Three world powers have simultaneously deployed military bases in Tajikistan

Tajikistan is a Central Asian country that has the longest border with troubled Afghanistan. At the same time, its own armed forces are considered the weakest in the region. The latter became one of the main reasons for the appearance of a military base of the Russian Federation on the territory of Tajikistan.

We are talking about the 201 Russian military base (the official valid name is the 201st Gatchina Zhukov Order Twice-Red Banner Military Base) - a combined arms formation as part of the Central Military District. The base was formed in 2004 with a deployment in Dushanbe and Kurgan-Tube. The number of the formation is about 7,500 military personnel, which is almost equal to the number of the army of Tajikistan itself (about 9,000 military personnel).

The capabilities of weapons and military equipment of the 201st base significantly exceed many times the potential of the Tajik army both quantitatively and qualitatively. It is worth mentioning that in the arsenal there is: MLRS "Uragan", operational-tactical missile systems "Iskander-M", about 100 T-72B1 tanks, about 300 armoured vehicles of various types - armoured vehicles UAZ "Esaul", BMP-2M, armoured personnel carriers BTR-82A, artillery systems and anti-aircraft missile systems.

The base includes the anti-aircraft missile regiment, which in 2019 received a divisional set of S-300PS anti-aircraft missile systems. The air group is represented by Su-25 attack aircraft, Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters, as well as a battalion of "Orlan-10", "Eleron-3" and “Takhion" unmanned aircraft. The “Pole-21” radio suppression complex and the R-934BMV electronic warfare station complement the already considerable list. It is not surprising that specialists of the military base regularly train junior military specialists of the armed forces of Tajikistan in more than 14 specialties.

The group's capabilities make it possible to counter potential military threats both independently and in cooperation with the Tajik military. The danger is posed by about 70,000 militants of armed formations located on the border territory of Afghanistan. The possibility of their breakthrough into the territory of Tajikistan and further towards Russia is extremely high. Taking this into account, the official Dushanbe did not stop at ensuring its own security through Russia.

Besides us, Beijing is engaged in the military security of the country. A few years ago, it became known about the construction by the Chinese side of a special forces base of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan in the Vakhan Passage in the west of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. Because of this, nothing prevents China from strengthening the base with a contingent of 300-500 military personnel, several dozen armoured vehicles and UAVs in the interests of the same Dushanbe.

Beijing has long been engaged in ensuring security in Tajikistan, which is justified by the need to control the "Wakhan Corridor", the suppression of drug trafficking to China, preventing the interaction of Uighur separatists with the terrorists of the "Islamic Party of the Revival of Turkestan" and other groups acting both independently and in the interests of external forces.

Back in 2016, Beijing secured the construction of three commandant's offices, four border outposts, border posts and one training centre. In November 2018, a Centre for combating terrorism, extremism and separatism was opened in the capital of the republic with Chinese funds.

In any case, the base being created with the support of China will allow using drones and radar monitoring equipment to monitor the situation both in the Wakhan Corridor and in the north of Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as to promptly prevent unauthorised actions. Time will tell whether this will be carried out jointly by the security forces of Tajikistan and China, or only by the Tajik side.

Based on the available indirect information, we are inclined to the first option.

China proceeds not only from the interests of ensuring security from radicals. The Celestial Empire is the largest investor and exporter of the republic. Dushanbe's public debt to Beijing is $1.1 billion, accounting for 33% of the external debt. Thus, China also protects its investments.

What is important for us is that the interests of China and Russia coincide here. China's actions are not aimed at squeezing Russia out of both the country and the region.

We will mention separately the military base of India. If Russia and China are busy with security issues, then New Delhi's interests are focused on intelligence activities. Since the 90s, an Indian military hospital has been functioning in the city of Farkhor in the interests of the Afghan anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.

Currently, there is no reliable information about whether it is functioning or not, however, information periodically appears that India continues to use its military facility in Farkhor for the needs of the Indian intelligence community. The assumption is supported by the fact that negotiations with Tajikistan on its use were conducted by the Department of Research and Analysis (a formation of Foreign Intelligence of India) in order to monitor the situation in Afghanistan, as well as Pakistan.

In addition to the specified object, India used the Ayni airfield (Gissar), where Russia places combat helicopters. According to globalsecurity.org, the Indian Aviation Research Center (ARC), engaged in visualisation and reconnaissance, periodically uses this airbase to its advantage. Periodically, information appeared that the Indian Air Force Su-30 and MiG-29 combat aircraft were stationed at this base.

In the dry residue, we ascertain that there are military facilities of Russia, China and India on the territory of Tajikistan. China and Russia aim to ensure the military security of Tajikistan as a barrier between it and radical groups. India does not participate in this, focusing on the exploration of the territories of Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is a danger from Afghanistan.

In this case, the massive use of weapons and military equipment is possible only by the composition of the 201 military base of the Russian Federation. The nomenclature of military equipment of China and India does not allow this. At the same time, it is possible to expand the military bases of Beijing and New Delhi. At the same time, China has great opportunities, since the transfer of military equipment to India requires the approval of either Pakistan or China. Both of them are not explicit supporters of India.

In view of the common interests, there is no threat in their expansion for Russia. On the contrary, there is a possibility of their joint use against a common enemy. Starting with the interaction of existing military bases in Tajikistan, this can be transferred to a higher level when China, India and Russia will create a fully-fledged military alliance, taking under common control the territory of Eurasia, and the Indo-Pacific region.