The Black Sea Fleet has deprived the Ukrainian army of fuel

On the night of March 25, Ukrainian armed formations received a sensitive blow – the largest petroleum, oils and lubricants depot was destroyed in Kalinovka near Kiev. Ukrainian units operating both in the area of Kiev itself and throughout the central part of Ukraine were left without fuel.

According to the Ministry of Defence, the strike was carried out by sea-based missiles. Almost immediately it became known from eyewitnesses that this strike, like the previous one, was inflicted by the forces of the Black Sea Fleet from the Sevastopol area.

Thus, the Black Sea Fleet once again demonstrated both its own strike capabilities and the importance of an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in the form of the Crimean Peninsula, whose control allows projecting military force over a vast territory.

In a military sense, the lack of fuel will be extremely unpleasant for Ukrainian units. In the special military operation taking place on the territory of Ukraine, the manoeuvrability of the units is of great importance – the attacking Russian group is at least twice outnumbered by the detachments assembled by Kiev. This means that blocking Ukrainian units without the possibility of transferring units or regrouping on lines convenient for defence becomes one of the key tasks of the operation.

Nationalists in Mariupol, where the situation finally turned against them, were left without reinforcements. Even according to fragmentary information coming from the city, it can be concluded that the nationalists suffered the most serious losses – according to experts, no more than 5,000-7,000 of the 15,000-strong group based in the city, remained. The gradual collapse of organised resistance is also indicated by the frequent cases of attempts by enemy soldiers to get alone through encirclement, as well as an increasing flow of those wishing to surrender.

On the evening of March 24, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced the liberation of the Left-Bank district, during which the local administration was taken under control.

The use of operational-tactical complexes "Tochka-U" by the Ukrainian military continues in relation to settlements over which their control has been lost. From the point of view of war, such strikes rarely make practical sense – for example, as a result of a Ukrainian strike on Berdyansk controlled by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a large fire and explosion occurred in the port of the city, disabling one of the Russian large landing ships. According to unconfirmed official data, we may be talking about the Saratov landing ship (built in 1964), which previously delivered cargo of equipment and ammunition to Berdyansk.

American reconnaissance satellites are helping Ukrainian units to resist. From the point of view of information support, Russia is now waging war not so much against Ukraine as against NATO - read, against the United States. Back on March 3, the White House officially announced that the United States was transferring to Ukraine intelligence information "in real time". This circumstance, of course, should be taken into account, both when planning military operations and when ensuring the security of the bases of Russian units.

The shelling of Donetsk and other settlements of Donbass by operational and tactical complexes, including those with unconventional combat units, continues. Separately, it is worth noting the likely use of ammunition with white phosphorus by Ukrainian units.

Their very use contradicts the 1977 Additional Protocols to the Geneva Convention for the Protection of War Victims of 1949, prohibiting the use of white phosphorus ammunition if civilians are in danger as a result. Since Ukrainian units use phosphorus in the densely populated agglomeration of Kiev, the fact of a war crime in this case is beyond doubt.

Active artillery battles continue around Kiev, especially in the area of Irpen and Bucha, as well for Chernigov and Slavutich. After the capture of Izyum, there are all prerequisites for the intensification of the battles for Kharkov.

The DPR and LPR troops persistently "gnaw through" the defence on the Donbass front, there are heavy battles for Ugledar, Mariynka, Avdeyevka, Novoselki-2 and Novobakhmutovka, in the LPR area of responsibility there is an active battle for Popasnaya and Rubezhnoye.

There is a relative lull on the Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa line, which is also due to the lack of reliable information about the local situation. The enemy periodically tries to counterattack the positions of the Z units near Nikolaev, but there are no serious reasons for concern.

Combined with the lack of fuel and the gradual "knocking out" of armoured vehicles in night raids, the Ukrainian military is getting closer to the loss of mechanisation. Over the past night, Russian helicopters destroyed 24 pieces of military equipment, including 7 tanks, 5 infantry fighting vehicles and 3 armoured personnel carriers.

In general, the work of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation overnight led to the destruction of two command posts, 3 MLRS installations, two Buk M-1 air defence systems, one S-300 illumination and guidance radar near Dnepropetrovsk, two artillery depots, as well as 26 areas of military equipment concentration.

The destruction of Ukrainian planes and helicopters was not reported – over time, reports of the detection of the Ukrainian Air Force in the air become less and less.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 261 unmanned aerial vehicles, 204 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,587 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 163 multiple rocket launchers, 636 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,397 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

Outside of the fighting, the most important event can be considered the strengthening of the civil-military administrations emerging in the liberated territory of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of Ukraine.

In combination with a message from the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, which has started one-time payments of 10,000 rubles to Ukrainian state employees and unprotected categories of citizens, two "Ukraines" have actually appeared on the territory of Ukraine. This makes extremely unlikely the restoration of Ukrainian statehood in the form in which it existed before the morning of February 24, 2022.