The Russian anti-sanctions response – what can it be?

With the special military operation in Ukraine, everything, in principle, is clear – the completion will be there and then, where it should be according to the operation Plan. Most likely, we will leave six, at most, eight western regions with the centre in Lvov under the name "Ukraine". In the rest of the territory, denazification (equal to de-Ukrainisation) and the arrangement of peaceful life will begin. This part of the Ukrainian non-state will eventually (in the future 5-10 years) either become Novorossiya, or it will become part of Russia, like Crimea.

Therefore, the economic and financial sanctions war unleashed against Russia by Western countries comes to the fore. And here the key question is to assess Russia's readiness for sanctions, how they can affect the country's economy in the future, and what countermeasures can be taken by the Russian side not only to neutralise these efforts of the West, but also to inflict unacceptable economic and financial damage to it.

As we have repeatedly emphasised in our publications, the taking of Ukraine under control in 2014 did not happen not because of the military factor – there would be no questions with this, but because of our financial and economic unpreparedness. At that time, Russia's economy and finances would not have endured such a rush from the West. Therefore, all these years we have been strengthening this particular direction of impact. Accordingly, the appointment of Mikhail Mishustin as Prime Minister can be considered one of the landmark cut-offs in preparation for the current sanctions pressure of the West.

What the government is doing today shows that there is no panic. Special groups have been created in areas that work out various scenarios for the development of events and countermeasures. Yes, there will be losses, especially at the first stage. But otherwise we couldn't stop the slow cooking of us like frogs and had to come into direct collision sooner or later.

If we comprehensively assess the pressure of the West, then it goes in four directions: a) a blow to the country's banking and financial system (including gold reserves); b) a trade blockade; c) a logistics blockade (goods and human flows); d) an information war.

Everything is clear with the information war – it has been going on for a long time and the measures to counter it are clear – the main thing for us is to keep the internal contour until the West opts for dialogue. And this will happen only after the successful completion of the special operation in Ukraine. Accordingly, measures were taken here promptly:

a) the bill on criminal punishment for fakes about the actions of the Russian Armed Forces was submitted to the State Duma on February 28, and already on March 4 it was adopted;

b) Roskomnadzor blocked a number of Russian and Western resources (“Voice of America”, “BBC”, "Deutsche Welle”, “Meduza”, “Radio Svoboda”, etc.) due to the spread of fakes in Ukraine. Two of the most odious Russian media outlets – “Echo of Moscow” and “Dozhd” - have been closed.

c) Facebook and Twitter are blocked. Youtube is next in line.

That is, the work was carried out with awareness of goals and objectives, efficiently and on time. The West has actually lost its information weapons on our territory.

We received the biggest blow to the banking system – our gold reserves were frozen (according to experts, in the amount of $300-350 billion). Who is guilty of this is clear and has been said repeatedly - by Sergey Glazyev, Mikhail Khazin, and other experts. In response, Moscow defaulted on some debts in rubles and refused to pay dividends to Western investors. So far, we are talking about the amount of $29 billion. Not $300 billion, of course, but also serious losses for the owners of this capital.

In addition, as experts' calculations show, we can block on our territory the Western property (factories, shops, equipment, etc.) of those companies that have announced a boycott to us, approximately just for the volume of our gold reserves blocked in the West, that is, for $300-350 billion.

The trade blockade is the withdrawal of global transnational corporations (TNCs) from the Russian market. And, as a matter of fact, isn't this what patriotic experts have been writing about for the last 20 years – that it is necessary to exit the system of non-equivalent trade exchange and create their own brands and brands? Yes, it was assumed that this could be done calmly, in a gentle way. But, as the past 20 years show, it did not work out calmly. Accordingly, a surgical operation was needed to save the patient.

Besides, look, Western global TNCs have left. China, Turkey, South Korea – remain. This is quite enough to cover the needs for consumer goods - clothing, electronics. And the rest we ourselves produce and will produce. The main thing is to develop the premium segment, and here nothing will prevent us from producing products of world brands without paying for the use of copyrights.

For example, we have already written everything in detail about planes – they remain on our territory and will serve domestic transportation. The main thing is not to fly abroad, where planes will be requisitioned in the name of the revolution. But - a) we have closed the sky for flights to Asia. As a result, Western airlines will be displaced by Asian ones and subsequent bankruptcy; b) leasing companies in Europe and the US will also be on the verge of bankruptcy – leasing payments from Russia will not be received. And this is 520 planes.

Within the framework of the internal trade and economic cycle, which Glazyev wrote about for many years, we will be able to make enterprises and firms work and produce products, and people receive salaries. And here we need a completely different Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. During the crisis, the created stock should be enough.

And finally about our trump cards. Oil and gas are rising in price. Accordingly, these revenues will be used to support the country's economy and remove the sanctions effects. But Western countries will also bear the costs. The population will pay 2-3 times more for gasoline and gas (in the US prices have already increased from $2.75 per gallon to 5), in Europe gas is traded at the level of $2400-2500 per 1 thousand cubic meters. Therefore, they have everything ahead of them.

And there is also the issue of nuclear fuel, which Rosatom supplies to the same USA. And this is 25% of electricity generation in America. There is also the issue of wheat and corn (Russia and Ukraine hold about 26% of the world market). There is a question of potash fertilisers (Russia and Belarus hold about 45-50% of the market). There will be no harvest without fertilisers. There is a question of inert gases (neon) for the production of microchips (90% of the market in Russia). The question of palladium for the same microchips, titanium for airplanes, etc.

That is, we have a lot of retaliatory moves, the main thing is to work them out competently and systematically, and then in six months we will see who will lose more. The West has already introduced everything it can, but our counter-sanctions are delayed, but no less dangerous, especially on the eve of next winter.

Russky Demiurg @rus_demiurge specially for Druid @wisedruidd