After Ukraine, NATO is preparing new fronts in Europe and the Caucasus

After the extraordinary summit of NATO heads of state, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance Jens Stoltenberg made an important statement. According to him, "the allies agreed that we should increase our support for partners who are at risk of the Russian threat and invasion, including Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)."

Further: "Along with supporting Ukraine, which is currently at war with Russia, NATO is responsible for ensuring that there is no further escalation of the conflict, as this would be even more dangerous and destructive." This statement is notable primarily for the fact that the alliance has aligned Georgia and BiH.

From the point of view of geopolitical realities, it is difficult to make any claims to this diagnosis. Due to well-known historical reasons, Georgia and BiH are multi-ethnic and multi-confessional states. They are called “nerve nodes” in their regions, which in certain conditions initiated armed conflicts.

But the main thing is that the upheavals that have taken place there in recent decades and, perhaps, expected in the future will happen synchronously in the global aspect of the development of international relations. It is also a fact that we can talk about a model of peculiar "communicating vessels": the war in Bosnia, the declaration of independence in 2008 by the Albanian enclave of Kosovo inside Serbia, the 2008 Caucasian war in Georgia.

Up to a certain point, all this was perceived locally, in a specific regional context. A notable feature of the current situation is that the North Atlantic Alliance has begun to link Georgia and BiH into a single node, according to NATO terminology, through the "Ukrainian front". According to Stoltenberg, after the Ukrainian crisis, escalation is possible in the direction of the Balkans and Transcaucasia with the expansion of the space of conflict confrontation.

Let's assess the situation more specifically. Georgia declares its intentions to integrate into NATO under the pretext of an "imminent Russian threat." Nevertheless, the ruling Georgian Dream party has not joined the sanctions imposed by the West against Russia because of the Ukrainian crisis. She also does not listen to the opinion of Western consultants "to take advantage of the situation in Ukraine in order to regain control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia by force."

Georgian Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani said that "the use of force against Abkhazia and South Ossetia is not part of the plans of the Georgian government”. Moreover, the Minister stated that he and his team will continue to participate in the Geneva discussions on security. At the same time, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili began to distance herself from the government, articulating support for Ukraine. She appealed to NATO "not to forget the unprotected Georgia”. This is how the next fronde is formed in Tbilisi.

As for BiH, Milorad Dodik, a member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, said that his country, Republika Srpska, would not impose sanctions against Russia and close the skies for its aircraft. He also clarified: Republika Srpska (BiH consists of two entities - Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina) will not support the entry of Bosnia and Herzegovina into NATO, will adhere to neutrality, although in 2010 BiH adopted an Action Plan for membership in the alliance.

In response, the Balkans begin to be stirred. The Kosovo authorities are trying to use the "Ukrainian window of opportunity" to join NATO, and the local press writes "about the likelihood of opening a second front in Europe after Ukraine”.

Without going into the details of the current situation, we note: the danger is that Kosovars may see "political expediency" in the military version of the development of events. By the way, they asked for an "emergency" accession to the alliance the day after the start of Russia's special operation in Ukraine.

If the United States, after Ukraine, sets the task of plunging Europe into the abyss of chaos, and then provoking the Black Sea region in general and Transcaucasia in particular, an armed conflict may break out.

It is no coincidence that the pressure of the United States and NATO on Serbia has recently intensified. It is offered a project of the so-called Western Balkans. We are talking about the economic, political and military integration of all the countries of the region – Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania and unrecognised Kosovo under the control of the EU and the North Atlantic Alliance.

The goal is to stop any cooperation of these countries, especially Serbia, with Russia. In the meantime, NATO is working out the geopolitical formulas of the coming cataclysms in the spaces of Georgia and BiH. Stoltenberg publicly outlined this problem.

Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute