Elena Panina: Will the recognition of the DPR and LPR save them from ethnic cleansing?

Vladimir Zelensky told the Washington Post that, in his opinion, the Russians are preparing to "occupy" Kharkov. And before that, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed the citizens of Russia with a personal appeal, like saying: please do not participate in the invasion of Ukraine!

Almost on a daily basis, Western journalists publish maps that appeared out of nowhere, where red arrows from Russian territory stretch to Kiev and Odessa. Now the State Department has sent an order to the staff of the American embassy in Kiev to leave the country urgently. And all this in the absence of Moscow's desire and motives to invade somewhere.

Before us is a textbook example of an information special operation. But what are its goals? There is such a point of view. The West, they say, is pumping up this wave in order to then announce a virtual "victory over Russia”. Russia allegedly really wanted to "invade", but the West threatened it and scared it to death. As a result, Moscow stopped, Ukraine was saved, the Russian bear was tamed.

At the same time, the matter is not limited to information manipulation. Under the pretext of "Russian aggression", the West is arming Ukraine to the teeth. At the same time, Moscow is being intimidated by complete economic isolation, a total economic blockade if it dares to protect the residents of Donbass. All this leads to the idea that the unprecedented processing of public opinion pursues a much more sinister goal. The West wants victory not only virtually.

The United States in particular and the West in general are provoking the Donbass crisis by all means, pushing Kiev towards more and more provocations in order to weaken Russia by any means. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack Donbass, and Moscow does not intervene, it will mean bloody ethnic cleansing, hundreds of thousands of refugees, a humanitarian catastrophe. And if Russia intervenes, it can be declared an "aggressor" and start a new round of sanctions war in order to inflict maximum political and economic damage and cause social tension in Russian society.

At the same time, it is important to understand that Washington is interested in ensuring that Donbass remains an unhealed wound, so that this conflict does not stop. So that with its help it could always keep Moscow in suspense, negating Russia's advantage in strategic nuclear forces and blocking opportunities for cooperation with leading countries of the East and West.

In turn, the Kiev regime, under the cover of its curators, is ready to implement its own bloody and cynical plan. The notorious “Ze team", which promised Ukrainians to build a "cool European country", has completely gone bankrupt.

Zelensky deceived his voters on all counts – the economy is in decline, housing and communal services prices are off the scale, peace will not be achieved, and Poroshenko, who he promised to bring to justice, is walking free.

The “Ze team" wants to get out of the situation and retain power by way of a "small and victorious war" in Donbass, in order to then declare its boss the new Napoleon and "the greatest Ukrainian in history”.

Thus, a dramatic situation is developing around Donbass. The desire of the West to weaken Russia through the Donbass conflict is superimposed on the desire of the Kiev regime to stay in power at any cost by seizing Donbass with subsequent ethnic cleansing following the Balkan model.

Let me remind you what we are talking about. This is the bloody ethnic cleansing in the Balkans during the 1992-1995 war on the territory of the former Yugoslavia, the killing of civilians, concentration camps and mass executions, the genocide of civilians.

At the same time, we are talking not only about the actions of terrorists and/or out-of-control "field commanders". With regard to the Serbs, this was a state policy, culminating in the "Storm" operation carried out by Croatia in 1995. Then the Serbian Krajina was destroyed, thousands of civilians of Serbian nationality were killed, more than 300,000 Serbs were expelled to the territory of the then Yugoslavia. Now only 1% of the number of Serbs who lived there before 1995 remain on the lands of the former Serbian Krajina.

Isn't this the scenario that inspires the Kiev regime today? An offensive on Donbass was supposed to take place back in April 2021. To this end, Ukraine purchased Turkish Bayraktar drones and began to form an offensive strike group. The Kiev authorities were sobered only by Russia's unequivocal readiness to protect Donbass in the event of an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the DPR and LPR. Another aggravation began this winter. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to build up the grouping in Donbass, it is being equipped with more and more new types of offensive weapons.

Ukraine has actually refused to implement the Minsk Agreements for a long time, the notorious "plan B" has been widely announced, stipulating not only an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Donbass, but also for the complete cleansing of the region from the Russian-speaking population. The measures for the so-called "de-occupation of Donbass", which were officially announced by the Ukrainian authorities, provide for the mass construction of concentration camps, filtration of the population, total Ukrainisation, and criminal punishment for those who have accepted Russian citizenship. Thus, the basis for the implementation of the Balkan scenario has been created at the state level.

What can oppose this?

To begin with, a small historical digression. In 2008, the Georgian authorities under the leadership of Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia in a similar situation. At that time, South Ossetia and Abkhazia existed in the status of unrecognised states. Russia officially recognised them only after repelling the Georgian aggression.

Taking into account such a precedent, it is appropriate to ask the question: did the attack of Georgian forces on Tskhinvali take place if the independence of South Ossetia had been previously recognised by Moscow? There is reason to believe that this would not have happened, Saakashvili would not have decided on such an adventure.

It is quite possible that this algorithm can work today in relation to Donbass.

Russia's recognition of the DPR and the LPR is not an easy decision, which can, in a certain sense, cause a diplomatic crisis. However, if to choose between this turn of events and the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, then the first option is certainly preferable.

On the other hand, such a decision can put an end to the talk about the "Russian invasion" and the "seizure of Ukraine", which the Western media are full of today and what the State Department and the Pentagon are saying on a daily basis. This step may also mean that Russia does not set itself any other goals than protecting the Russian-speaking population of Donbass, which has been subjected to genocide by the Kiev regime since 2014.

It is also worth recalling that it will soon be eight years since the residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine declared their sovereignty and the creation of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics in a general vote on May 11, 2014.

This happened in conditions when, after the coup d'etat and the overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych, the development of post-Soviet Ukrainian statehood was actually interrupted. De facto, a new state emerged that has no political connection with the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic and goes back to the state formation created by the accomplices of the fascists from OUN in the summer of 1941 on the Soviet lands occupied by the Wehrmacht.

Eight years of the existence of the DPR and LPR in the conditions of military aggression and economic blockade by Kiev is a sufficient period for the formation of a new statehood, even by Western standards.

Most NATO and EU countries recognised the independence of Kosovo, proclaimed in February 2008, that is, eight and a half years after the actual separation of the autonomous region from Yugoslavia. Turkey, a member of NATO, also recognised the self-declaration of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus after eight years of negotiations between Turkish Cypriots and the Greek authorities of Cyprus.

Thus, in case of recognition of the DPR and the LPR by Russia, this decision will not be some kind of unique precedent in international relations. There is no doubt that the West will hurry to explain that "this is different”.  But it is unlikely that such an argument will have a logical basis.

Of course, Ukraine's implementation of the Minsk Agreements would be a much more optimistic scenario in the current situation than the open withdrawal of the DPR and LPR from its composition. Unfortunately, there is practically no hope for its implementation. We see that the Kiev regime has a completely different goal – it dreams of repeating the destruction of the Serbian Krajina in the Donbass theatre of operations.

If the Kiev bosses are delusional – they need to be sobered up. If Russia's recognition of the DPR and LPR will serve to prevent Kiev's military aggression against Donbass, then this option deserves, at least, careful study. If there is no other way out, then this is one of the possible solutions.

Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute Elena Panina, especially for News Front