A Russia-China alliance is completely natural even from the point of view of geography
On a Telegram channel, the opinion was expressed that "a wise and unhurried China uses a more impulsive Russia as a field for experiments”. In general, we do not agree with this thesis, except for the definition of China as "wise and unhurried", and we will express our opinion.
We believe that China's position towards Russia in connection with the Ukrainian crisis can best be defined by the phrase "pro-Russian neutrality". We didn't come up with this definition. The US State Department used in its press release dated May 2, 2022 under the title "People’s Republic of China Efforts to Amplify the Kremlin’s Voice on Ukraine”. But we like this definition, and it, in our opinion, most accurately reflects the existing realities.
Russia is not as tightly bound with economic ties to the West as China. A sharp break in these ties for China will be more painful and more destructive for its economy. Therefore, Beijing is now very closely studying the "Ukrainian case" and feeling it out.
China will support Russia both diplomatically and economically. It will buy our energy resources (by the way, it has also bought and is still buying from Iran, which is under American sanctions), as well as other goods it needs.
We will be able to buy from China those goods and services that have fallen under the Western embargo. However, not all of them. If a Chinese company is focused on the global market, and a large share of sales is not in Russia, then, most likely, due to the threat of Western sanctions, we will not receive these Chinese goods and services. But it’s possible to find a replacement in other, less well-known Chinese companies, in other countries, or produce by ourselves, which, of course, is better.
By the way, Russia's simple complete replacement of Western imports with imports from Asian countries instead of deploying its own production is the worst option for the development of our country in this situation.
Now about the thesis "Comrade Xi graciously gave his colleague Vladimir the go-ahead for the special operation." Disagree. It is to the Russian, not to the Chinese, borders that NATO is advancing. Ukraine was turned into a battering ram not against China (due to the lack of common borders), but against Russia. The strategic initiative in the world is now owned by the Anglo-Saxons, and they decided to deal with Russia first, and then with China.
The decision to conduct a special operation in Ukraine was made by the military-political leadership of Russia. However, a strong rear is needed for any operation. This role in this situation is assigned to China, and the military-political leadership of China agrees with it.
If the Anglo-Saxons had started with China, and not with Russia, then the role of the rear would have been assigned to Russia. Let's give one argument: the length of the Russian-Chinese border is 4209.3 km. The possibility of complete isolation of Russia or China with their strategic partnership is excluded. And an air, sea and land blockade with further suffocation is a favourite strategy of the Anglo–Saxons. Therefore, an alliance of Russia and China is a completely natural construction, even from the point of view of geography, not to mention geopolitics.
And we will express our thesis. Even without China, Russia will be able to survive and win an undeclared war with the West. Even if it will be very, very hard. As Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin said: "Russia has those undeniable advantages over other countries because it is directly governed by God, and if it is not, then it is unclear how it exists at all."
But China without Russia is unlikely to be able to survive in its current form. And in Beijing, we believe, they understand this, which is why they adhere to "pro-Russian neutrality.”
Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute