Who kindles the lightning flashes of instability around Afghanistan and why

An alarming situation is developing around Afghanistan. Unexpected geopolitical lightning flared up.

The first one broke out on the Durand Line in the zone of the Afghan-Pakistani border, where armed clashes between units of the Pakistani army and the Taliban forces became more frequent. This line was established during the British Empire in 1893 as a result of a treaty between the Afghan Emir Abdur Rahman and the Secretary for Foreign Affairs of the British Colonial Administration in British India, Lord Durand.

In early January of this year, units of the Pakistani army invaded the territory of Afghanistan in the southwest in the Chahar Burjak area and tried to establish a strong point there. The Afghan border guards were ordered to attack. This was not the first such border incident. Islamabad motivated its actions by the fact that a branch of the Taliban movement located in Pakistan allegedly set itself the task of implementing the "Greater Pashtunistan" project in the image and likeness of the Taliban "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan". This is a paradox, especially since earlier the Taliban was a resource with which Islamabad tried to control Afghanistan.

The second lightning flash: just a few days ago, China's permanent representative to the UN, Zhang Jun, expressed "increased concern" about the intensification of activities in East Turkestan of the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan and the Islamic Party of Turkestan. Beijing is referring, of course, to the Uygur Xinjiang, which is part of China as the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR).

According to the Chinese diplomat, "the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan has created a security vacuum, this chaos has given terrorist forces a chance to expand their presence”.

This fact is noteworthy because earlier Beijing managed to negotiate with the Taliban, who transferred Uygur militants from an area located near a small section of the border of Afghanistan with China to the centre of the country. We are talking about the province of Badakhshan, located along the 76-kilometre border of the country with China. Now it seems that the Taliban or some part of them have begun to act in such a way that China has concerns about its security.

The events both on the Durand Line and in Badakhshan province demonstrate that someone is "unwinding" the Taliban in two directions at once — Pakistani and Chinese, although Islamabad and Beijing openly supported Kabul earlier. At the same time, various intra-Afghan political forces are harnessed to the geopolitical intrigue.

In the global context, different scenarios of further developments are already possible, in this region the United States will either try to find a modus vivendi with China, or choose a scenario of harsh confrontation, creating an "arc of instability" around the Celestial Empire in the form of Taiwan, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and stimulate protest sentiments in Hong Kong and Tibet.

Now, it seems that the United States has decided to change the vector of its efforts, take asymmetric actions and set fire to the "big South" in order to continue the process of escalating military and political tensions on another bridgehead - around Ukraine and Taiwan. And the decisive place in this plan is assigned to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Washington can start implementing the "Greater Pashtunistan" plan, raise Afghan and Pakistani Pashtuns, who make up more than 42% of the population in Afghanistan, and 15-20% in Pakistan, but most importantly, they live geographically concentrated side by side in two countries.

The US will try to revive the old movement calling for the unification of the Pashtun tribes of the two countries into a new Pashtun nation. Moreover, the "Greater Pashtunistan" can designate Afghanistan and Pakistan not only as a single theatre of military operations, but also tear these two countries into different parts and even provoke an Indian military intervention.

As for China, separatism has remained a serious problem throughout its history, one of the factors of destabilisation and a threat to the territorial integrity of the country.

The problem of the international legal status of Tibet, unrest in Hong Kong and statements about Taiwan's independence remain painful issues of Beijing's domestic and foreign policy. But Uygur separatism, which has deep historical roots and religious backgrounds, manifests itself in extremist activities and terrorist acts, remains perhaps the most dangerous form of ethnic separatism in the country.

That is, there are attempts with the help of a situational ally in the person of the Taliban to spread the Afghan destabilisation to Pakistan and China. The arc of instability created around Afghanistan may, in the event of a complication of the situation in Afghanistan, raise the question of the possibility of deploying some American military units in Central Asia. After leaving Afghanistan, the United States is looking for a way to maintain its presence in the region. Creating an "arc of instability" around Afghanistan is one of the options for such a solution.

Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute