. At the same time, experts from Central Asia note that the Taliban seek not only to strengthen their positions in the north of the country, but also to prevent the participation of non-Pashtun leaders in the division of power there - that is why they are strengthening their military presence in the north.

This is due to the fact that the current fragile political system and economy of Afghanistan are permeated by tribal institutions and the country is a patchwork of influential clans (kaums), tribes, ethnic groups. If there are projects to create a "Greater Pashtunistan" or a "Greater Waziristan", then why not an Ismaili state?

The paradox now is that after a 20-year military stay in Afghanistan, the United States and its allies plunged into historical archaism through the strengthening of tribal forces. Having regained power in Kabul, the Taliban are trying to create a centralised state - the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, headed by the supreme ruler. However, tough opposition to local rules, customs and even beliefs in some regions, especially in the Pamirs, in the "Shiite-Hazara kingdom", gives rise to phenomena such as the Ismaili state. Therefore, it is difficult to talk about what will happen next, because the Taliban are a movement split into several factions, and no one knows if they will be able to preserve the unity of Afghanistan.