Erdogan's visit to the NATO summit in Brussels

Returning from Brussels to Ankara from an extraordinary NATO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shared his impressions of the forum and plans for the future with journalists on board the plane. He often resorts to such tactics in order to switch the attention of the Turkish public to a problem convenient for him through some details of the event that only he knows.

This was also the case this time, when he announced that he planned to "hold talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in the coming days" and "discuss with him the results of the NATO summit in Brussels”. Such a move was tactically calculated by Ankara, but, according to some Turkish experts, "only as a backup scenario of actions”.

The fact is that Erdogan was supposed to meet with US President Joe Biden at the NATO summit in Brussels. The parties discussed its details during a telephone conversation held the day before. But at some intermediate stage there was a breakdown. Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Jake Sullivan said that the presidents will not see each other. "We have not scheduled a bilateral meeting with President Erdogan," Sullivan said. “However, to you it is known how such events take place. They will be together at the NATO headquarters. And I expect Biden will have a chance to have brief conversations with a number of leaders."

If earlier Ankara received positive signals from Washington, demonstrated readiness for compromises and commitment to Euro-Atlantic solidarity, then quite "unexpectedly" Washington decided to update the problem with the S-400. Firstly, it offered the Turkish leadership to provide written guarantees that the S-400s would not be activated, promising after that the Turks would work with Congress on lifting sanctions and agree to supply F-35 fighters and Patriot anti-aircraft systems. Then it was proposed to transfer the S-400 to Ukraine.

Turkey responded with a categorical refusal, realising that such an action would lead to problems with Moscow. The head of the Turkish Defence Industry Department, Ismail Demir, said that "Turkey is capable of determining its own path and policy”.

But that's not the only problem. Ankara positions itself as almost the main mediator between Moscow and Kiev in the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. French President Emmanuel Macron is also acting in this direction at the same time. By the way, he and Erdogan held a meeting in Brussels. According to Turkish media, "they paid a lot of attention to the Ukrainian crisis and even considered the possibility of combining their mediation efforts in this direction”.

Erdogan made a sensational statement on board the plane, according to which, allegedly, there is progress on four points in dialogue between Moscow and Kiev (although it is not specified what kind of dialogue is in question), and a personal meeting between Putin and Zelensky on the territory of Turkey becomes a "possible reality".

However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov disavowed this message, saying that the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev "are moving painfully, because the Ukrainian side, although it seems to have expressed an understanding of those things that should be agreed during the negotiations, constantly changes its position and refuses its own proposals”. By all indications, there is a "third force" factor that constantly disrupts the agreements reached.

This suggests that Erdogan's mediation mission in the Ukrainian direction is being purposefully discredited by someone. It is no coincidence that Kiev has ceased to consider Ankara almost the main guarantor of its security and has built a whole queue from Washington, Berlin, London and even Jerusalem.

Erdogan has understood this and is taking revenge in his own way. At a press conference in Brussels following the NATO summit, he made it clear that there are serious disagreements in the collective West, openly hinted that sanctions against Russia "could not become a deterrent factor", that "the decisions taken at the NATO summit will not force Russia to change course towards Ukraine." He also stressed that "NATO is not a structure that will pose a threat to Russia or any other country”, calling for compliance with the "principles of indivisibility of security”.

After such theses, it’s possible to enter into dialogue with Putin. However, in the Ukrainian direction, Erdogan has to act with "empty hands". But he has every chance to play the "American card" in dialogue with Moscow.

Swinging like a pendulum between the centres of power is a familiar tactic for Ankara. So far it's working. But there is a saying in the Middle East: if you are excluded from the guest list for an important dinner, you need to check the menu. Maybe your name is already there.